The Buffer upset chance in the Easter Cup

Ponty, winner of the 1938 Easter Cup. Paperspast-Manawato Standard

The Buffer value runner in the Easter Cup

THE BUFFER provides punters with value in Saturday’s Easter Cup at Riccarton. He won very easily at Timaru last time, and even though that was only a weak field he won by three lengths and has a 3kg claimer aboard. That win by The Buffer was his first show of form for a while but he usually stays in form once he wins. TIMES TICKING won the race last year and will be aiming to do so again. He gets 3kg off taking him to 59kg, while HARLECH has struck a nice patch of form and is capable of going one better but he has won three races from 38 starts and that is a turnoff for me.

Easter Cup at Riccarton 1600m (listed)

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE AGE Wt

2023 TIMES TICKING 8^th Awapuni Gold Cup 7 60kg

2022    IRISH GIRL                       1st F&M G3 Riccarton             5           56kg

 2021 WHALE SONG 2nd Hororata Cup Ricc 5 53kg

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 WHO DARES WINS 4th listed Timaru Cup 6 53kg

2018 LA FILLE EN JEU 1st Breeders Stks Ricc 6 53kg

2017 TOMMY TUCKER 2nd White Robe Lodge S 8 60kg

2016 TOMMY TUCKER unpl Ohcp Riverton 7 57.5kg

2015 SIR SINGO 4th Ohcp Wingatui 5 53kg

2014 KISSES 1st R75 Pukekohe 4 53kg

2013 DOZINTMATERAW 5th Ohcp Ashburton 6 55kg

2012 I’M YOUR VENUS 4th Breeders Stks Ricc 4 53kg

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The Radiant One picked at Riccarton

Photo by Aliaksei Semirski on Pexels.com

The Radiant One picked at Riccarton

THE RADIANT ONE is selected to turn the tables on THE HOTTIE in the Easter Cup at Riccarton after The Hottie beat The Radiant One last week. The Radiant One is 2.5kg better off at the weights this time but that is not the only factor of note. The Radiant One won at the Course and distance in late January having raced at Gore just 7 days earlier. Backing up does not seem to worry her because she raced twice at the New Zealand Cup meeting finishing third and fourth. HASTOBEYOU is an outsider to consider on the minimum. She has won two of her last three races.

Easter Cup at Riccarton 1600m (listed)

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE AGE Wt

2023 TIMES TICKING 8^th Awapuni Gold Cup 7 60kg

2022    IRISH GIRL                       1st F&M G3 Riccarton             5           56kg

 2021 WHALE SONG 2nd Hororata Cup Ricc 5 53kg

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 WHO DARES WINS 4th Timaru Cup 6 53kg

2018 LA FILLE EN JEU 1st Breeders Stks Ricc 6 53kg

2017 TOMMY TUCKER 2nd White Robe Lodge S 8 60kg

2016 TOMMY TUCKER unpl Ohcp Riverton 7 57.5kg

2015 SIR SINGO 4th Ohcp Wingatui 5 53kg

2014 KISSES 1st R75 Pukekohe 4 53kg

2013 DOZINTMATERAW 5th Ohcp Ashburton 6 55kg

2012 I’M YOUR VENUS 4th Breeders Stks Ricc 4 53kg

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Capo Del Impero picked for the Canterbury Gold Cup

Photo: Cuddle, winner of the 1937 Canterbury Gold Cup

Capo Del Impero picked for the Canterbury Gold Cup

CAPO DEL IMPERO is good enough to add the Canterbury Gold Cup to the Cromwell and Waikouaiti Cups which he has won earlier this season. After his impressive Waikouaiti Cup winner under 60kg he finished 5^th in the Dunedin Gold Cup after conceding weight all round. His next start was in the Riverton Cup where he carried 61kg in heavy going. An impossible task and you just have to wonder why an apprentice claimer was not engaged. Capo Del Empero ran second in this race last year. I tipped him in last year’s race and he can go one better. It is also worth noting that the stable has won this race with Inferno, Tommy Tucker, and Sand Sweeper in the past. HES A DOOZY and MATSCOT are the big dangers. He’s A Doozy ran second in the Awapuni Gold Cup last time but 2000m is not his favoured distance while Matscot won the Southern Alps Challenge last year and you just have to wonder how much that race has taken out of him. Still he is a 6 time winner at Riccarton and not to be taken lightly.

Canterbury Gold Cup WFA 2000m (G3)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 Times Ticking 5181 Won Easter Cup

2022 Prise De Fer 6516 Sixth Awapuni Gold Cup

2021 Beauden 1141 1st Awapuni Gold Cup

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Who Dares Wins 724X1 1st Easter Cup Riccarton

2018 Saint Emilion 5018 8th Awapuni Gold Cup

2017 Tommy Tucker 2121 1st Easter Cup Riccarton

2016 Authentic Paddy 3495 5th Awapuni Gold Cup

2015 Scapolo 1262 2nd Easter Cup Riccarton

2014 Nashville 8153 3rd Awapuni Gold Cup

2013 Shuka 4621 1st Te Aroha Cup

2012 Inferno 7356 4th Awapuni Gold Cup

2011 Inferno 1233 3rd F&M G3 Riccarton

Notable stats:

5 of the last 10 winners last raced in the Awapuni Gold Cup

3 winners finished first or second in the Easter Cup.

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Sense of Timing picked to win Warstep Stakes

Photo: Warstep, winner of the 1915 Canterbury Gold Cup

Sense of Timing picked in Warstep Stakes

SENSE OF TIMING always seems to be running on over the shorter distances that she offers real value in the Warstep Stakes, a three year old fillies race over 2000m. Few of these have ever raced over 2000m and further so punters will be taking most of these on trust. EPEEL BEEL, NO RAIN EVER, and RACE ACE are strong chances. Epeel Beel was a good winner last Saturday; this will be her first go at 2000m. No Rain Ever was bogged down by the heavy going lastweek and will improve with the better ground. Race Ace raced in the G1 NZ Oaks last time. That is good form.

Warstep Stakes 3YOF Riccarton (Listed) 2000m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 SHES A CON 3621 Won Riverton Maiden

2022 BURGIE 9525 Fifth NZB Airfreight Stakes

2021 ATISHU 3111 1st 3YO listed Riccarton

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Beyond the Fort 112 2nd New Zealand Oaks

2018 Court Zarindi 3313 3rd 3YO listed Riccarton

2017 Nikita 8104 4th 3YO listed Riccarton

2016 All in Vogue 3998 8th 3YO listed Riccarton

2015 No Tricks 4442 2nd 3YO listed Riccarton

2014 Madam Victoria 1411 1st 3YO listed Riccarton

2013 If I Can I Can 4403 3rd 3YO LIsted Riccarton

2012 Asavant 7172 2nd 3YO listed Riccarton

2011 Fast Love 1642 2nd R70 Te Te Teko

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Nepheti hard to beat at Riccarton

Nepoheti has the form line to take out the NZB Airfreight Stakes at Riccarton providing that the track is good on Saturday, otherwise it may pay to look elsewhere. Nepheti has won three of her six races, all on good tracks with the most recent being at Ellerslie 30/03. Tis is a race which last race winners have a good record in. It’s Doris, Kindling Spark, and Nikaia are last race winners with a show of winning. Kindling Spirit may be the best of the trio because she has won at the course and distance. She is also going for her third win on end.

NZB Airfreight Stakes at Riccarton 3YOF listed 1600m

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE R

2023 MISS LAYLA 1st Ashburton maiden 63

2022    REPUTABELLE               1st 3YO listed Wingatui            71

2021 ATISHU 1st 3YO Riccarton 76

2020 No contest due to coronovirus lockdown

2019 SECRET ALLURE Unplaced Lowland Stakes 79

2018 RESPIN 1st maiden Ashburton 63

2017 SHOWMEUP 1st R65 Invercargill 70

2016 NO PUSHOVER 1st maiden Matamata 63

2015 CONSENSUS unpl NZ Oaks (Group 1) 67

2014 MADAM VICTORIA 1st 3YO listed race Wingatui 75

2013 KISSES 1st Rotorua Maiden 63

2012 ORTEM FIRE 2nd 3YO listed race Wingatui 73

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Riccarton Betting Systems for Saturday

Riccarton Betting Systems for Saturday

Here are a couple of systems to use at Riccarton on Saturday.

System A

Back the most recent course and distance winner

System B

Note horses that finished in the first three at both of its last two starts. If the noted horses have won or finished in a place at the course and distance it becomes a bet.

The Pitman trained team had a good record at the Riccarton Autumn meeting and they were in good form at the Riverton Easter meeting. Pitman won the maiden at two of the last three years.

The Trentham meeting, held last Saturday will be a good guide to Riccarton. Anything that is racing from that meeting is worth a bet.

For long shots, look for Southland trained horses.

Another system that turns up longer priced winners is last race winners from the recent Ashburton meeting.

There is a wet weather forecast so we are looking at a heavy track on Saturday. The form from the Riverton Easter meeting will turn out to be a good guide. The going was heavy at the Riverton meeting.

Here is a system to watch for other meetings.

Note horses that finished in the first three in at least five of its last six starts and finished in the first three last time out.

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Dazzling Miss picked at Riccarton

Dazzling Miss the one to beat in Mares Feature at Riccarton

Dazzling Miss has to be the one  to be in the South Island Breeders STakes at Riccarton on Saturday. She is the clear top rated runner in the race, a race which has favoured the higher rated runners in the past. Dazzling Miss ran second to Perfect Scemario in the White Robe Lodge Stakes last time. Ears Back, Lady Telena, and Elegant Lady are all good chances. The winner is likely to come from any one of these four horses.

Valachi Downs South Island Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes at Riccarton 1600m G3

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WIINNER RATING NO, AGE

2023 LIVE DRAMA 96 1 6

Last race-2nd White Robe Lodge Stakes (G3)

2022     IRISH GIRL                                  90                      1           5

Last race-3rd OHCP Ellerslie

2021 BELLE FASCINO 95 1 7

Last race-1st OHCP Riccarton

2020 OUT OF THE PARK                     74                     10          5

Last race-1st R82 Wingatui

2019 RESIDENTIAL 89 3 5

Last race-1st OHCP at Wingatui

2018 LA FILLE EN JEU 88 2 6

Last race-4th Cuddles Stakes at Trentham

2017 COULEE 99 1 5

Last race-4th Ohcp at Wingatui 4th March

2016 COULEE 86 6 4

Last race-1st F&M race at Riverton

2015 INCLUDE 94 5 4

Last race-1st Ohcp at Ashburton in March

2014 EMERALD QUEEN 91 5 4

Last start-1st Ohcp at Ashburton in March

2013 THE SOLITAIRE 102 2 5

Last race-2nd at Wingatui in March

2012 PAPILIO 75 14 4

Last race-2nd R75 Matamata

The trend for this race are;

9 of the past 11 winners were aged 4 or 5

9 of the past 11 winners were rated 86 and above

Lowest rated winner was Out of the Park on 74

Elizabeth Rose is the trend horse because she is 5 years old and is rated on 88. THe only other runner rated about 85 is Live Drama and she is a 6 year old mare.

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Riccarton on Thursday

Riccarton on Thursday

Form from Saturday’s race meeting at Wingatui is the most valuable form for Thursday’s meeting at Riccarton; therefore we turn our attention to this meeting first for Riccarton clues.

Just four horses are backing up Saturday; they are;

Race 1-Magneto

Race 3-Fifita

Race 6-Patsys Lass

Race 9-Unleashed

Magneto is the best chance of this four. He finished a narrow second to Motiontime and I think that he can go one better.

Fifita drops in grade but carries more weight. He won in this grade at the same course and distance three starts back and carried 58.5kg so the 59kg shouldn’t be a problem.

Patsys Lass is an eight year old mare with 58kg and I could not back her while Unleashed is an outside chance in race 9 but there are many chances in that race.

Looking at other possible chances, here are two to back:

Race 6-Aristocrat

Race 9-Rubicon Reigns

These two won at the course and distance at the 23rd February meeting. They are both promising horses.

For longer odds:

Race 3-Golden Harvest

Race 4-Jewel of Patch

Race 7-Trikstar

Race 8-Lombardi

Jewel of Patch will be at very long odds but will be racing against horses that may be a run short as they prepare for other races.

Race 9 is a very open race but I like Bugatti as a very good each way chance. He finished second at the course and distance last time out. He finished on strongly to be within 2 lengths of the winner and carries the same weight and has the same jockey (Terry Moseley) and is in the same class.

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Beaten Favourite angle is worth noting at Riccarton

Beaten Favourite angle is worth noting at Riccarton

There are a number of last race beaten favourites racing at Riccarton on Saturday. Here are the ones I have noted:

Race 1-Kindling Spark

Held up for a run at Wingatui last time and ran 4th of 14. Good enough to bounce back.

Race 3-Superbly Written

A non runner in the Gore Guineas last week. Has raced against some classy fields and is good enough to win here.

Race 5-Tavanasia

This is a poor field so Tavanasia who was a beaten favourite in heavy going at Kumara gets his chance to atone.

Race 7-Nortibutnice

A consistent type; well-backed when 4th in heavy going at Wingatui on Boxing Day. Gets her chance here.

Race 8-Watch out and The Radiant One

Both of these mares have a show. Watch out has finished in the first three at 11 of her 13 starts. The Radiant One is on a 7-day backup.

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Dazzling Miss is form

Dazzling Miss in that winning zone

(Timaru Stakes at Riccarton)

Dazzling Miss is in terrific form having won three of her last four starts. She won the listed Timaru Cup last time out dead heating with Jon Ol Rocco who is a very smart horse. Dazzling Miss has won 6 of her 12 races so has potential. The last time beaten favourites Watch Out and The Radiant One has to be given another chance. Watch Out was the odds-on favourite when finishing third to Perfect Scenario at Wingatui last time. She has finished out of the first three just twice in thirteen races so she has a fair chance of finishing in the first three again. She has not won at Riccarton in five attempts but has finished second or third in four of those races. The Radiant One was the $2.20 beaten favourite at Gore last week and you have to consider her on that. All About Magic is a previous winner who was a beaten favourite at Gore at her previous race. The Te Akau runners Milliefiore and Kai have to be considered if it is wet but not so on a firm track. Both are nicely weighted in this.

Timaru Stakes at Riccarton listed 1400m 

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 Phelan The Power 3946 6th Kumara Gold Nuggets

2022     Monza Circuito 0349 9^th OHCP Wingatui

2021 All About Magic 4207 7th Gore

2020 Windsor 36X11 1st R82 Waikouaiti

2019 He Kin Fly 234L Lost rider Kurow Cup

2018 Boots “N” All 5322 2nd Timaru Cup

2017 Maybe Miami 1024 4th Manawatu Challenge Stakes (WFA)

2016 Madam Victoria 4834 4th Timaru Cup

2015 El Chico 8842 2nd Kumara Gold Nuggets

2014 El Chico 3614 4th Anniversary Hcp (Trentham)

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