YORK SELECTIONS FOR SATURDAY

Horses to note at York

BANGKOK is my selection in the Strensall Stakes; he has won at Group 3 this season and this race is a drop back from Group 2s where he has been running at.

LAND OF OZ looks hard to beat at York on Saturday; he has won 4 of his 8 races and has a weight he is well capable of winning with. FIRST IN LINE in the same race will be hard and I suggest backing both here.

LAURENS must surely be hard to beat in her race as she is a multiple group 1 winner; in fact 6 of her 8 wins have come at Group one with the most recent at Deaville in France. 

WITHOLD & KINGS ADVICE are the two fortm runners in the Ebor Hcp and backing both is the way to go here.

RECON MISSION at 12/1 is at a nice price as he won at York in June and certainly has the credentials to do so again.

Other meetings

GOODWOOD

1.30-STRAWBERRY SOMEONE

2.05-BEART LE BON

2.40-ALPINISTER

4.25-CHANCE

NEWMARKET

2.45-NUBOUGH

3.55-LAND OF LEGENDS

WINDSOR

4.40-SADLERS BEACH

5.15-GOLDEN DRAGON

5.50-TIN HAT

REDCAR

5.30-ABBEY WHARF

6.00-NIRODHA

6.30-FUNNY MAN

7.00-LORD OF THE ROCK

7.30-POET’S PRIDE

CHELMSFORD

2.35-POINT OF ORDER

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BATAASH selected to beat TEN SOVEREIGNS in the Nunthorpe

Bataash selected to win the Nunthorpe Stakes

Classy sprinter Bataash is selected to beat the favourite TEN SOVEREIGNS in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York on Saturday. He is among the top sprinters in the UK and certainly has the formline with 2 wins and a 2nd from as many starts this season. I think Ten Sovereigns, though he is a group 1 performer like Bataash is better off at a slightly longer distances and at odds of around 6/4 is well-worth opposing. Bataash is the second favourite at 9/4.

STRADIVARIUS is at a ridiculous price for the Lonsdale Stakes; he has a Winx/Enable like formline and it would be the sensible thing to pass this one up. DEE BEE EX is the second favourite at 4/1. He is entered for the Melbourne Cup, I believe.

MANDARIN has been in great form and will look to continue that in the 1.55 but CARADOC is a danger and my suggestion is 2 points to win on Mandarin and 1 point on Caradoc.

SPIRIT WARNING has never finished further back than 4th since being gelded, and that was on the all weather a while back; he looks to continue his consistent form in the 4.50. NABAAR will take a lot of beating though and it will be between these two.

There are some good betting opportunities elsewhere; in 5 or 6 horse handicaps, you can often bypass, the first two or three favourites depending on the circumstances. If the odds on a horse with a poor win to starts ratio are quite short then you can look further afield for better opportunities. The 3rd or 4th favourite may be a better option. I did notice two 5 horse fields at Goodwood so I will take a look and see who is paying what in those races.

YORK

1.55-MANDARIN danger CARADOC

2.25-STRADIVARIUS 

3.00-SPARTAN FIGHTER

3.35-BATTAASH

4.15-AFRICAN SWIFT

4.50-SPIRIT WARNING 

NEWMARKET

2.00-THREAD OF SILVER

5.30-CONCIERGE

GOODWOOD

5.00-LETHA ANGEL

5.35-VOLKAN STAR

6.05-COTAI AGAIN

6.35-SHAW STEALER

7.05-WHISTLER BOWL danger FAYETTA

SALSBURY

5.15-AMOR FATI

5.50-HAMISH McBETH

6.20-INCINERATOR

6.50-GOVERNOR OF PUNJAB

CHELMSFORD

5.45-CHAMPAGNE ESPANOVA

6.15-AJARI

7.15-SECRET ART

7.45-STAR OF SOUTHWARD

8.15-WANAASH

FFOS LAS

2.15-WE’RE UNITED

2.50-THE GREY TRAIN

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HAPPY CLAPPER WINX STAKES SELECTION

Happy Clapper selected to win Winx Stakes M11 race 7

The retirement of Winx will assist Happy Clapper get his nose in front this season though being a 9-year-old, father time is not on his side, but there are several good reasons for liking him with the main one being that most of his rivals are better suited to the longer distances and are being aimed at the cups races or the Cox Plate. Happy Clapper has a good first up record having won first up after a layoff four times, and he has won three times at 1400m. Another plus in his favour is, he will be ridden buy Hugh Bowman, Winx’s regular rider, but of more significance is, Chris Wallers has horses engaged and Hugh usually rides for Chris so why is he riding for another trainer?

Looking at the other horses, AVILIUS, is a good chance, but only if the track is slow or heavy; the reason is, he has never won at 1400m, and if it was a good track then he is likely to be outpaced.

INVINCIBLE GEM, is likely to be thereabouts, she finished 2nd first up in the MIssile Stakes, and finished 4 lengths ahead of the 3rd horse. She has started 6 times 2nd up for 3 places which indicates that she takes a start or two to recover from her first up run.

VERRY ELEGANT has an impressive formline, and the distance will not be a worry, but like many of the others, is being sert for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

1 1511X AVILIUS

2 2284X HAPPY CLAPPER

3 496X3 LE ROMAIN

4 1X5PX BEST OF DAYS

5 236PX KINGS WILL DREAM

6 1915X SAMADOUBT

7 810X2 INVINCIBLE GEM

8 3403X UNFORGOTTEN

9 X059X YOUNGSTAR

10 2111X VERRY ELEGANT

Winx Stakes (formerly Warwick Stakes) Randwick 24th August

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE

2018 WINX 1st Queen Elizabeth Stakes 1111x

2017 WINX 1st Queen Elizabeth Stakes 1111x

2016 WINX 1st Doncaster Handicap 1111x

2015 ROYAL DESCENT 3rd Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Randwick 7433x

2014 TIGER TEES 1st Aure’s Star, Flemington 437×1

2013 VEYRON 5th OHCP Ruakaka 228×5

2012 PINWHEEL 1st Missile Stakes Warwick Farm 284×1

2011 PINWHEEL 3rd Missile Stakes, Randwick 3313

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RAISAFUASHO SELECTED FOR ELLERSLIE FEATURE

Raisafuasho selected to win the Pakuranga Hunt Cup

The Ann Browne owned Raisafuasho is selected to make it three steeplechase wins from as many starts over the big fences. The 10-year-old has been around a long time but has certainly found a new lease of life this season. He is trained by the Rogerson team. I like OLD COUNTESS as one to throw in at longer odds. PERRY MASON won this race last year but the race was run at Te Rapa last year and Ellerslie is a more testing track. Still, you cannot rule out a Paul Nelson jumper especially at Ellerslie at the time of the year. Perry Mason started on the flat at WAnganui last Sunday. Interesting to note that he has raced 10 over the big fences for 4 win and 4 places, which is an 80% 1,2, 3 record. He is a genuine horse.

The hurdles race is wide open with many chances. ZENTANGLE, BAY ROCKER, and NO TIP are three of the leading chances in this. Zentangle is a Kevin MYers trained runner who last time out. I think a Myers runner in the month of August has to be respected. I don’t know how many times Paul Nelson has won this race, but I do know of two of his horses who have done so, King’s Deep in 2013 and Just Not Cricket in 2006; he trains NO TIP, a hurdler with so much potential that he could turn out to be one of our best hurdlers for the year or so.

Of the other races, I like PIERIAN SPRING in the amateur rider’s race (race 3); she will be ridden by Bailey Rogerson. Pierian Spring is on a 7-day backup having raced at Te Rapa last Saturday where he finished 3rd. The wetter ground at Ellerslie will suit him better but I wouldn’t want odds of less than $5 considering his record.

Pakuranga Hunt Cup 4900m at Ellerslie

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2018 PERRY MASON F121 1st OPN Steeplechase Te Aroha

2017 AMANOOD LAD 2×341 1st OPN Steeplechase Hastings

2016 KICKBACK 5180 unpl Flat race Woodville

2015 JACK ROMANOV 4152 2nd OPN Steeplechase Te Aroha

2014 TOBOUGGIE KNIGHTS P8P7 7th OPN Steeplechase Te Aroha

2013 SNODROPTWINKLETOES 4316 6th OPN Steeplechase Riccarton

2012 AMANOOD LAD 7L32 2nd OPN Steeplechase Te Aroha

2011 IMA HEROINE 6326 6th OPN Steeplechase Paeroa

2010 HYPNOTIZE 2×080 unpl flat Awapuni

Pakuranga Hunt Hurdle 3350m at Ellerslie

PAST WINNERS

2018 LETMEBY 7450 unpl flat at Pukekohe

2017 MONARCH CHIMES 2511 1st hurdles race at Rotorua

2016 NANCHO LASS 3325 5th hurdle at Rotorua

2015 JUST GOT HOME 4576 6th Grand National Hurdles

2014 JUST GOT HOME 5315 5th flat at Ruakaka

2013 KINGS DEEP 2611 1st 0-1win hurdle Riccarton

2012 SOUTHERN COUNTESS 7438 8th flat race Te Rapa

2011 SOUTHERN COUNTESS 5502 2nd flat race at Matamata

2010 SOUTHERN COUNTESS 3390 unpl hurdle at Paeroa

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FRANKELLINA SELECTED AT YORK

Frankellina’s turn to shine at York

FRANKELLINA has finally found a race which I think she is capable of winning. She has been racing against quality Group one races and has not gone that bad just finishing out of the places. At her last race, she was beaten favourite at York, July 26th. That was a listed race which is basically the same type of contest she races here. None of those who opposed her that day are in again, so this is her big chance.

Looking at the other races, WHAT’S THE STORY looks a real value runner in the 3pm since he won on the course and distance in May, and against the same class.

LIBERTY RED is selected in the 1.55 but my approach is to bet 2 points on LIbert Beach and 1 point onUnder The Stars.

YORK

1.55-LIBERTY RED danger UNDER THE STARS

2.25-MUM’S TIPPLE danger Love Destiny

3.00-WHATS THE STORY

3.35-ENABLE

4.15-FRANKELLINA

4.50-MUBTA SINMAH

LEICESTER

5.30-WYCLIF

6.00-SHAMMICH

6.30-PINNATA

7.00-HARMONIZE

CHEPSTOW

4.20-VALENTINO SUNRISE

4.30-NORAB

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ALVYN’S DREAM SELECTED FOR INTERPROVINCIAL AT NEW PLYMOUTH

Alvin’s Dream nicely weighted for New Plymouth feature

ALVIN’S DREAM seems to tick all of the right boxes in the interprrovincial race at New Plymouth; the Taranaki race has been won by a horse that finished 1st or 2nd in 8 of the last 9 years. A fit inform horse with a low weight is going to be competitive, and with Alvin’s Dream, he is in the form of his life. 54.5kg is the lowest weight he will have for a while; the weights he has carried in his last four starts are; 59kg (1st), 56kg (4th), 67kg (1st), and 66kg (2nd).

IRISH FLAME, trained on the course by John Wheeler would have been the main chance but for his 59kg. He did carry 61kg when winning in heavy going at the Auckland Cup meeting but has a task here. He finished 4th at Te Rapa last Saturday so will be fit for this. SCAGLIONI could be an upset chance because he like Alvin’s Dream is an inform horse with a light weight, however he carried 54kg when winning last time and he has a poor strike rate. Viktor Vegas finished 2nd at Te Rapa 3rd August but I have ruled him out because, he is better at 1200m or 1400m.

At other races at New Plymouth, the Kevin Myers trained INTERLLECTUS has to be a chance in race 2, because Myers trained last race winnes tend to do well in the month of August, particularly at this New Plymouth meeting and he is the only one that qualifies.

Interprovincial race at New Plymouth 1600m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM

2018 MAUNA KEA 1512 2nd Waverley

2017 MANGAROA FLO JO 0198 8th Rotorua Cup

2016 PACORUS 1811 1st Te Rapa July

2015 SPOKE TO CARLO 1221 1st Otaki

2014 THE BOUNCER 1612 1st Riccarton

2013 ONE ABOVE 1571 1st Te Rapa

2012 KALGOORLIE BOMBER 6361 1st Riccarton

2011 OUR FOREIGN MINISTER 1422 2nd Te Rapa

2010 BEAU DANE 3631 1st Hawera

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WATCH FOR IMPROVING 3-YEAR-OLDS

Improving three-year-olds worth following in the UK

At this time of the year the fasted improving thoroughbreds are those three years olds in winning form especially if they are up against well-exposed types whose limitations have been made evident. THere are several opportunities on Wednesday’s cards to find such horses. GREELEY (2.50 Bath) and FOURWHEELDRIVE (3.45 Carlisle) are two such horses bidding for their hattrick; both are running against older horses. ROAD TO PARIS has been in consistent form and was beaten favourite when second last time out, she can go one better this time while BEECHWOOD JUDE is another going for a hattrick and is a previous course and distance winner.

Looking at the other races, I like PAROLE 3rd time after a spell as a long shot. He finished 5th in a strong field last time and is on a 5-day backup. He starts in the 4.55 at Carlisle.

Fields at York look quite open but it is hard to go past DAKOTA GOLD in the first after his impressive win at Ripon on Saturday. He is in that zone and I don’t think we have heard the last of him this season. I will be bidding for my second win in this race having backed El Astronaute to win at 12/1 in the same race last year.

UK horse racing selections August 20th

YORK

1.55-DAKOTA GOLD

2.25-PERSUASION

3.00-LOGICIAN

3.35-CRYSTAL OCEAN

4.15-CARNWENNAN

4.50-TROUBADOR

BATH

1.45-TAWAAFAQ

2.15-SANDDIEGO

2.50-GREELEY

3.25-SECRETARIAT

4.05-ROAD TO PARIS

4.40-RED GUNNER

5.15-KING CRIMSON

CARLISLE

2.05-LEAPERS WEED

2.35-AINSDALE

3.10-BEDTIME BELTS

3.45-FOURWHEELDRIVE

4.25-BEECHWOOD JUDE

4.55-PAROLE

WORCESTER

5.00-BLACK SANTHEM

6.00-CLUBSWIN

6.30-WEST COAST FLYER

8.00-SKIN FLINT

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CANTERBURY AND SANDOWN SELECTIONS (Australia)

Australian horse racing August 20th

CANTERBURY (Australia)

Race 1-PETRONUS

Race 2-ART COLLECTION

Race 3-FLYING PIERRO

Race 4-MISS EINSTEIN

Race 5-CAMP RIFLE

Race 6-GENERAL SOHO

Race 7-SEAL THE DEAL

SANDOWN (Australia)

Race 1-EDINBURGH

Race 2-ROCK THE PLAN

Race 3-ANNABAR

Race 4-DIAMOND BOW

Race 5-SENSITIVITY

Race 6-TUBBS GIFT

Race 7-MUZZLEFLASH

Race 8-TOFANE

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MELODY BELLE STEP CLOSER TO HASTINGS

Melody Belle will be ready for the Tarzino Classic

MELODY BELLE will be improved by her first up 4th ibn the Foxbridge Plate last Saturday. She is a genuine group 1 mare who will have a better WFA record than whatever comes up against her. It will be a case of, “It will take something special or bad luck to see her beaten,” that is assuming TE AKAU SHARK does not take the field. Te Akau Shark’s who ran a huge race  for 2nd in the Foxbridge Plate is expected to race next in Australia but has been left in the field for the Hasting’s race.

ENDLESS DRAMA won the Foxbridge Plate fair and square and since this was his first win at 1200m, it was a fair effort, the 1400m at Hastings will suit him better. The only other horse who raced in the Foxbridge Plate that may be a chance at Hastings is HELENA BABY but only if it were a heavy track there, and the going at Hastings seldom gets heavy.

Looking at the other races from Te Rapa, ANNOFPAISLEY ran a huge race for 3rd to TELLYAWHAT; she got a long way back and flew home for 3rd. Maybe if she struck a heavy track at Ellerslie, it would be her go but both of her runs have been at Te Rapa, so the right-handed way around may be an issue.

COPPER MINE finished 5th in the 8th at Te Rapa but he has not even gained a place in slow or heavy ground so is likely to improve once the tracks firm up. 

Another horse who would appreciate better going is SAMOON, who was first up in the 1200m for R65 horses. Her only win came on a good track while she has never finished in the money in slow/heavy going, or at 1200m. She is one to note for next time out for she won 2nd up at 1400m in her last campaign at Pakenham, in Australia where she campaigned last season. One for Hastings at the end of the month, maybe?

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