Backing race horses is certainly not a matter of just finding the winner, it is finding value and this requires experience and a certain amount of courage. It often requires you to go against the crowd who have labelled something as a good thing. and that requires a certain amount of courage because so many punters bet on the favourite because it gives them a sense of security in the knowledge that other punters are betting the same way and guess what is happening? The favourite is at a much shorter price than it should be.
The result of all of this is that an astute punter can obtain value from other runners.
So how does a punter know when a horse is a poor value runner in relation to its chances of winning? That all comes down to experience but I do have a list of the type of horses who should not be backed at short odds.
It all boils down to eliminating those horses who are not statistically favoured to win. Is there a reason why a horse may not win such as it is returning from a layoff or is unknown in the prevailing track conditions? If so then why would any punter accept short odds about such a horse?
What it all boils down to is “It is not the number of winner you back but the number of losers which are among them in relation to your winners. If you are able to reduce your loses by not taking vulnerable short priced favourites then you are in a better position to be able to make the game pay.
Finding longer priced winners requires a certain amount of insight. It requires the punter to back horses who are over the odds and that all boils down to experience.
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