Ballymount Boy picked in the Greenham Stakes

Ballymount Boy picked in the Greenham Stakes

BALLYMOUNT BOY is the top bet in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury. He won as the favourite in a listed company at Doncaster last time and has never run out of the first two below G1 level. The unbeaten ZOOM ZOOM steps up to G3 after his listed level last time but at 15/8 he is on the short side. ARMY ETHOS was the 2/9 beaten favourite last time so 15/2 is a nice odds for him.

Greenham Stakes at Newbury 3YO (G3) 7f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER                    ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023  Isaac Shelby                   15/2     117x    7th G1 Newmarket

2022  Perfect Power                  6/4f     1511x  1st G1 Newmarket

2021  Chindit                            7/4f      1119x   9th G1 Newmarket

2020 No race

2019  Mohaather                       9/2       211x     1st G3 Newbury

2018  James Garfield                 3/1      4210x    Unplace Del Mar (US)

2017 Barney Boy                      5/2       1x         1st Haydock

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Sunshine in Paris hard to beat in the All Aged Stakes

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Sunshine in Paris hard to beat in the All Aged Stakes

Chain of Lightning and Southport Tycoon the dangers

SUNSHINE IN PARIS finished out of the first three for the first time in the T J Smith Stakes when he was less than a length behind CHAIN OF LIGHTNING in fifth place. Sunshine in Paris is unbeaten at 1400m in his only run at that distance and that was at Randwick. She has a 50% strike-rate and that is what you need to look for in a race such as this. SOUTHPORT TYCOON and CHAIN OF LIGHTNING were both last race Group 1 winners and will be hard to roll here but Southport Tycoon won at 1600m last time and may find others too sharp here.

All Aged Stakes at Randwick (WFA) 1400m (G1)

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 Gigakick 15×32 2^nd T J Smith Stakes 

2022 Cascadian 1559 9^th Doncaster Handicap

2021 Kolding 2250 Unpl George Ryder Stakes

2019 Pierata 3X525 5th T J Smith Stakes

2018 Trapeze Artist 1431 1st T J Smith Stakes

2017 Tivaci 0154 4th T J Smith Stakes

2016 English 6X113 3rd T J Smith Stakes

2015 Dissadent 6X313 3rd Futurity Stakes

2014 Hana’s Goal 83X06 4th Doncaster Handicap

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Newmarket-Dance Sequence odds-on for the Neil Gwyn Stakes

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Newmarket-Dance Sequence odds-on for the Neil Gwyn Stakes 

The unbeaten DANCE SEQUENCE is the odds[-on favourite for the Neil Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket. Both of her two wins was at the same course and distance as Wednesday’s race. William Buick will ride Dance Sequence. The Irish filly MATRIKA is worth backing at 9/2; she is the second favourite. Matrika was the 2/5 favourite when winning at the Curragh last time. Ryan Moore will ride her.

Neil Gwynn Stakes at Newmarket 3YOF (Listed) 7f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Mamma’s Girl 16/1 1x 1^st Newmarket maiden

2022 Cachet 15/8f 7234x 4^th G1 Doncaster

2021 Sacred 6/1 2228x 8^th G1 Newmarket

2020 No race

2019 Qabala 100/30 1x 1^st Newmarket maiden

2018 Soliloquy 4/1 21x 1^st Novice

2017 Daban 12/1 1x 1^st Novice Kempton

2016 Na Thra 5/4f 112x 2^nd G1 Newmarket

2015 Osaila 4/1 1513x 3^rd G1 France

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Sail Away hard to beat in the Scottish Grand National on Saturday

Sail Away hard to beat in the Scottish Grand National on Saturday

If you are going to have a bet in the Scottish Grand National then I would strongly advise you to pay close attention to the weather. The reason being that SAIL AWAY is a very good chance of winning if he got firm going. It is likely that he will be withdrawn if the going is heavy. This horse has never gone a bad race on firm going. It is only when it gets  a bit heavy that he struggles. The other factor to note is that he has raced at Ayr just once and was successful that day. It was a year ago. He has a good record at 3 miles+ so the 4 mile distance should not be a problem. All of this has not gone unnoticed because Sail Away is one of the market leaders at 12/1.

Scottish Grand National (Ayr) 4 miles

YEAR WINNER FORM ODDS LAST RACE

2023 KITTY’S LIGHT 8731 4/1j 1^st Elder Chase Newcastle

2022 WIN MY WINS 5P11 13/2CF 1st Elder Chase Newcastle

2021 MIGHTY THUNDER 1612 8/1 2nd  Midlands Grand National 

2020 no race due to coronavirus

2019 TAKING RISKS 2361 25/1 1st Carlisle

2018 JOE FARRELL 2431 33/1 1st Newbury

2017 VICENTE 669F 9/1J Fell Aintree Grand National

2016 VICENTE 3145 14/1 5th Novice Chase Cheltenham

2015 WAYWARD PRINCE PP13 25/1 3rd Class 2 Ch Ascot

2014 AL CO 1020 40/1 10th C3 Ch Doncaster

2013 GODS ME JUDGE 1213 12/1 3rd of 15 Cheltenham 

2012 MERIGO 8011 15/2 1st of 6 Ayr

2011 BESHABAR 1B12 15/2 2nd of 16 Cheltenham

2010 MERIGO 17D6 18/1 6th of 18 Doncaster

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Heavy track horse racing betting systems

Horse Racing Systems for wet weather

A heavy track can really throw a dampener on your selection process if you are not on the ball. It is time to consider some systems for those heavy tracks. Here are some horse racing betting systems to try in heavy going.

System A

The 3 win+ system

Look for horses that have won at least three races in heavy going and back them. If there is more than one qualifier in the same race then go for the one that has won the most races in heavy going. The alternative is to back more than one horse in the same race and this is worthwhile if the odds are reasonable.

System B

66 percent rule system

Look for horses with a 66%+ record of finishing in the first three in heavy going. Looking at past books, I have seen qualifiers with records such as H(3-1-1) H(5-2-2) H(3-1-2) etc

System C

Only Win system

Back any horse who has only won in heavy going and in no other type of going.

System D

The twenty percent rule

Note all of the horses in each race who have won in heavy going and back those which have a career strike-rate of 20%+ in all going types.

System E 

The bolter

In maiden races, back a three year old who has never finished in the money and is having it’s first start in heavy going.

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Via Sistina picked at Randwick

Via Sistina picked at Randwick

It is hard to go past the two European imports VIA SISTINA and PLACE DU CARROUNSEL in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick on Saturday. They finished first and second respectively in the Ranvet Stakes on their Australian debuts and can be expected to improve. They also bring solid English form into the race. The best of the remainder has to be CASCADIAN because he has such a good record at Randwick and is improving with each race.

Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick G1 2400m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 Dubai Honour 426X1 Won Ranwet Stakes

2022 Think it Over 1424 Fourth Tancred Stakes

2021 Addeybb X11X2 Second Ranwet Stakes

2018 Winx 11X11 Won George Ryder Stakes

2017 Winx 1X111 Won George Ryder Stakes

2016 Lucia Valentina 915X4 Fourth Coolmore Classic

2015 Criterion 53X32 Second George Ryder Stakes

2014 Its a Dundeel 8X232 Second Tancred Stakes

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#queenelizabethstakes #randwick #sydney

Olentia picked for the Queen of the Turf Stakes

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Olentia picked for the Queen of the Turf Stakes

Zougotcha and Atishu big chances

OLENTIA score a convincing win in the Emancipation Stakes two weeks later and can win again. She is under rated and it is just a matter of whether she can beat the hot shots in this. ZOUGOTCHA and ATISHU will be well-supported. They have Group 1 form. Zougotcha won the Coolmore Stakes last time while Atishu ran third in the Australia Cup. All three are trained by Chris Waller, who seems to have a very good record in the mares races. SEMANA is the other horse to consider after some good recent form.

Queen of the Turf Stakes Group 1 (F&M WFA) 1600m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 Atishu 123X2 2^nd Emancipation Stakes

2022 Nimalee 16X25 5^th Emancipation Stakes

2021 Nettoya 0X879 9^th Doncaster Handicap

2020 Result unavailable

2019 Kenedna 01X93 3rd Sunline Stakes (MV)

2018 Alizee 1604 4th Vinery Stud Stakes

2015 Amanpour 23X82 2nd Emancipation Stakes

2014 Diamond Drille 5814 4th Emancipation Stakes

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Sporting Chance selected to win the Hawkes Bay Cup

Sporting Chance picked in Hawkes Bay Cup

Titled each way chance

SPORTING CHANCE won at Ellerslie two weeks ago, albeit in a lower grade but I think he can step up and win the Hawkes Bay Cup which looks very open. This horse has a 66441 form line and is improving with every run. He recent win was at the distance and he drops in weight.

TITLED has an excellent form line of 2121 with his recent win being 5/04. He also drops in weight and if it rains then that would play in his favour.

CHEVAL DE FOUDRE won last time out 6/4 and carried a big weight. He drops from 59kg to 53kg. AS a four year old he is a likely improver as a stayer.

Backing these three horses may be the way to go.

Hawkes Bay Cup at Otaki 2200m (G3)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 FIERCE FLIGHT 1322 2^nd NZ St Leger

2022 SWORDS DRAWN 0715 5^th Auckland Cup

2021 BIG MIKE 909X5 5^th OHCP Awapuni

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 FELAAR (7) 3512 2nd R82 Tauranga

2018 RICHIE MCHORSE (10) 2212 2nd R75 Matamata

2017 FIVE TO MIDNIGHT (2) 3452 2nd Awapuni Gold Cup

2016 CHENILLE (9) 2113 3rd Te Aroha Cup

2015 CLASSICOROC (6) 3297 7th Awapuni Gold Cup

2014 INTRANSIGENT (2) 99X88 8th BOP Cup

2013 SURVIVED (13) 0111 1st Manawatu 3YO Classic

2012 FLEMINGTON (16) 5113 3rd R85 Wanganui

2011 DOM DOMINGO (11) 0521 1st R90 Ellerslie

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Nepheti hard to beat at Riccarton

Nepoheti has the form line to take out the NZB Airfreight Stakes at Riccarton providing that the track is good on Saturday, otherwise it may pay to look elsewhere. Nepheti has won three of her six races, all on good tracks with the most recent being at Ellerslie 30/03. Tis is a race which last race winners have a good record in. It’s Doris, Kindling Spark, and Nikaia are last race winners with a show of winning. Kindling Spirit may be the best of the trio because she has won at the course and distance. She is also going for her third win on end.

NZB Airfreight Stakes at Riccarton 3YOF listed 1600m

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE R

2023 MISS LAYLA 1st Ashburton maiden 63

2022    REPUTABELLE               1st 3YO listed Wingatui            71

2021 ATISHU 1st 3YO Riccarton 76

2020 No contest due to coronovirus lockdown

2019 SECRET ALLURE Unplaced Lowland Stakes 79

2018 RESPIN 1st maiden Ashburton 63

2017 SHOWMEUP 1st R65 Invercargill 70

2016 NO PUSHOVER 1st maiden Matamata 63

2015 CONSENSUS unpl NZ Oaks (Group 1) 67

2014 MADAM VICTORIA 1st 3YO listed race Wingatui 75

2013 KISSES 1st Rotorua Maiden 63

2012 ORTEM FIRE 2nd 3YO listed race Wingatui 73

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 #riccarton #bettingtips #horseracing

Aintree Bowl-Gerry Colombe fancied

Aintree Bowl-Gerry Colombe fancied

(thursday)

GERRY COLOMBE is my pick for Thursday’s Aintree Bowl. He has never finished out of the first two in Chases in eight starts and that is good enough for me. He is the current favourite at 11/8.  He has been beaten just once as favourite and that was when he finished a close second at Cheltenham last year. The second favourite is SHISKIN, the winner of this race last year. He has won 10 of 15 starts but looking through his form line his defeats usually come at G1 level. Still, he is the one for Gerry Coombe to beat and at 7/2 he represents good odds if you are tempted to oppose the favourite

#aintree #aintreebowl #nationalhunt

Aintree Bowl Chase at Aintree 3m1f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Shishkin 7/4f P312 2nd G1 Cheltenham

2022 Clan Des Obeaux 13/2 1123 3rd G2 Newbury

2021 Clan Des Obeaux 5/2f 8232 2nd G2 Newbury

2020 No race-Cheltenham

2019 Kemboy 9/4f 111U Unseated rider Cheltenham

2018 Might Bite 4/5f 1112 2nd G1 Cheltenham

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