Sapphire Seas picked in the Middleton Stakes at York

Sapphire Seas picked in the Middleton Stakes at York

SAPPHIRE SEAS is my pick to win the MIddleton Stakes at York on Thursday. The Appleby trained mare has clearly the best form line of the race and has shown that she is capable of winning this. She is also unbeaten at York. William Buick rides her. 4/1 seems very generous odds for her when you consider that the first two favourites Free Wind and Bluestocking do not have any wins in their exposed form line.

Middleton Fillies Stakes at York (G2) 1m2f

Thursday

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Free Wind 6/5f 2111x Won G2 Haydock

2022 Lilac Road 15/2 912X5 Fifth G2 Newmarket

2021 Queen Power 6/4f 343X2 Second G2 Newmarket

2020 No race

2019 Lah Di Dah 1/3f 1123X Third G1 Ascot

2018 Coronet 2/1f 4253X Third G1 Ascot

2017 Blond Me Information unavailable

2016 Beautiful Romance 5/1 6253X Third G1 Ascot

2015 Secret Gester Information unavailable

2014 Ambivalent 9/2 1923X Third Meydan Mey

2013 Dalkala 2/1f 315X4 Fourth G2 Longchamp

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#york #middleparkstakes

Friendly Soul favourite for the Muscadora Stakes

Friendly Soul favourite for the Muscadora Stakes 

It is hard to go past the favourite FRIENDLY SOUL for Wednesday’s Muscadora Stakes at York. This filly is unbeaten with her most recent win coming at Newmarket 10 days ago in listed company at just her second race start. It takes a good horse to win a black type race at their second start. The biggest danger will be SEA JUST IN TIME. This filly won on debut at Newmarket and there is no knowing just how good this one will turn out to be. This is the risk of labelling Friendly Soul as a nap bet.

Musidora Stakes at York (UK) 3YO 1m2f 100 yards (G3)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023    Soul Sister                   11/4     1×0     Unplaced G3 Newbury

2022 Emily Upjohn 4/7f 11 Won C4 Nov Sandown

2021 Snowfall 14/1 4598X 8^th G1 2YO Newmarket

2020 No race

2019 Nausha 14/1 1X4 4^th C2 3YO Kempton

2018 Give and Take 7/2 221X2 2^nd C4 3YO Nov Sandown

2017 Shutter Speed 4/7f 1X1 Won C3 3YO Newbury

2016 So Mi Dar 4/5f 1X1 Won C2 3YO Epsom

2015 Star of Seville 4/6f 31X1 Won C3 3YO

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

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#york #yorkuk

Dante Stakes at York (G2) 3YO 1m2f

Thursday

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2022 Desert Crown 7/2j 1X Won maiden Nottingham

2021 Hurricane Lane 5/1 1X1 Won C3 Newbury

2020 Thunderous 13/2 111X2 Second listed Newmarket

2019 Telecaster 7/1 21 Won C5 Windsor

2018 Roaring Lion 3/1f 12X35 Fifth 2000 Guineas

2017 Permian 10/1 3X321 Won listed Newmarket

2016 Wings of Desire 9/1 31 Won maiden Wolverhampton

2015 Golden Horn 4/1 1X1 Won listed Newmarket

2014 The Great Gadsby 9/1 27X20 Unpl 2000 Guineas

2013 Liberterian 33/1 14 Fourth G3 Sandown

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

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#dantestakes #york #ukracing

Hamish Favourite for the Ormonde Stakes

Hamish Favourite for the Ormonde Stakes 

Hamish will be going for his third win in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester on Wednesday (UK time). He is unbeaten at Chester because those are his only appearances there. Hamish has been the favourite at six of his last seven races and the second favourite at the other one. His career record is seventeen starts for ten wins, four seconds, and one third. He has won his last five races on end with the most recent win being at G3 level at Newbury on his season’s reappearance.

Ormonde Stakes at Chester (G3) 1m5f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS LAST RACE

2023 Hamish 10/11 Second G3 Newbury

2022 Hamish 9/2 7^th listed race Kempton

2021 Japan 13/8F 9th G1 Ascot (October)

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Morando 3/1 1st G3 Newbury

2018 Idaho 8/11F 8th G1 Meydan

2017 Western Hymn 7/2 1st listed race Kempton

2016 Dartmouth evsF 1st G3 CFD

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

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Chester Vase attracts an open field

Chester Vase attracts an open field

As is always the case, the Chester Vase has attracted an unexposed bunch of youngsters, but despite it being a nightmare for form students the favourite has a good record in the race with all of the last 11 winners being at 8/1 or less and 5 of them were the favourite.

This leads us to take a look at the favourite for this year’s running. It is Grosvenor Square who is currently at evens. This horse has not raced since last October when winning a Group 3 event at Leopardstown. His career record is 131x It has been noted that each of his three races to date were on rain affected going. He has never raced on good going. On the plus side is this: He won in heavy going over 1m1f at his third start. It requires stamina to win in heavy going and I have no doubt that he will get the 1m4f distance.

Hidden Law is a horse who has to be considered. He is from the in-form Charlie Appleby. He has a 21 form line. At least 5 of the last 11 winners of this race were last race maiden winners.  Hidden Law is around 3/1 as is Cadogan Place from the Andrew Balding Yard. This horse is unbeaten after winning on debut. US Army Ranger (2016) and Ruler of the World (2013) were two previous winners of this race who were coming off a debut win. Both were at odds-on.

Chester Vase 3YO (Gp3) 1m 4f 

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Arrest 10/11f 3112X Second G1 Saint Cloud (Fr)

2022 Changingoftheguard 100/30 4521 Won Dundalk maiden

2021 Youth Spirit 7/1 4134 4th Listed race Newmarket

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2018 Young Rascal 100/30 21 1st Maiden Newbury

2017 Venice Beach 5/2F 231 1st Maiden Tipperary

2016 US Army Ranger 4/11F 1 1st Curragh

2015 Hans Holbein 7/4F 421 1st Maiden Leopardstown

2013 Ruler of the World 10/11F 1 1st Maiden Curragh

2012 Mickdaam 8/1 2142X 2nd C2 Newmarket

2011 Treasure Beach 7/2 1123X 3rd Ascot 2YO

2010 Ted Spread 8/1 713X 3rd C2 2YO Newmarket

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#chestervase #chester #ukhorseracing #britishhorseracing 

Galileo Dream picked to win the Cheshire Oaks

Galileo Dream picked to win the Cheshire Oaks

(Wednesday UK time)

GALILEO DREAM is my pick to win the Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday at Chester. This filly was an easy winner in heavy going at Leopardstown last time out. In similar conditions she will be hard to beat. RUBIES ARE RED finished second to Galileo Dream at Leopardstown and may be better suited by going which is not so heavy. In that case she is worth putting into your selections as a saver. BUTTONS is the best backed of Aidan O’Brien’s horses. This filly won on debut as a two year old in her only start in 2023. She resumed with a third and is an early improver. I expect any improving in the going will be in her favour. A big clue as to which is O’Brien’s chances is the choice of rider. Ryan Moore usually has the pick of O’Brien’s horses but can get it wrong sometimes. As for Buttons; she steps up from 7f and that is a concern but it should be noted that her only defeat came at Gp3 in heavy going and her only win was on good going.

Cheshire Oaks 3YOF 1m3f 75yds (listed)

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Savethelastdance 10/11 5X1 Won Maiden Leopardstown

2022 Thoughts of June 7/1 252 Second Leopardstown maiden

2021 Dubai Fountain 13/8F 2424 4th G1 2YO Newmarket

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Medaayih 3/1F 6211 1st Chelmsford

2018 Magic Wand 3/1F 73 3rd Maiden Leopardstown

2017 Enable 2/1 13 3rd Newbury

2016 Somehow 8/15F 31 1st Leopardstown

2015 Diamonds and Rubies 5/4F 613 3rd Navan

2014 Anipa 16/1 2411 1st Windsor

2013 Banoffeel 9/1 1 1st Maiden Newbury

2012 Good Morning 50/1 1325 5th Beverley

2011 Wonder of Wonders 6/5F 271 1st Tipperary

2010 Gertrude Belle 5/2 3321 1st Maiden Newbury

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Konasana picked in the Hawkesbury Guineas

Konasana picked in the Hawkesbury Guineas 

KONASANA has the form to take out the Hawkesbury Guineas on Saturday. She won very impressively at Randwick 20/4 when taking out the James Carr Stakes. That being her second run this campaign, so she can be expected to improve on that. KHUMBILA is one for bigger odds. She finished a half-a-length second at Kembla Grange 20/4 and had 58kg to carry. Other one to watch is the Canberra Guineas winner PANIC who won that race at his sixth start so has a bit of class.

Hawkesbury Guineas 1400m 3YO (G3)

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 Hawaii Five Oh

2022 Mr Mozart 7811 Won Doncaster Prelude

2021 Exoboom 2112 2nd Hawkesbury

2019 Military Zone X41X5 5th BM84 Gosforth

2018 Sambro 26X28 8th Carbine Classic

2016 Spill The Beans 3X148 8th Arrowhead Stakes Randwick

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

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Here to Shock picked for the Hawkesbury Cup

HERE TO SHOCK is selected to win the Hawkesbury Cup despite having not run since 6/4. HE won at Caulfield that day and with this being his third run this campaign he has some improvement in him. The Chris Waller pair of BOLD MAC and WELWAL will be tough to beat. Bold Mac has drawn very wide so has a lot to do while Welwal will be ridden by James McDonald. Chris Waller has a prolific record in country cups around Australia.

Hawkesbury Gold Cup 1600m (G3)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM WEIGHT LAST RACE

2023 New Mandate

2022 Kirwan’s Lane 911X5 55 5^th BM100 Randwick

2021 Archidamus 21X59 58.5kg 9th BM100 Randwick

2019 Archedemus 1119 53kg 9th Provincial Champs Randwick

2018 Kingsguard 5375 53kg 5th Doncaster Prelude

2016 Amovatio 0X635 56.5kg 5th Doncaster Prelude

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City of Troy 4/6f for the English 2000 Guineas

(Saturday UK time)

CITY OF TROY is the odds-on favourite for Saturday’s English 2000 Guineas. He has won all of his three races to date and they have been very dominant wins. That includes a G1 race at Newmarket. The favourite has not won the 2000 Guineas since Churchill won the race in 2017. That is a 6 run losing streak. Prior to this six run losing streak of favourites, the race was won by 5 out of 7 favourites so judging by that, the favourite in this race is long overdue.

#2000guineas #newmarketguineas #newmarket #horseracing 

English 2000 Guineas at Newmarket G1 (UK)

PAST WINNER

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Chaldean 7/2 111Xu Unseated rider Newbury (G3)

2022    Corebus                          5/1     121X Won G1 Newmarket

2021 Poetic Flare 16/1 101X1 Won listed Leopardstown

2020 Kameko 10/1 1221X 1st G1 2YO Newcastle

2019 Magna Grecia 11/2 121X 1st G1 2YO Doncaster

2018 Saxon Warrior 3/1 111X 1st G1 2YO Doncaster

2017 Churchill 6/4f 1111X 1st G1 2YO Newmarket

2016 Galileo Gold 14/1 1113X 3rd G1 2YO Longchamp

2015 Gleneagles 4/1F 1113X 3rd G1 2YO Longchamp

2014 Night of Thunder 40/1 111X2 2nd G3 3YO Newbury

2013 Dawn Approach 11/8F 1111X 1st G1 Newmarket

2012 Camelot 15/8F 11X 1st G1 Doncaster

2011 Frankel 1/2F 111X1 1st G3 Newbury

Notes:

7 of the last 10 winners had at least 4 previous runs. 

3 of the last 10 Guineas winners had two or three starts. All three had won the Group 1 at Doncaster last time out.

8 of the last 10 winners last raced at Group 1 level

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Galopin des Champs odds on for the Punchestown Cup

Galopin des Champs odds on for the Punchestown Cup

(Irish jumps racing, Wednesday)

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS will start a long odds-on favourite for Wednesday’s Punchestown Cup in Ireland. He has been beaten just three times in twelve chases. He was the odds on favourite in those three races that he was beaten in and FASTOR SLOW won two of those races including this racer last year when Galopin des Champs was the 4/11 favourite. FAASTOR SLOW unseated the rider in the CHeltenham Gold Cup last time out but can bounce back from that. So he is an each way bet if you are going to oppose the favourite.

Punchestown Gold Cup 3 miles 120 yards

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023    Fastor Slow                    20/1    2552     2nd Cheltenham

2022 Allaho 6/5f 2111 Won Cheltenham

2021 Clan des Obeau 100/302321 Won G1 Chase Aintree

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Kemboy 13/8F 11U1 1st Aintree

2018 Bellshill 4/1 141P PU Cheltenham Gold Cup

2017 Sizing John 9/10F 1117X 7th Leopardstown

2016 Carlingford Lough 12/1 4614 4th Cheltenham Gold Cup

2015 Don Cossack 5/2 1131 1st Aintree

2014 Boston Bob 5/2 1661 1st Aintree

2013 Sir Des Champs 2/1F 2412 2nd Cheltenham Gold Cup

2012 China Rock 20/1 4584 4th G1 Punchestown

2011 Follow the Plan 20/1 15F3 3rd Aintree

2010 Planet of Sound 14/1 12F0 Unplaced Cheltenham

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

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#punchestown #punchestowngoldcup #irishchase

BALLYBURN favourite at Punchestown

BALLYBURN has raced over hurdles four times for a second (on hurdle debut) and three wins. In all of his races he has been the odds-on favourite each time he has raced over hurdles and at 5/4 he looks quite good value even allowing for the strength of the field he is up against. SLADE STEEL is the main danger. I tipped this horse out when he won at Cheltenham last time out. That was a very hot field with a heap of last race winners in the race so he is a real chance of taking this out. FIREFOX is the only horse ever to have beaten Ballyburn and he is in this race but has never quite lived up to his earlier promise. 

#punchestown #ballyburn #sladesteeel

Punchestown (Ire) Champion Novice Hurdle 

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Facile Vega 4/6f 1152 2^nd G1 Cheltenham

2022 Mighty Potter 20/1 131P Pulled up G1 Cheltenham

2021 Echoes in Heaven 8/13f 1411 1^st G2 Fairyhouse

2020 No race

2019 Klassical Dream 8/13f P111 1^st G1 Cheltenham

2018 Draconi 25/1 12U2 2^nd G2 Fairyhouse

2017 Class Emery 8/1 1125 5^th G1 Cheltenham

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Jonbon picked for the Celebration Chase

Jonbon picked for the Celebration Chase 

JONBON is strongly fancied to win the Celebration Chase at Sandown. He has raced ten times as a chaser and has been the odds-on favourite in nine of those races so if you can get a price of above even money on him you are doing well. Jonbon has won eight of his chasing starts and finished second in the other two. He won this race last year so it is hard to back anything else other than Jonbon. EL FABIOLO has a similar record to Jonbon. He has won six of his seven chases and pulled up in the other. That was at Cheltenham when he was the 2/9 favourite. El Fabiolo has been the odds-on favourite in six of his seven starts and will be this time as well. It will be an interesting clash between these two smart horses.

#celebrationchase #sandownuk #bettingtips

Celebration Chase at Sandown (UK) 1m7f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Jonbon 8/13f 1121 1^st G1 Aintree

2022 Greanteen 11/8f 4125 5^th G1 Leopardstown

2021 Greanteen 13/2 1234 4^th G1 Cheltenham

2020 No race

2019 Altior 1/6f 1111 1^st G1 Cheltenham

2018 Altior 2/11f 1111 1^st G1 Cheltenham

2017 Altior 30/100f 1111 1^st G1 Cheltenham

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