Sporting Chance selected to win the Hawkes Bay Cup

Sporting Chance picked in Hawkes Bay Cup

Titled each way chance

SPORTING CHANCE won at Ellerslie two weeks ago, albeit in a lower grade but I think he can step up and win the Hawkes Bay Cup which looks very open. This horse has a 66441 form line and is improving with every run. He recent win was at the distance and he drops in weight.

TITLED has an excellent form line of 2121 with his recent win being 5/04. He also drops in weight and if it rains then that would play in his favour.

CHEVAL DE FOUDRE won last time out 6/4 and carried a big weight. He drops from 59kg to 53kg. AS a four year old he is a likely improver as a stayer.

Backing these three horses may be the way to go.

Hawkes Bay Cup at Otaki 2200m (G3)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 FIERCE FLIGHT 1322 2^nd NZ St Leger

2022 SWORDS DRAWN 0715 5^th Auckland Cup

2021 BIG MIKE 909X5 5^th OHCP Awapuni

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 FELAAR (7) 3512 2nd R82 Tauranga

2018 RICHIE MCHORSE (10) 2212 2nd R75 Matamata

2017 FIVE TO MIDNIGHT (2) 3452 2nd Awapuni Gold Cup

2016 CHENILLE (9) 2113 3rd Te Aroha Cup

2015 CLASSICOROC (6) 3297 7th Awapuni Gold Cup

2014 INTRANSIGENT (2) 99X88 8th BOP Cup

2013 SURVIVED (13) 0111 1st Manawatu 3YO Classic

2012 FLEMINGTON (16) 5113 3rd R85 Wanganui

2011 DOM DOMINGO (11) 0521 1st R90 Ellerslie

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Nepheti hard to beat at Riccarton

Nepoheti has the form line to take out the NZB Airfreight Stakes at Riccarton providing that the track is good on Saturday, otherwise it may pay to look elsewhere. Nepheti has won three of her six races, all on good tracks with the most recent being at Ellerslie 30/03. Tis is a race which last race winners have a good record in. It’s Doris, Kindling Spark, and Nikaia are last race winners with a show of winning. Kindling Spirit may be the best of the trio because she has won at the course and distance. She is also going for her third win on end.

NZB Airfreight Stakes at Riccarton 3YOF listed 1600m

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE R

2023 MISS LAYLA 1st Ashburton maiden 63

2022    REPUTABELLE               1st 3YO listed Wingatui            71

2021 ATISHU 1st 3YO Riccarton 76

2020 No contest due to coronovirus lockdown

2019 SECRET ALLURE Unplaced Lowland Stakes 79

2018 RESPIN 1st maiden Ashburton 63

2017 SHOWMEUP 1st R65 Invercargill 70

2016 NO PUSHOVER 1st maiden Matamata 63

2015 CONSENSUS unpl NZ Oaks (Group 1) 67

2014 MADAM VICTORIA 1st 3YO listed race Wingatui 75

2013 KISSES 1st Rotorua Maiden 63

2012 ORTEM FIRE 2nd 3YO listed race Wingatui 73

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Henry Hubber hard to beat at Riverton

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Henry Hubber hard to beat at Riverton

HENRY HUBBER is the one to beat in the Open Sprint at Riverton. He is a real Autumn specialist who won this very race last year. 1200m is his go and so is soft going. I understand that it is heavy at Riverton so that will suit him down to the ground. Watch for LIghtning Jack though. He is a class horse who is capable of figuring in the finish.

The AP Restaurant and Bar Aparima Handicap 1200m

YEAR WINNER FORM TRAINER

2023    Henry Hubber                            S McKay

2022    Meara Mary                   0650   M & M Pitman

2021 Midnight Runner 1207 J Phillips

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Dynamic 2476 M & M Pitman

2017 Jazzman 9162 M & M Pitman

2016 Jazzman 3654 M & M Pitman

2015 The Knight 8013 B Tapper

2014 Fiatt 4113 Patterson/Horrell

2013 El Chico 4517 M Pitman

2012 Our Genes 5037 M Pitman

2011 Sub Prime 5178 M Pitman

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Magnifique the one to beat in the Kaimai Stakes

Magnifique the one to beat in the Kaimai Stakes

MAGNIFIQUE ran a slasher in the listed Wairarapa Stakes, a weight-for-age race for fillies and mares last time out. She is a quality mare ready to step up here. Before Christmas she won two races on end, the second by over eight lengths at Trentham. On the strength of that she was sent out a $1.60 odds-on favourite for the Manawatu Cup but finished down the track. She is expected to be well-supported here and rightly so. Two others in this race who contested the Wairarapa Breeders Stakes are KELLY COE (8th) and VAL DI ZOLDO (5th). Kelly Coe has 58kg which is a lot for a mare but she has proven that she is able to carry weight while Val Di Zoldo is a promising four year old mare who is capable of causing a boil over. Some sting out of the going may help her.

Kaimai Stakes OPN HCP at Matamata (listed)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM WEIGHT LAST RACE

2023 COLORADO STAR 8441 56.5kg 1st Taranaki Cup

2022 LANGKAWI 9117 53kg 7^th Ashhurst/Pohinga Cup

2021 PAISLEY PARK 9504 53kg 4^th Taranaki Cup

2020 JOE’S LEGACY 4222 53kg 2nd R82 Te Aroha

2019 VIN DE DANCE x90x4 53.5kg 4th Taranaki Cup

2018 SHOW THE WORLD 06×42 53kg 2nd OHCP Te Rapa

2017 VON TUNZELMAN 4212 53kg 2nd OHCP Te Rapa

2016 GUARANTOR 9321 54kg 1st R85 Te Rapa

2015 BENZINI 4401 55kg 1st R85 Wairarapa

2014 PRINCESS KYOTO 0810 53kg Unpl Marton Cup

2013 GUESS WHAT 3232 53kg 2nd R75 Ellerslie

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Sestina picked for the Summer Cup

Sestina picked for the Summer Cup

SESTINA is in the best form of her life and with a form line of 3112 she is the obvious winner of the Summer cup at Invercargill. GENERATION JOY is worth backing for a saver. She finished third in the same race as Sestina and is 3.5kg better off at the weights. A bit of rain will help Generation Joy more than Sestina.

Summer Cup at Invercargill 1600m

(Southern Mile Qualifier)

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 EARS BACK 1511 1st Riccarton

2022 GERRY JOYCE 0902 2nd Invercargill

2021 HE’S GOT POWER 4214 4^th White Robe Lodge Stakes

2020 QUINTUPLE TWINS 1111 1st R72 Riccarton

2019 KILOWATT 3641 1st R75 BM Invercargill

2018 FASCINATE 2739 9th White Robe Lodge Stakes

2017 ACCIDENTAL OFFSIDE 3152 2nd R75 Wingatui

2016 FIVE KINGS* 4045 5th OHCP Riccarton

2016 SIR SINGO* 3514 4th OHCP Riccarton

2015 KING PRAWN 4747 4th Dunedin Gold Cup

2014 ORTEM FIRE 3714 4th R75 Wingatui

2013 PETTY LANE 1819 9th White Robe Lodge Stakes

2012 CHAPABELLA 0108 8th Gore Cup

*Dead-heat for first

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Ears Back picked at Invercargill

Ears Back picked at Invercargill

The Radiant One the danger

EARS BACK and THE RADIANT ONE are the two to beat in the Southland Stakes at Invercargill on Saturday. They both raced at black type level last time out with Ears Back finished within 2 lengths of Perfect Scenario in the White Robe Lodge Stakes 2 weeks ago and The Radiant One winning the Timaru Stakes. Ears Back carried 57kg and drops to 54kg under the handicap conditions. The Radiant One is up 2kg. If there is some rain about then WATCH OUT is the one to note. She is a real change of season horse and is likely to win a race sometime during Autumn.

Southland Stakes at Invercargill 1400m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Eptimum $3.20 4811 1st Wingatui

2022 The Gift $5.20 7892 2nd Invercargill

2021 Imblaze $10.80 4811 1st Gore

2020 Shirley Maude $2.50 9242 2nd White Robe Lodge Stakes

2019 Tomm Jones $6.10 3122 2nd Timaru Stakes

2018 Coulee $3.40 3624 4th White Robe Lodge Stakes

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Verismo and Astradeel the ones to back in the Invercargill Gold Cup

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Verismo and Astradeel the ones to back in the Invercargill Gold Cup

VERISMO and ASTRADEEL are both nicely placed in the Invercargill Gold Cup providing that they get track conditions to suit. Verismo has won twice and both were on good going. She finished fourth in the Dunedin Gold Cup last time on a slow 7 track. Joe Doyle rode her that day and she must have been considered a leading chance for him to travel to the meeting to ride her. On Boxing Day Verismo ran a good race against Trust in You in the Special stayers race at Pukekohe. That was a slow 6 which is not ideal. Astradeel on the other hand would prefer the going to be at least a slow 6. He finished 6th in the Dunedin Gold Cup. It shou;ld be noted that with 4kg off he will carry 50kg which means that he is 10kg better off at the weights than the Dunedin Gold Cup winner SHOCKALIA. At Wingatui, Shockalia carried 53kg and will have 60kg. I cannot back him under those circumstances.

Invercargill Gold Cup 2600m 

YEAR WINNER FORM DIV LAST RACE WEIGHT

2023 DUNHILL 2254 $5.90 6th Dunedin Gold Cup

2022 ASATHOUGHT 5613 $3.70 3^rd Dunedin Gold Cup 54kg

2021 OREPUKE LAD 0333 $6.00 3rd Dunedin Gold Cup61kg

2020 BEAM ME UP SCOTTY 3830 $42.60 Unplaced R65 Gore 54kg

2019 OREPUKE LAD 3321 $1.80 Won Dunedin Gold Cup55kg

2018 TANIWHAI 6681 $14.10 Won R75 Gore 54kg

2017 LA NOUVELLE 3381 $2.80 Dunedin Gold Cup 57kg

2016 MOTORBIKE MIKE 5391 $9.20 Won Gore Cup 59kg

2015 THE BISHOP 4341 $6.00 R75 Wingatui 54kg

2014 OUR BEE JAY 0176 $5.10 Wellington Cup 59kg

2013 ELITE STREET 7111 $4.30 Wingatui R75 54kg

2012 GARGAMEL 3503 $19.30 3rd Invercargill 54kg

2011 YA DREAMIN JONESY 2611 $5.90 R80 Wingatui 54kg

Others;

2008 RELAMPAGO 1341 $13.30 R80 Wingatui 52kg

2002 AMAZING CHARM 4820 $20.15 Dunedin Gold Cup 52.5kg

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Beau Brummel picked for the Southland Guineas

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Beau Brummel picked for the Southland Guineas

Arberlour and Collect the Cash major chances

Ta Akau will take just one horse to the Southland meeting and that is BEAU BRUMMEL who is on a 7-day backup. He was a dominant winner of a maiden at his third start last week and will take a lot of beating here. ABERLOUR won the Gore Guineas last time. She has a consistent record of 80% 1, 2, 3 finishes. THe extra distance should not worry and neither will any rain. COLLECT THE CASH won the Dunedin Guineas last time and is a chance to win again. This is a race where form from the Dunedin Guineas has worked out well in the past.

Southland Guineas 1600m 3YO Listed

YEAR WINNER FORM DIV LAST RACE STARTS

2023 PRESS CHARGES 1 $21.30 1st Wingatui maiden 1

2022 PALMETTO 4441 $2.00 1^st Dunedin Guineas 7

2021 CHOKITO 1235 $6.00 5^th Dunedin Guineas 9

2020 LIGHTNING JACK 8911 $3.10 Gore Guineas 7

2019 WEAPONRY 1134 $3.60 Dunedin Guineas 4

2018 GLOBAL THINKING 4162 $2.70 Dunedin Guineas 10

2017 RESIDENTIAL 1301 $5.20 Dunedin Guineas 9

2016 REPLIQUE 9412 $5.20 Dunedin Guineas 5

2015 BELLE MIRAAJ 3314 $1.90 Dunedin Guineas 7

2014 INCLUDE 8181 $4.30 Dunedin Guineas 6

2013 PLATINUM WARRIOR 5131 $2.00 Dunedin Guineas 11

2012 NATUZZI 5413 $3.40 Dunedin Guineas 5

2011 CHAMPAGNE NEEDED x834 $51.90 Dunedin Guineas 5

Others;

2008 FRITZY BOY 4×111 $1.60 Dunedin Guineas 9

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Avondale Guineas-Orchestral picked

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Orchestral picked for the Avondale Guineas

ORCHESTRAL has an outstanding record of three wins from six races. She has finished second twice meaning that  she has finished out of the money just once. She is the obvious choice after her easy win in the Magic Millions three year old at Ellerslie last time out. She is a class filly. JUST AS SHARP is a terrific chance. He came from a fair way back for third in the Magic Millions and looks as though the extra distance will suit him down to the ground. Prior to that he finished within two lengths of Quintessa in the Group 1 Levin Classic. The other three I like are the Waikato Guineas winner ASCEND THE THRONE, the second horse in the Waikato Guineas MOSINVADER, and the Australian INTERLINKED.

Avondale Guineas 2000m G2 3YO (Pukekohe)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

20023 DESERT LIGHTNING 4253 3rd Magic MIllions

2022 LA CRIQUE 1311 1^st Desert Gold Stakes

2021 ROCKET SPADE 4512 2^nd OHCP Te Rapa

2020 DRAGON LEAP 121 1st Great Northern Guineas

2019 SURELY SACRED 1215 5th Karaka Millions 3YO

2018 ON THE ROCKS 1138 8th Karaka Millions 3YO

2017 GINGER NUTS 1×401 1st Te Teko

2016 RANGIPO 4131 1st Waikato Guineas

2015 MONGOLIAN KHAN 0111 1st Waikato Guineas

2014 PUCCINI 4141 1st Waikato Guineas

2013 VALBUENA 1565 5th Wellington Stakes

2011 ICEPIN 0122 2nd 1600m Ellerslie

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Tapanui Cup-The Good Shepherd selected

Tapanui Cup-The Good Shepherd selected

The Good Shepherd is in the right kind of form to take out the Tapanui Cup on Sunday. He has finished placed at his last two races. He will carry 60kg on Sunday which is a bit of an ask. Chokito will be the hardest for The Good Shepherd to beat. She finished second to My World at Cromwell and that was a strong race. Go Lottie is a smart mare on her day and has won twice at Gore. She finished well back at Invercargill 16/12 but can bounce back from that. Backing the top four in the handicap in quinellas may be the way to go here because there is not much below them.

Tapanui Gold Cup on Sunday 1335m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2022 ZAC BLACK 1500 Unplaced R75 Cromwell

2021 IT’S SO EASY 5500X

2020 MIDNIGHT RUNNER 8903 3rd OHCP Cromwell

2019 KILOWATT 43X32 2nd R82 Invercargill

2018 ABOLI 8×331 1st R65 Cromwell

2017 HE AINT HEAVY 5×111 1st R80 Invercargill

2016 THOUGHT THAT 6761 1st R65 Invercargill

2015 PRINCESS BROOK 1×817 7th R75 Winton

2014 WILD BILL 2425 5th R85 Invercargill

2013 OOR WILLIE 38×11 1st Winton November

2012 PAZEJAN 8542 2nd R75 Riccarton

2011 PEYOW PEYOW 7468 8th OHCP Invercargill

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