Ethereal Star has a form line full of Black Types

ETHEREAL STAR (race 1 Pukekohe) has a form line which is full of black type races. Her is her career record:

Start 1-2nd Dubut 2YO Te Rapa

Start 2-1st listed 2YO Counties

Start 3-5th Gp2 Pukekohe

Start 4-4th listed MM Pukekohe

Start 5-4th G1 Sistema Stakes 2YO

Start 5-6th G2 Percy Sykes Stakes 2YO Randwick

Start 6-8th Moonee Valley 3YO

Start 7-5th Aussie

Start 8-2nd Pukekohe R75 26/12

Start 9-2nd 3YO Ellerslie 

Start 10-4th listed MM Ellerslie

Start 11-5th G3 Ellerslie

Just looking at this Ethereal Star’s record away from the Group & listed races is much better. She has won in heavy going but is probably better in good going. Three of her four seconds were on good going. Solidify, who is in the same race has a similar form line. Solidify prefers the sting out of the track though. The other horse in the race with a show is Billy Lincoln who is going for a hattrick but this is a slight rise in class for him. Even so, you can’t knock winning form.

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Ethereal Star has a form line full of Black Types

ETHEREAL STAR (race 1 Pukekohe) has a form line which is full of black type races. Her is her career record:

Start 1-2nd Dubut 2YO Te Rapa

Start 2-1st listed 2YO Counties

Start 3-5th Gp2 Pukekohe

Start 4-4th listed MM Pukekohe

Start 5-4th G1 Sistema Stakes 2YO

Start 5-6th G2 Percy Sykes Stakes 2YO Randwick

Start 6-8th Moonee Valley 3YO

Start 7-5th Aussie

Start 8-2nd Pukekohe R75 26/12

Start 9-2nd 3YO Ellerslie 

Start 10-4th listed MM Ellerslie

Start 11-5th G3 Ellerslie

Just looking at this Ethereal Star’s record away from the Group & listed races is much better. She has won in heavy going but is probably better in good going. Three of her four seconds were on good going. Solidify, who is in the same race has a similar form line. Solidify prefers the sting out of the track though. The other horse in the race with a show is Billy Lincoln who is going for a hattrick but this is a slight rise in class for him. Even so, you can’t knock winning form.

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Dennis trained horses worth following at Invercargill

Dennis trained horses worth following at Invercargill

(Sunday)

Robert Dennis is on fire with his team and is worth following at Sunday’s meeting at Invercargill. Here are the horses he has entered.

Race 1-Hastobeyou

Raced at G3 level last time. Drops in grade and distance. Handles all goijng.

Race 2-The Princie One

First run as a 3YO. Raced in listed grade last time where he ran 4th. Expected to be odds-on or close to it.

Race 3-Medina and Helly Belly

Medina is making her South Island debut. Has a 3kg claim. Needs soft/heavy going.

Helly Belly has only won on the all weather but has been placed in heavy ground. (go figure). Big run at Riverton last Saturday on South debut.

Race 5-Sacred Dream

Narrowly beaten at Riccarton last time. Hard to roll here.

Race 6-Missoni

Second at Riverton last time makes her the leading chance. Will be at short odds.

Race 8-The Royal Diva

Only win was in heavy going on the course and will be hard to beat with rain.

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Learning to Fly picked in the P J Bell Stakes at Randwick

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Learning to Fly picked in the P J Bell Stakes at Randwick

Miraval Rose worth noting

LEARNING TO FLY finished fourth in the G1 Surround Stakes at Randwick 2/3 and that form should be good enough to win the P J Bell Stakes at Randwick on Saturday. at her second to last trace she ran second to Kimochi in the Light Fingers Stakes. MIRAVAL ROSE has never finished out of the first two and is expected to be ready for a good first up run. Her last two runs have been at Caulfield. KRISTILLI has a similar form line to learning to Fly in that she raced in the Surround Stakes and the Light Finger Stakes at her last two starts. She is unbeaten in heavy going which is a key factor if the forecast rains arrive.

P J Bell Stakes at Randwick (G3) 1200m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Arts $32.20 Unplaced Kembla Grange Classic

2022 Heresy $4.80 04×54 4th Surround Stakes

2021 Match Maker $11.20 30×27 7th Rosehill

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Militarize picked for the Doncaster

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Militarize picked for the Doncaster

MILITARIZE is in form for the Doncaster Handicap at Randwick on Saturday. He has run two G1 placings at his last two starts. He has the class to take this out. Zac Purdon takes the ride. The Japanese galloper OBAMBURUMAI is going to be tough. He won the Golden Rose at Rosehill 4 November but has not raced since. He has obviously been set up for this. The Everest winner, THINK ABOUT IT is better than his recent form suggests. He ran fifth in the George Ryder Stakes last time out. 1 mile will not bother him.

Doncaster Handicap at Randwick (G1) 1600m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER AGE FORM LAST RACE

2023

2022

2021 CASCADIAN 6 5134 George Ryder Stakes

2020 NETTOYA 5 90X14 George Ryder Stakes

2019 BRUTAL 3 1×363 George Ryder Stakes

2018 HAPPY CLAPPER 7 62×12 George Ryder Stakes

2017 ITS SOMEWHAT 6 313×1 Ajax Stakes Rosehill

2016 WINX 4 1×111 George Ryder Stakes

2015 KERMADEC 3 4343 George Ryder Stakes

2014 SACRED FALLS 4 35×44 George Ryder Stakes

2013 SACRED FALLS 3 1×552 Rosehill Guineas

2012 MORE JOYOUS 5 17×11 Queen Elizabeth Stks

2011 SACRED CHOICE 5 6835 Ranvet Stakes

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He’s a Doozy picked in the Awapuni Gold Cup

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He’s a Doozy picked in the Awapuni Gold Cup

 HE’S A DOOZY is selected to win the Awapuni Gold Cup on Saturday. The Latta trained runner has won 6 races at Trentham and will be hard to beat on that factor. He won last time out on the course 9/3 and had a trial to prepare for this a few days ago. Biggest danger will be SKYMAN, who is the equal top-rated with He’s A Doozy. Skyman hinted at a quick return two weeks ago when he was swamped over 1600m. Prior to that he raced in two G1s. Backing He’s A Doozy and Skyman is the way to go in this.

Awapuni Gold Cup WFA 2000m (G2)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE

2023 BRANDO 1st Japan/BOP Trophy

2022 ZOLA EXPRESS Fifth Cuddles Stakes

2021 BEAUDEN 4th G1 NZ Stakes

2020 No race (covid lockdown)

2019 JACKSSTAR 5th Avondale Cup

2018 OUR ABBADEAN 1st Trentham

2017 SAMPSON unpl Avondale Cup

2016 MAYGROVE 2nd Waverley

2015 IAMISHWARA 6th NZ Stakes

2014 SORIANO 4th NZ Stakes

2013 BETTER THAN EVER unpl NZ Stakes

2012 RIOMORAL unpl NZ Stakes

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Chantilly Lace picked in the Manawatu Classic

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Chantilly Lace picked in the Manawatu Classic

Investigate worth a bet

CHANTILLY LACE is my selection to win the Manawatu Classic at Trentham on Saturday. She was disappointing in the Oaks last time but I would give her the benefit of the doubt because she raced in the Lowland Stakes at Taupo 8 days earlier and maybe the quick backup did not suit. Chantilly Ace is a wet track specialist so rain will help her. MOONLIGHT MAGIC and WREN are interesting runners from the Andrew Forsman stable. They both ran in the NZ Oaks last time. Moonlight Magic at her 6th start and Wren at her 5th start. Both fillies are in with a show here. JUST AS SHARP ran 4th in the Derby. He is the top rated horse in the race by a long way. At R78, he is 9 points ahead of Chantilly Ace who is the second top rated, but just like Chantilly Lace has not won for a wee while. INVESTIGATE is the improver. He was an easy winner of a New Plymouth maiden when successful as the odds-on favourite. He could just be the three year old find of the season as far as the stayers go. Will we see him compete in the Queensland Derby in June? If he wins this the answer will be probably.

My verdict is to back Chantilly Lace if wet but Investigate if the going is not too bad, say a soft 7 or better.

Manawatu Classic 3YO 2000m G3

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE RATING

2023 ARBY 6th Levin Turf Classic 65

2022 AMALFI PRINCE Second R65 Mata 64

2021 JOY ALONE 6th MAAT Ellerslie 62

2020 No race (covid lockdown)

2019 THE CHOSEN ONE 11th NZ Derby 74

2018 SHERIFF 2nd 3YO Ellerslie 67

2017 CHARLES ROAD 6th NZ Derby 73

2016 HUMIDOR unpl NZ Derby 63

2015 EXQUISITE JEWEL 4th NZ Oaks 78

2014 LADY CUMQUAT 3rd Ellerslie 67

2013 SURVIVED R75 Rotorua 75

2012 MALANDRINO R65 Te Awamutu 71

Favourites tend to do well in this race with The Chosen One, Sheriff, Charles Road, Humidor, and Lady Cumquat all being favourites while Malandrino was 2nd favourite. 

Five of the last six winners last raced at Group one level last time.

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Raptylight nap at Ashburton on Thursday

Raptylight nap at Ashburton on Thursday

RAPTYLIGHT finished 4th in a listed 3YO fillies race at Wingatui last time out and is my selection to win race 10 at Ashburton with Lisa Allpress in the saddle. She has more scope for improvement than most in this field. 3YO fillies tend to peak during the Autumn and this is one of them.

LADY TELANA has raced in five black type events in a row including two Group 1s. She was narrowly beaten last time and must surely be the one to beat in race 9.

LITIGATOR is a last time course and distance winner and is selected to win again under Lisa Allpress. He is racing at 2200m and long distance winners tend to win again. A good jockey tends to have a good strike rate with last race winners.

NUNCIO finished placed on debut on a soft track at Ashburton in the Spring then finished unplaced in two runs on good tracks. He is capable of winning first up with the sting out of the track.

Selections:

Race 1-Channa

Race 2-Zoom

Race 3-Infernape

Race 4-Nuncio

Race 5-Yaksha

Race 6-Can’t Kach Me

Race 7-Litagator

Race 8-Westwood

Race 9-Lady Telena

Race 10-Raptylight

Race 11-Royal Valour

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Heavy track betting system

Heavy track ratings

Only form in heavy going is considered for this system. 

THE SYSTEM

The strategy is to calculate the CONSISTENCY RATE in heavy going for each horse! That is the % of placings to starts in heavy going! For example; a horse that has raced once in heavy going for one place has a 100% record of finishing in the money in heavy going. For the purposes of this system a place is 1st, 2nd, or third.

The first rule is: ELIMINATE ANY HORSE THAT HAS NOT FINISHED IN THE MONEY (1st, 2nd, or 3rd) IN AT LEAST 50% of it heavy track starts.

There will undoubtedly be more than one qualifier in each race therefore preference will always be for the horse that has the highest rating.

The second rule is: The system is  applicable for use at the following tracks:

Avondale, Awapuni, Ellerslie, Invercargill,  New Plymouth, Otaki, Pukekohe, Riccarton, Riverton, Rotorua, Te Aroha, Trentham, Wingatui.

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Classic Diva for Riverton

Classic Diva improver for Riverton on Monday

Classic Diva is the improver for day 2 at Riverton. The Tyler trained mare may have finished 7th on Saturday but she has a huge weight drop thanks to a 4kg claimer. She has a good record at Riverton and is a likely improver here.

Classic Diva’s stable mate Zambezi Zipper is another to watch. She has won three races at Riverton and is a real wet tracker. She is coming off a seven day backup having raced at Gore 10/3 and Wingatui 17/3.

Gentle Ben will be going for 2 wins at the meeting in race 7 having won a maiden on day 1. This is a maiden he will run in again. Almanac is one for odds in this race.

Seikrid (race 8) and Diamond Riviere (race 6) are other good chances,

Selections

Race 1-Classic Diva

Race 2-Aglow

Race 3-Radiant Reach

Race 4-Justanace

Race 5-Zambezi Zipper

Race 6-Diamond Riviere

Race 7-Gentle Ben

Race 8-Seikrid

Race 9-The Immigrant

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Queen’s Cup at Mussleburgh

Chillingham favourite for the Queen’s Cup

Chillingham is the favourite for Saturday’s Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh. There is a lot to like about his form line. He ran a close second at Wolverhampton last time but his turf form is better which is 7 starts for 3 wins and a second. He has never won on the all weather. Sweet Fantasy is a market leader. He won two hurdles races recently, but does have flat form but this is his first race in class 2.

Metier has also raced over hurdles. He finished out of the money in a Sandown hurdles race last time and will be fit for this. He finished second at Mussleburgh a year ago and is a real live chance here. Struth is about the Fourth favourite. He has good turf form but in class 3 and lower. It should be noted for future reference that Struth is unbeaten at Chester.

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Queens Cup at Musselburgh

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS WEIGHT

2022 Enemy 11/1 9.2

2021 Themaxwecan 13/2 9.5

2020 no race

2019 Austrian School 4/1f 9.5

2018 Brandon Castle 10/1 8.11

2017 Carbon Dating 12/1 9.7

2016 no race

2015 Butlez 16/1 8.12

2014 Johnny Delta 12/1 8.5

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#queenscup #musselburgh #ukhorseracing #flatracing #ukflat