JUST A STING SELECTED FOR KEMPTON’S SATURDAY FEATURE

Just a Sting looks great chance for 888 Sport Chase at Kempton on Saturday

Just a Sting ticks a lot of boxes for the 888 Sport Handicap Chase at Kempton on Saturday that he looks the one to beat. He won on the course and distance last time out 27/12 and has a very good win-rate of three wins from seven starts in chases. I think what beats him will win.

Previous course and distance winners Adrien Du Point (6/1), Black Cotton (10/1), Double Shuffle (10/1), and Potter’s Legend (20/1) all look capable of putting in a big performance. Of these Black Cotton looks a good each way show because of his consistency.

888 Sport Handicap Chase at Kempton 22 February

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM ODDS LAST RACE

2019 WALT 6512 14/1 2nd G3 Ch Newbury

2018 MASTER DEE 2332 8/1 2nd C2 Hcp Ch Aintree

2017 PILGRIMS BAY 1F23 25/1 3rd C3 Hcp Ch Wincanton

2016 THEATRE GUIDE 0323 6/1 3rd C1 G2 Ch Cheltenham

2015 ROCKY CREEK 252P 8/1 PU C1 Hcp Ch Newbury

2014 BALLY LEGEND 2142 28/1 2nd NHF Kempton 

2013 OPENING BATSMAN 0121 12/1 1st C3 Nov Ch Wincanton

2012 NACARAT 4435 9/2 5th G1 Ch Kempton

2011 QUINZ 0113 8/1 3rd Cheltenham

2010 RAZOR ROYALE 1247 11/1 7th C2 Hcp Ch Sandown

2009 NACARAT FP21 10/1 1st C2 Hcp Ch Doncaster 

Adrian Du Point is the current favourite at 6/1 with Just A Sting at 7/1 second favourite. Just a Sting is the horse I really like as he does tick a lot of boxes in that he won last time out at the course and distance 27/12 and has a promising horse’s strike rate of three wins from seven starts. Also in the reckoning is Eric Le Rouge who also won at Kempton last time out (January) but is unproven at 3 miles so you would be taking him on trust if you are backing him. I note that he is three wins from three starts at Kempton. Dashing Point has won at 3 miles but that was a point to point at the start of his career. He has never raced at Kempton.

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FREE HORSE RACING BETTING SYSTEMS

Three year old system

Rules

  1. Three year olds only
  2. First, second, or third last time out
  3. Last raced within the previous fifteen days.

Randwick system

Rules

  1. Randwick meetings only
  2. Must have raced at Randwick last time out
  3. Rate each race, last race winners given preference followed by last race seconds, thirds, forths, fifths etc

Caulfield System

Rules

  1. Caulfield meetings only
  2. Must have raced at CAulfield last time out
  3. Rate each race; Last race winners given preference followed by last race seconds, thirds, forths, fifths etc

Harness system

Allocate points for every horse’s last four races; 3 points for every win, 2 points for every second, and 1 point for every third. Top points scorer in every race is the selection.

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CAULFIELD TRENDS (Saturday)

Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield Group 1 1200m 22 February 2019

YEAR WINNER FORM BARRIER LAST RACE

2019 LYRE 511 5 Blue Diamond Prelude

2018 WRITTEN BY 11 14 Blue Diamond Prelude

2017 CATCHY 111 12 Blue Diamond Prelude

2016 EXTREME CHOICE 11 11 Chairmans (Caulfield)

2015 PRIDE OF DUBAI 32 4 Blue Diamond Prelude

2014 EARTHQUAKE 1×1 15 Blue Diamond Prelude

2013 MIRACLES OF LIFE 11×1 1 Blue Diamond Prelude

2012 SAMAREADY 11 7 Blue Diamond Prelude

The Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield 22 February 1100m Hcp Group 1

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE WEIGHT BARRIER DIVani Stakes Flem

2019 BOOKER 2nd Begoni Stakes Flem Nov 53kg 14 $19.90

2018 RUSSIAN REVOLUTION Moir Stakes, Moonee V 29 Sep 56.5kg 10 $4.30

2017 SHEIDEL Winterbottom Stks, Ascot 26 Nov 53kg 3 $7.20

2016 FLAMBERGE Darley Classic, Flemington, 7 Nov 58kg 15 $30.80

2015 SHAMAL WIND W.J.Adams Stks, Sandown, 26 Jan 54kg 14 $10.60

2014 LANKAN RUPEE Rubiton Stks, Caulfield, 8 Feb 56kg 7 $3.90

2013 MRS ONAASSIS Mumm Stks, Flemington, 8 Nov 52.5kg 12 $15.50

2012 WOORIM Emerites Stakes, Flemington 5 Nov 55.5kg 8 $22.70

Futurity Stakes at Caulfield 22 February (Group 1) 1400m

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2019 ALIZEE 41×11 Express Stakes Rosehill 2 Feb

2018 BRAVE SMASH 23×53 C.F.Orr Stakes (10 February)

2017 BLACK HEART BART 29×21 C.F.Orr Stakes (11 February)

2016 TURN ME LOOSE 111×4 C.F.Orr Stakes (13 February)

2015 SUAVITO p311x Momentum Stakes (8 November)

2014 MOMENT OF CHANGE322x22 C.F.Orr Stakes (8 February)

2013 ALL TOO HARD 412×1 C.F.Orr Stakes (9 February)

2012 (KING) MUFHASA 121×2 Waikata Sprint (11 February)

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Peter Young Stakes at Caulfield (Group 2) WFA 1800m

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE

2019 AVILIUS 1st Clydon Cup Caul 9 Feb

2018 GAILIO CHOP 1st Clydon Cup Caul 10 Feb

2017 STRATUM STAR 1st MM Trophy Gold Coast 14 Jan

2016 BOW CREEK Unpl C.F.Orr Stakes Caulfield 11 Feb

2015 MOURINHO 3rd C.F.Orr Stakes Caulfield 14 Feb

2014 FIORENTE 1st Melbourne Cup 5 Nov

2013 FORETELLER 5th Clydon Cup Caulfield 9 Feb

2012 LUCAS CRANACH 3rd Melbourne Cup 1st Nov

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Caulfield Autumn Classic Group 2 for 3YOS Caulfield 22 February

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM

2019 GLOBAL EXCHANGE 1st BM58 Werribee 315×1

2018 VALIANT SPIRIT BM70 Moonee Valley 1162

2017 FARSON 1st BM70 Moonee Valley x1411

2016 TALLEY 1st BM70 Moonee Valley 15×11

2015 ALPINE EAGLE 1st 3YO Hcp Morphetville 3×11

2014 VILANOVA 7th 3YO BM74 Rand 3377

2013 SUPER COOL 3rd Autumn Stks Caulfield 212×3

2012 UPBEAT 4th BM 85 Warwick Farm 3614

Mannerism Stakes Group 3 (Mares) 1400m Caulfield 22 February

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE AGE WT FORM

2019 JAMAICAN RAIN 6th Caulfield September 6 58kg 1115x

2018 SILENT EDITION 5th Balmain Stks (Caul) 5 59kg 550×5

2017 SILENT EDITION 2nd Balmain Stks (Caul) 4 59kg 231×2

2016 AZKADELLIA 2nd Balmain Stks (Caul) 4 55kg 132×2

2015 TYCOON TARA 1st Balmain Stks (Caul) 4 58kg 2121

2014 BONARIA 3rd Balmain Stks (Caul) 5 58kg 204×3

2013 STAR OF GISELLE 8th Eclipse Stks (Sand) 5 58kg 1118x

2012 HI BELLE 4th Balmain Stks (Caul) 5 57.5kg 121×4

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Zeditave Stakes group 3 (3YOC&G) 1200m Caulfield 22 February

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM DIV

2019 TERRIUM 3YO Hcp Sandown 111 $7.00

2018 OVERSHARE Manifred Stks (Caulfield) 19×92 $3.50

2017 BENZ Sandown Guineas 1555x $3.90

2016 SANTA ANA LANE Gothic Stakes (Caulfield) 114x $9.20

2015 ROMMEL 3YO (Perth) 217×3 $7.80

2014 NOT LISTENINTOME Coolmore (Flemington) 1122x $1.60

2013 GRAND EMPORER BM78 (Moonee Valley) x1234 $15.90

2012 HOT SPIN Rubiton Stks (Caulfield) 29×23 $2.20

Armanasco Stakes Group 2 (3YOF) 1400m Caulfield 22 February

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM

2019 QAFILA 5th Victorian Oaks (Flem) 0425

2018 SUMMER SHAM BM70 3YOF (Moonee Valley) 11

2017 SAVANNA AMOUR Kev Hayes (Caulfield) 1773

2016 CATCH A FIRE MDN SW (Moonee V) 27×31

2015 SABATINI Kev Hayes (Caulfield) 357×1

2014 SPIRITS CHANCE Kev Hayes (Caulfield) 3×111

2013 MELIORA Kev Hayes (Caulfield) 5164

2012 SHOPAHOLIC The Vanity (Flemington) 43×11

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INVERCARGILL SELECTIONS

Wet track likely at Invercargill today

A wet track is likely at Invercargill today and my selections on based on this and of course those who are on a quick backup from Saturday’s racing there.

Race 1-HAZELNUT

First start since the Coast circuit. Won well at Greymouth 5th January then finished third to Torro Del Greco in the Miss Scenicland Stakes.

Race 2-LAST TRY

Sally McKay runner on debut in a poor maiden field

Race 3-BUCK SHELLFORD

Unplaced in the Southland Guineas on Saturday; the easier grade + wet track will help him.

Race 4-FLY WITHOUT WINGS

Second in the Summer Cup on Saturday. Likely to be at short odds for this. OUR BOY BAZZ each way may be an option.

Race 5-LAST LETTER

Another on a quick backup from Saturday and a wet track may see a form reversal.

Race 6-TOP GHIA

Unplaced in the Guineas. Has had a strange program, Extra distance may help. Won on a quick backup on the West Coast and will be attempting to repeat here.

Race 7-GOODTGHINGSTAKETIME

Another Paul Harris trained horse. Wet track may be what she needs

Race 8-GARMENT

Wet tracker, will be aided by a wetter track. Another on a quick backup from Saturday. Won on a similar backup on the Coast circuit.

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FIT HORSES + LIGHT WEIGHT

Fit horses with a light weight a winning combination

On Saturday Polzeath won the Avondale Cup at $32 on the tote but I got on him at $61, nice. 

A fit horse with a light weight is hard to beat and we saw that on Saturday when Polzeath carried 52kg when beating Platinum Invador who carried 59kg. IO thought Platinum Invador was the best horse in the race but with 59kg to carry I left him for another day. I backed Platinum Invador when he won two starts back in the City of Auckland Cup. It will be interesting to see what weight he is allocated in the Auckland Cup. 

I did state in one of my blogs in December “Platinum Invador is an ideal type for the Auckland Cup.”

If he is carrying 59kg again then I would be looking elsewhere.

Polzeath was not the only longshot on a quick backup I have backed this year; Garnet was another when she won at Greymouth at $26. She too was carrying 52kg and I pointed that out to a fellow punter on the course that day and he told my brother I talked him into backing it as did my brother.

A few years back we went to the Hokitika meeting which was a complete bog and many of the winners had two common factors; they were on a quick backup and ridden by a 3kg claiming apprentice.

Larry Vogele, an American handicapper of the 1960s & 70s said, “Class is the end result of a number of factors such as conditioning, weight, distance, going, and whether the trainer is really trying to win.” 

As experienced punters know, the class horse of the field is often beaten by an inferior horse who is fitter. 

It all boils down to doing your research and arriving at your own conclusion but the biggest clue to a horse’s chances can often be at his last run.

I should have taken the treble at Ellerslie which paid $600+ because I had the last winner picked out and that paid $8+

One angle for the harness or rather the square gaiters I have been keeping an eye on for months is to back last race winners because straight out trotters tend to stay in form when they strike form. Rock N’ Pop was one such horse who qualified. He won his third in a row at Oamaru paying $8.

At Invercargill there are several horses who would benefit from a slower track and in that category are Fine Bouquet, Sanctify, Finbarr, and Garment. Of these I think Sanctify is an excellent War Step Stakes prospect. That race is being run at Riccarton in April.

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ROLL THE GOLD POVERTY BAY SELECTION

Poverty Bay races (Gisborne) Sunday

Roll the Gold Poverty Bay Cup selection

ROLL THE GOLD looks well placed at the weights for tomoerrow’s Poverty Bay Cup. He has only 53.5kg to carry which is a big pull in the weights from several of his rivals. He last raced at Awapuni 7th February where he was beaten favourite. He carried 59kg that day and will appreciate the big drop in weight. Compare Roll the Gold’s weight with his rivals. MORE WONDER 61.5kg, SHADOW KING 59kg, SATU LAGI 59kg, and PASABLANCE 57kg.

The three horses below Roll the Gold do not have much to recommend them and I will ignore them. It is a good race to watch as far as future prospect for Wairoa on Thursday.

Race 1-NOWANAGEN

Race 2-KATIEM MARIE

Race 3-MOTLEY CRUE

Race 4-MANNIES POWER

Race 5-VICTORY GLORY

Race 6-UNLACED

Race 7-ROLL THE GOLD

Race 8-ROCKING ALONG

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EAGLE FARM SELECTIONS

Eagle Farm today

Race 1-ROTHFIRE

danger UNCLE FRANK

Race 2-TORRENS

danger ART ATTACK

Race 3-JARDIN RIDGE

danger LETS CHEER AGAIN

Race 4-BETTER REFLECTION

danger GO DEEP

Race 5-I’M PASSE

Race 6-ALDERMAN

Race 7-ALDERMAN

danger SLOW HANDS

Race 7-SIESTA KEY

danger INGEAR

Race 8-ERIC THE EEL

danger HERITAGE DASH

Race 9-THE TAX ACCOUNTANT 

danger MAGNIFIER

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OAMARU & WINTON HARNESS

Harness selections

OAMARU (Today)

Race 1-GOTTA TICKET

Race 2-LITTLE RAIN

Race 3-UNO MIA

Race 4-GEOFF’S LEGACY

Race 5-RUSTY I AM

Race 6-OLIVER NORTH

Race 7-LILAC CHARM

Race 8-DA MOON’S MISSION

Race 9-WOLFENSTEIN

Race 10-REBEL KIBBYBONES

Race 11-HIGHLAND REIGN

Race 12-LOSSSONYA

WINTON (Sunday)

Race 1-SLANTE

Race 2-RAKSJAMESON

Race 3-MELTON MAFIA

Race 4-THE INTERCEPTION

Race 5-SHERWOOD MAGGIE

Race 6-YANKEE PARTYKIWITRIX

Race 7-REVITALISE

Race 8-LITE PERCUSSION

Race 9-THE WHITE RABBIT

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