New Plymouth today

New Plymouth today

TRACK HEAVY 10

There are some nice chances at New Plymouth today and now that I have taken a closer look at them have come up with some extra ones I have tossed in.

Race 3-WAIZUKU

Beaten favourite at Awapuni 7th July, he is in the form of his life and will relish the ground.

Race 4-KOTAHI

On the way up. This is only his 4th start and has gained a 1st & 2nd. Last raced 7th July azt Awapuni so is fit.

Race 7-SOUND THE SIREN

Another horse that raced at Awapuni. Won that day and no reason why he cannot do likewise today.

Race 8-DEEJAY MAC

Consistent galloper with13232 in his last five sgarts. 2nd in a strong race at Te Rapa 7th July. BEAU JEU, a horse I have already backed in this is also a chance.

In the Opunaki Cup, Temple Tiger is scratched but I have still Taurus and Ringo running but I would be inclined to toss in SHELLEZ ACE. She does not qualify under the open Handicap ratings but ticks virtually every other box, in unbeaten on the course, relishes heavy going and is on the way up.

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SECRET POWER FOR ODDS AT OAMARU TOMORROW

Te Rapa 21 July 2013

FOXBRIDGE PLATE FEATURING JOHN LETTS 18/08/18 1200m

FORM  HORSE                                     RATING            WEIGHT           SYSTEM RATING          LAST RACE

2127x  CLOSEUP                                 104                  58.5                 45.5                             22 October (Hastings)

4523    SALAMANCA                           88                    54.5                 33.5                             14 July (Trentham)

6194    GALAXY MISS                          87                    54                    33                                9 June (Te Rapa)

6264    FIRE JET                                   83                    54                    29                                14 July (Ruakaka)

228×5  RESURRECT                             76                    54                    22                                30 June (Ruakaka)

60×45 AZ GIVEN                                  72                    51                    21                                11 July (Avondale)

SALAMANCA is clearly the form pick here with FIRE JET second but….Close Up though he does not qualify as a selection did finish second in a trial 17th July at Te Rapa just a matter of four days ago and if the odds are okay, is worth a bet too.

Oamaru 22 July 2018

GLENMOA FARMS LTD WAITAKI RIVER TROPHY 1200m

FORM  HORSE                                     RATING            WEIGHT           SYSTEM RATING          LAST RACE

1015    SHAARA                                   93                    60                    33                                23 June (Riccarton)

4119    FAIRLIGHT                               91                    54                    38                                4 July (Ashburton)

4×724  SOMETHING’S BURNING         87                    57                    30                                13 July (Timaru)

3045    DYNAMIC                                85                    56                    29                                4 July (Ashburton)

1385    SECRET POWER                       85                    53                    32                                13 July (Timaru)

1781    WISE ACT                                84                    54                    30                                13 July (Timaru)

7543    BALLY BAY                               81                    52                    29                                13 July (Timaru)

3292    DRESSED TO KILL                     81                    51                    30                                13 July (Timaru)

2327    SABER                                      81                    54                    27                                4 July (Ashburton)

1215    EPIC DREAMER                       68                    54                    24                                4 July (Ashburton)

SECRET POWER is the system bet here with SOMETHING’S BURNING, WISE ACT, and DRESSED TO KILL all highly rated at 30.       SHAARA and FAIRLIGHT are both eliminated due to the fourteen day rule.

 

Horses for courses system

Horses for courses system worth following

A horses for courses system worth following is the back those horses that won on the same course and distance last time out provided that their last race was not more than fourteeen days ago and that they do not carry more weight than their last race. Here are the ones that qualify in Australia today.

Race 3-OMBUDSMAN (Randwick)

Decise winner 7th July on the course and distance but is odds-on as I understand it therefore have not backed him.

Race 6-SEAHAMPTON (Randwick)

Impressive last start winner, she has a very fast turn of foort and this being just her 5th start is still improving.

Race 7-NOBLE JOEY (Randwick)

Won at 1000 7th July with 57kg and has 53kg this time. He steps up 100m to 1100m and I have decided to be a bit lenient with the distance rule since it is just 100m different. He is around $9

Another horse I like in Australia is ORDER OF COMMAND in race 6 at Flemington. He finished strongly for a 1.5 length second to rising star Nature Strip on the course and distance 7th July.

NEW ZEALAND

Race 6-PASABLANCE (Te Rapa)

Narrowly won her last race but has the same weight. The only qualifier in NZ today.

A longshot I like is PROFIGAL SON in race 7 at Te Rapa. He will be having his 3rd run with the last two weeks and has improved in those two races. I backed him at long odds at Avondale 11th July and he ran okay. He is at $20FF for this race.

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Opunaki Cup Tomorrow

New Plymouth 21 July 2018

POWERWORK OPUNAKI CUP OPN HCP $65,000 1400m

FORM  HORSE                         RATING            WEIGHT           SYSTEM RATING          LAST RACE

2×051  NASHVILLE                  97                    60                    37                                24 June (Riccarton)

x4232  TAURUS                       95                    59                    36                                7 June (Awapuni)

2113    TOMELLIA                   97                    58                    39                                24 June (Tauranga)

35×11  NEW YORK MINUTE    96                    57.5                 37.5                             24 June (Tauranga)

2443    RINGO                         92                    57.5                 33.5                             7 June  (Awapuni)

3222    DEALS IN HEELS          92                    55.5                 35.5                             24 June (Tauranga)

7×157  WILLIAM WALLACE     88                    55.5                 31.5                             24 June (Riccarton)

6×124  ART DECO                   89                    54                    34                                24 June (Tauranga)

1×601  SLEEPING BEAUTY       87                    53                    34                                24 June (Tauranga)

9322    TEMPLE TIGER            78                    53                    25                                7 July (Te Rapa)

833×1  SHELLEZ ACE               75                    53                    22

Here there are only three horses that qualify for the rating system after the fourteen-day rule has been applied. The three horses are TAURUS, RINGO, and TEMPLE TIGER. I am inclined to back all three. Temple Tiger I feel has a good pull in the weights for a male horse and I can see him leading from start to finish in this one. Taurus seems to enter this race every year and runs his usual honest race. I certainly would rule him out winning this as he is going great guns at the moment. Ringo would be more of a chance on a slow track rather than a heavy one and if he got those conditions, he will be tough to roll.

 

 

Hackwood Stakes Newbury (UK)

Bet 365 Hackwood Stakes (Newbury UK)

The Bet 365 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury is on Saturday and using the formula of 3 points for every Group 1 start, 2 points for every Group 2 start and 1 point for every Group 3 start, here is the ratings for the most favored horses in the betting.

HORSE                         LAST FOUR STARTS                             POINTS

EQUILATED                 G1, class 5, class 3, class 5                  3

PROJECTION               G1, listed, class 3, G3                          4

EMBLAZONED             G1, G2, class 5, class 5                        5

INVINCIBLE ARMY       G1, G2, G3, G2                        8

BACCHUS                    class 2, class 2, class 2, class 2            0

YAFTA                          G3, class 2, class 2, class 2                  1

Invincible Army is clearly the selection here. with 8 points. In an open race he is around the 4/1 mark in the betting.

A horse that may be worth backing on the Friday at Newbury is KOEMAC. He drops to a class 3 race from class 2 where his formline in races lower than class 2 is considerably better.

OAMARU (Sunday)

Southland trained horses worth following at Oamaru on Sunday

Southland trained horses are worth following at Southland on Sunday. They are;

Race 1-BOYSWAY, SIR ED, SOUTHERN COOL, FRANCONI, MINUE, and BLUES BREAKER

Race 2-SHANTAV and TILLY DUNNAGE

Race 3-DRUMSPIRIT

Race 4-SHAARA, WISE ACT, and EPIC DREAMER

Race 5-RINGBOLT

Race 6-TO SIR WITH LOVE, MIDNIGHT KAOS, and RED MAJOR

Race 7-GOLD NGURU, BORN A ROYAL, GALWAY GARRY, , PROMISING, LORD BEAVER, and OPIO ROSE

Race 8-THE GORDONIAN, SHAKTI, LOCHAN NORA, TIMY TYLER, STOKER’S ROCK, and FINBARR

Race 9-FLICKA OF GOLD, CIVIC RECEPTION, FREE AND EASY, and THE KRAKEN

It is not wise to back all of these because of their numbers and quite a number of these horses are better off against minor mid week company. Drumspirit on debut is worth backing I think. She will be at good odds. FINBARR will be going for four wins in a row in race 8 in his first open handicap start.. GOLD N GURU, another last race winner may be wort a bet in race 7 as Southland last race winners have a good record.

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New Plymouth tomorrow

Lisa Allpress worth following at New Plymouth

Lisa Allpress is a rider worth following tomorrow as the majority of her rides are last race winners. Reminds me of a HORSE RACING BETTING SYSTEM from the 50s about following riders at the meeting who ride the most last race winners. Her rides are as follows;

Race 1-ROBUSTO

Race 2-WONDER LASS

Race 3-STROLLING VAGABOND

Race 4-SMILING PROUD

Race 5-NEW YORK MINUTE

Race 7-TRIPLE COMMAND

Triple command will probably be her best mount. She won on debut and can make it two from two.

The Baker/Forsman team and rider Jonathan Riddell has a couple of horses going. They are in Race 3 with RODRICO and in race 8 with BEAU JEN.

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KIRLAND LOOKS GREAT VALUE TODAY

Trainer/jockey combination may be key to Hastings today

Backing an inform trainer/jockey combination is a Betting system that is follwed by some punters particularly in the UK and that could prove to be the right formula for success at today’s Hastings meeting. The lethal combination of Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman had the trainer’s premiership wrapped up months ago and with just a couple of weeks remaining in the season will want to add to their tally. Jockey, Jonathan Riddell has had a lot of success riding the Baker/Forsman runners and the combination looks worth backing at Hastings. There are only two horses that really qualify for this system if you want to call it that and they are;

Race 1-MEXICAN TYCOON

Race 8-NOT USUAL PRINCE

I think it is sometimes well worth having a crack at some of the debutantes especially if they are to be ridden by a decent jockey.

Looking at the other races, one horse that I think will be worth backing is THREE AULD CRUIZIER in race 6. The Stephen Marsh trainer 3-year-old has started three times, all on heavy tracks with his most recent run being 6th July at Te Aroha. He will find the not so heavy going in his favour.

Fraser Auret tends to have his horses ready to go first up and could have one in the last in RED CLOUD. He has had two trials for a win and a placing so will be fit.

Kirkland is a class galloper and is still a maiden. He really should win race 5. He finished second on debut in the WAnganui Guineas last September and he should really kick off his campaign with a win. He is headed for better things.

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SANDOWN & WARWICK FARM TODAY

Sandown (Australia) today

I have sorted out some horses for Sandown today but it will depend on the price as to whether I back them or not. They are;

Race 5-MILFORD

Raced at on the course last time out for a 9th but is worth another chance  but in the same race is GRAYWORM. He has raced twice for a debut win then a good 3rd against strong comapany at Flemington and back in this grade will be tough. I would be inclined to back both.

Race 6-BIG HAMMER

Can defy a weight-rise in this as he is dropping considerably in class. If rthe odds are right will be worth backing.

Race 8-BENNY GOES BERSERK

Darren Weir trained gelding will be having his second run after a layoff. He finished 4th first-up and many a horse I can recall hasfinished 4th first-up before winning second up. Will be ridden by Brad Rawhiller.

At Warwick Farm, there are theree horses I fancy and they are;

Race 2.-SKYRAY

Two seconds and a fourth in his last three starts makes him haerd to beat in this.

Race 4-ISLAND MISSILE

Finished 6th in strong Saturday company last time out and can win this despite topweight of 60kg

Race 7-HAMMOND LANE

Two close seconds in his last two races makes him hard to beat uin this.

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BEST BETS LAST WEEKEND

Best bets or nap selections

I have noticed the number of best bets that have beebn winning lately so decided to do a bit of research to see if one can make some money off them.

DATE   HORSE                                     MEETING         RESULT            DIV

13/7     UBETIAN                                  Timaru            lost                  —–

13/7     ROYAL MISTRESS                    Timaru            won                 $3.60

13/7     ASH                                          Alex Park         lost                  ——-

13/7     SOMETHINGABOUT MARY     Alex Park         won                 $3.30

13/7     CASH N FLOW                         Addington        won                 $1.20

13/7     THE COMMANDO                   Addington        lost                  ——-

14/7     ROSEWOOD                            Trentham        3rd                   ——

14/7     VINEVALE                                Ruakaka          won                 $2.10

14/7     MAJOR TOM                           Ruakaka          won                 $2.70

14/7     MANTASTIC                             Caulfield          2nd                  ——-

14/7     LIFE ON THE WIRE                   Caulfield          3rd                   ——-

14/7     ALASSIO                                   Rosehill           lost                  ——-

12 horses here selected as best bets with 5 of them winning with 90 cents prifit for every dollar per selection. I think you can improve your strike rate by not betting on horses that are odds-on and getting bookies odds when betting early. I had Vinnevale, Rosewood, and Major Tom among my selections on Saturday. I never bet on Vinnevale or Rosewood because their odds were too short and I got bookies odds on Major Tom on Friday, I think about $3.40 which was more than the tote price.

A review on the Melbourne Cup