Eva Jensine is at $31 in the Jackleberry Classic. I think those are great odds as she has never been out of the money on a decent track. She is on a 7-day back-up and will like the extra distance of today’s race. $31ff is great odds for her.
Its champions day at Ascot tonight. (NZ time) and I like Stradivarius in the first at Ascot.. Her is up against Order of St George who he beat easily at Goodwood in August and has since finished 3rd in the Group one St Leger behind Capri. Other good chances at Ascot are Betheel (2.40), Ribchester (3.15), and Poets Word (3.50)
Roc de Bank’s light weight may be telling factor at
Roc de Bank has 54 kilos to carry and a big pull in the weights over most of his rivals in race 5 at Te Rapa. He was narrowly beaten last time out and is second-up. Some horses do go to a new level on resuming after a spell. Roc de Bank has won 3 races at Te Rapa.One of those wins was when carrying a big weight as a 3-year-old. Many of the horses in Roc de Bank’s race will have more important assignments. Consensus, Stolen Dance, Pacorus, and Pepper Mill are all previous black type winners.
Other horses worth considering on Monday are;
Sarabande (race 3), Karisto (race 4), Elusive Treasure (race 6), and Bostonian (race 6)
The highlight of the day will be the Sarten Memorial (race 7) where Bostian is selected to turn the tables on Hard Merchandize. The pair finished first & second in the Hawkes Bay Guineas on the 7th October.
Daysee to turn tables on Dixie
Daysee Doom, second to Dixie Blossoms at Randwick two weeks ago is set the turn the tables on her when the two meet again in the ICD Nivisson (race 7) Randwick. Daysee Doom is very consistent having won 7 times and place 5 times from 15 race starts. She is a Grioup 2 winner this season, having won the Golden Pendant two starts back.
Other chances in Australia today are;
New Universe in race 9 at Randwick
At Caulfield, I like Grand Rosso (race 6), Snitty Kitty (race 7), Bonneval (race 8), and Shillelagh (race 9)
Shadow Fox strong chance at Hastings (Sunday)
Shadow Fox will be first-up when he starts in the Red Badge Spring Sprint (race 6) at Hastings on Sunday. 4 of his 6 wins have been first or second-up. Providing that the going is no worse than dead then he is in with a great chance. He is also unbeaten at Hastings. Another thing in his favour is the 1400m distance. 5 of his wins being at that distance. jonathan Parkes takes the mount.
Elswhere at Hastings, Royal Ruby (race 2), Quintessentially (race 3), Ginger Nuts (race 8), and Odisha (race 9)
Odisha holds a nomination for the Group 2 Couplands Mile at the NZ Cup meeting and this should be a further step towards it.
Ginger Nuts will be odds-on or close to it therefore it is a race I will bypass but Volk Stok’N’Barrel will give the favourite something to think about.
Ruby Row gem of a bet?
Locally trained mare Ruby Row has to be well worth backing first-up at Ashburton tomorrow. She has a great first-up record. In fact she has never run a bad race when first-up. Towards the end of her last campaign she struck a couple of heavy tracks which proved difficult for her. Last time she raced on her home track, she was a winner. That was at tomorrow’s distance of 1400m. Kate Cowan rides her tomorrow and claims 3 kilos which brings her weight to 54.5 kilos.
Admiral Rous (race 8) must surely be worth backing. He is second-up and having won 3 races first or second up must be a chance at good odds. Terry Moseley, his regular rider takes the mount.
Flag The Groom is my selection for the Ashburton Cup (race 9) The locally trained gelding will appreciate the better ground. He is a previous course and distance winner and will be improved by his two runs this season.
ST Andrews Masonic is in form and may be good enough to take advantage of a light weight tomorrow. Kate Cowan claims 3 kilos on him bringing his weight down to 51 kilos.
The Cossack’s class may tell at Rotorua tomorrow
The Cossack (race 2) raced against black type company last season and the progressive 4-year-old will find this company a lot easier. He would not want the going heavy however but it looks like it may not be worse than dead. Laddie of Oakville could be a multi maker. He will appreciate the better groyund after finishing down the track in heavy going at Te Awamutu last time out.
Other chances at Rotorua are;
Beyond Dispute (race 1), Hello M’Lady (race 5), Ocean Emporer (race 6), and Scapolo (race 7), and Sweep Stake (race 8).
Bonneval has the x factor to win the Caulfield Cup
Bonneval is my selection to win Saturday’s Caulfield Cup. She appears to have so many positives in her favour. She has a wonderful strike rate of 7 wins from 11 starts and is on a 7-day back. That is a powerful combination of factors in her favour. Then there is the Baker factor. Her trainer Murray Baker has won numerous GRoup ones in Australia but what is even more significant is that he has won black type races on both sides of the Tasman with horses who are on the 7-day backup. These include Mongolian Khan, Turn Me Loose, Sakhee’s Solder, and Jon Snow. The last named will be among her rivals in the Cup but would prefer to have the sting out of the track.
Ventura Storm is my second selection. His connections have cleverly plotted a Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup campaign for him by carefully choosing which lead-up races for him. I would expect him to excell one he gets to 2400 metres and further which will be the case on Saturday. Ventura Storm is a Group one winner in Europe and his formline at 2400 metres & further is 121. If any horse is capable of winning the CAulfield-Melbourne Cup’s double then it would be Ventura Storm but he has to beat Bonneval and that won’t be an easy task.
Johann’s Verneer is my third fancy. He finished a close second to Gailio Chop in last Saturday’s Caulfield Stakes. He is trained in Ireland by Aidan O’Brien who has won a string of Group one races in the Northern Hemisphere this year.
Shillelagh value runner at Caulfield on Saturday
Shillelagh has to be the value runner in race 9 at Caulfield on Saturday. The Chris Waller trained mare has won 6 times with 5 of her wins being first or second up. On Saturday she will be having her second start this prep. She kicked off her current campaign with a strong 7th at Randwick 7 October, finishing on from the rear. That run had “Second-up winner” written all over it. On Saturday she will be ridden by Joao Moreira which means she will probably start at shorter odds than if an Australian jockey was aboard but $9 or $10 will be reasonable odds about her. Its a strong field with Foxplay, Global Glamour, Silent Edition, and Zanbagh among her rivals. Foxplay finished second behind Winx two or three starts ago. She is a class mare but carries 58 and a half kilos which will be tough for her.
Scapolo selected at Rotorua on Saturday
Scapolo is selected to win the SWeynesse Stakes at Weight for age on Saturday. He won the race last year beating Underthemoonlight and finished second in the race two years ago behind Ryan Mark. Scapolo handles all going types but a wet track will aid his chances because most of his rivals will find a slow track inhibiting. His main rival will be Splurge who is resuming after a spell. He last raced in Australia during the early winter. The mares Untamed Diamond, Volks Lightning, and Honey Rider are all chances providing its not too wet.
Hello M’ Lady looks a good bet in the Jackleberry Classic. She was a dominant winner at New PLymouth last Saturday. The increase in distance should not be too much of an obstacle to her, being by stayer Shocking.