Friendly Soul favourite for the Muscadora Stakes

Friendly Soul favourite for the Muscadora Stakes 

It is hard to go past the favourite FRIENDLY SOUL for Wednesday’s Muscadora Stakes at York. This filly is unbeaten with her most recent win coming at Newmarket 10 days ago in listed company at just her second race start. It takes a good horse to win a black type race at their second start. The biggest danger will be SEA JUST IN TIME. This filly won on debut at Newmarket and there is no knowing just how good this one will turn out to be. This is the risk of labelling Friendly Soul as a nap bet.

Musidora Stakes at York (UK) 3YO 1m2f 100 yards (G3)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023    Soul Sister                   11/4     1×0     Unplaced G3 Newbury

2022 Emily Upjohn 4/7f 11 Won C4 Nov Sandown

2021 Snowfall 14/1 4598X 8^th G1 2YO Newmarket

2020 No race

2019 Nausha 14/1 1X4 4^th C2 3YO Kempton

2018 Give and Take 7/2 221X2 2^nd C4 3YO Nov Sandown

2017 Shutter Speed 4/7f 1X1 Won C3 3YO Newbury

2016 So Mi Dar 4/5f 1X1 Won C2 3YO Epsom

2015 Star of Seville 4/6f 31X1 Won C3 3YO

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Dante Stakes at York (G2) 3YO 1m2f

Thursday

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2022 Desert Crown 7/2j 1X Won maiden Nottingham

2021 Hurricane Lane 5/1 1X1 Won C3 Newbury

2020 Thunderous 13/2 111X2 Second listed Newmarket

2019 Telecaster 7/1 21 Won C5 Windsor

2018 Roaring Lion 3/1f 12X35 Fifth 2000 Guineas

2017 Permian 10/1 3X321 Won listed Newmarket

2016 Wings of Desire 9/1 31 Won maiden Wolverhampton

2015 Golden Horn 4/1 1X1 Won listed Newmarket

2014 The Great Gadsby 9/1 27X20 Unpl 2000 Guineas

2013 Liberterian 33/1 14 Fourth G3 Sandown

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#dantestakes #york #ukracing

Illinois picked for the Derby Trial at Lingfield

Illinois picked for the Derby Trial at Lingfield

ILLINOIS will be hard to beat in the Derby Trial at Lingfield on Saturday. This horse has had three races for a 13×3 form line. His most recent run was in heavy going so you can disregard that effort. He was the odds-on beaten favourite in that race too. At his second start he ran in a G1 at Saint Cloud and it takes a good horse to be running in G1 at their second start. Illinois is unbeaten below Group 3 level and this is a listed race. Big danger to Illinois is possibly DEFIANCE, who ran second at listed company at Epsom last time out. He too, has just had the three runs. His only unplaced effort came at G2 level at Newmarket.

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Lingfield (UK) Derby Trial (listed) 1m2f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Military Order Evs 41×1 Won Novice Newbury

2022 United Nations 9/4 17×4 Fourth listed race Epsom

2021 Third Realm 14/1 5×1 Won maiden Nottingham

2020 English King 9/4jf 71x Won Newmarket maiden

2019 Anthony Van Dyke 2/1f 1239x Unplaced G1 Chantilly (Fr)

2018 Knight to Behold 7/1 21x Won Newmarket maiden

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Goodwood Stakes at Morphettville

Sky Angel dangerous lightweight in the Goodwood Stakes 

SKY ANGEL has only had six race starts for four wins. Her ponly defeats to date were in the Caulfield Guineas over 1600m and at Bendigo when resuming at Bendigo with 61kg. She won last time out over the same course and distance as she runs over on Saturday. AMELIA’S JEWEL will be tough to beat. She ran second in the Qokka at Perth last time out and is a mare of the highest quality. OSCAR’S FORTUNE is another to watch. He ran third in the Qokka last time and like Sky Angel gets in well at the weights. LEARNING TO FLY, BENEDETTA, and CLIMBING STAR are three others to watch. They ran second, third, and first in the Robert Sangster Stakes last time out.

The Goodwood at Morphettville (G1) 1200m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023

2022 Lombardo 6162 Second Caulfield 

2021 Savatoxl 41X91 1st Morphettville

2020 Trekking 2472 2nd G3 Randwick

2019 Dispatch 51 1st G3 Morphettville

2018 Santa Ana Lane 4163 3rd G3 Morphettville

2017 Vega Magic 9171 1st G3 Ascot WA Aus

2016 Black Heart Bart 2212 2nd G1 Randwick

2015 Flamberge 3230 Unpl G1 Rosehill

2014 Smokin Joey 8036 6th Victoria Hcp Caulfield

2013 Platelet 2521 1st G1 Morphettville

2012 Black Caviar 111X1 1st Sangster Stakes Morphettville

2011 Velocity 1012 2nd G1 Morphettville

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#thegoodwood #morphettville #adelaide

Huetor picked for the Hollindale Stakes

Huetor picked for the Hollindale Stakes 

HUETOR is the one to beat in the Hollindale Stakes. This horse ran some good races on last year’s Queensland Winter carnival and without Zaaki to face this year, he can back up his JRA Plate victory with another win here. OSMOSE and KOVALICA could be the dangers here. Osmose was a black type winner two starts back while Kovalica won in top form this time last year and is not to be written off despite his average form.

Hollinsdale Stakes at the Sunshine Coast WFA Group 2 1800m

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 Zaaki 341×2 2^nd All Aged Stakes

2022 Zaaki 1X212 Second Queen Elizabeth Stakes

2021 Zaaki 47X62 2nd JRA Plate

2019 Life Less Ordinary 233X8 8th Doncaster Handicap

2018 Oregons Day 2224 4th Coolmore Legacy Stakes

2017 Itssomewhat 23X11 1st Doncaster Handicap

2016 Leebaz X5610 Unplaced Queen Elizabeth Stakes

2015 Leebaz 6302 2nd JRA Plate Randwick

2014 Streama 6604 4th Queen of the Turf Stakes

2013 Lights of Heaven 0X021 1st Sellwood Stakes Rosehill

2012 Shez Sensational 1311 1st OHCP Tauranga

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#hollindalestakes #goldcoast #zaaki

Hamish Favourite for the Ormonde Stakes

Hamish Favourite for the Ormonde Stakes 

Hamish will be going for his third win in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester on Wednesday (UK time). He is unbeaten at Chester because those are his only appearances there. Hamish has been the favourite at six of his last seven races and the second favourite at the other one. His career record is seventeen starts for ten wins, four seconds, and one third. He has won his last five races on end with the most recent win being at G3 level at Newbury on his season’s reappearance.

Ormonde Stakes at Chester (G3) 1m5f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS LAST RACE

2023 Hamish 10/11 Second G3 Newbury

2022 Hamish 9/2 7^th listed race Kempton

2021 Japan 13/8F 9th G1 Ascot (October)

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Morando 3/1 1st G3 Newbury

2018 Idaho 8/11F 8th G1 Meydan

2017 Western Hymn 7/2 1st listed race Kempton

2016 Dartmouth evsF 1st G3 CFD

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Chester Vase attracts an open field

Chester Vase attracts an open field

As is always the case, the Chester Vase has attracted an unexposed bunch of youngsters, but despite it being a nightmare for form students the favourite has a good record in the race with all of the last 11 winners being at 8/1 or less and 5 of them were the favourite.

This leads us to take a look at the favourite for this year’s running. It is Grosvenor Square who is currently at evens. This horse has not raced since last October when winning a Group 3 event at Leopardstown. His career record is 131x It has been noted that each of his three races to date were on rain affected going. He has never raced on good going. On the plus side is this: He won in heavy going over 1m1f at his third start. It requires stamina to win in heavy going and I have no doubt that he will get the 1m4f distance.

Hidden Law is a horse who has to be considered. He is from the in-form Charlie Appleby. He has a 21 form line. At least 5 of the last 11 winners of this race were last race maiden winners.  Hidden Law is around 3/1 as is Cadogan Place from the Andrew Balding Yard. This horse is unbeaten after winning on debut. US Army Ranger (2016) and Ruler of the World (2013) were two previous winners of this race who were coming off a debut win. Both were at odds-on.

Chester Vase 3YO (Gp3) 1m 4f 

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Arrest 10/11f 3112X Second G1 Saint Cloud (Fr)

2022 Changingoftheguard 100/30 4521 Won Dundalk maiden

2021 Youth Spirit 7/1 4134 4th Listed race Newmarket

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2018 Young Rascal 100/30 21 1st Maiden Newbury

2017 Venice Beach 5/2F 231 1st Maiden Tipperary

2016 US Army Ranger 4/11F 1 1st Curragh

2015 Hans Holbein 7/4F 421 1st Maiden Leopardstown

2013 Ruler of the World 10/11F 1 1st Maiden Curragh

2012 Mickdaam 8/1 2142X 2nd C2 Newmarket

2011 Treasure Beach 7/2 1123X 3rd Ascot 2YO

2010 Ted Spread 8/1 713X 3rd C2 2YO Newmarket

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#chestervase #chester #ukhorseracing #britishhorseracing 

The Australian Three Year Racing System

The Australian Three Year Racing System

Last week there were a stack of three year old races held around Australia. I normally go for those horses that raced at Group or listed level last time but the problem is, how do you know which level the horse raced at if this info is not given in the form guides?

A more simpler method of operation is this: Focus on the six top rated horses in the race and the top six favourites. 

I think if any horse features on both lists it is worth backing.

Here are the winners of the 3YO races last Saturday.

RACE WINNER RATING ODDS

Adelaide Guineas Pojfect 72 (2) $2.70

STH Aus Derby Coco Sun 80 (6) $4.70

Hawkesbury Guineas Schwarz 88 (1=) $2.40

Queensland Guineas Kintyre 84 (2) $7.80

Examples from 27 April

Bronze Stakes Skybird 87 (2) $7.60

Australasian Oaks Vibrant Sun 80 (4=) $6.00

Chairman’s Stakes Bold Soul 82 (2) $4.50

IRTVobis Platinum GuineasElphinstone 68 (3) $3.20

Here are some examples from 13 May 2023

Denise’s Joy Stakes Red Card 77 (2) $8.90

Cameron Ryan Plate Ocean’s Above 65 (6) $10.50

The Rose Room Sprint Airman 74 (1=) $3.50

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Rotorua Horse Racing Betting System

Rotorua Horse Racing Betting System

Here is a system for the Rotorua meeting this coming Saturday 11 May, 2024. Rotorua is a noted horses for courses track so you would expect trainers of past winners at Rotorua to target this meeting. I think the same thing will probably apply to the Chester Cup in England  meeting which starts on 8 May (UK time).

Rule one. Note all horses which have won at Rotorua

Rule two. Horse must have a career strike-rate of at least 20% wins to starts.

That’s it.

Here are some results from the past three years.

Hey Hey Baby career record 4-1-0-0 Course record 1-1-0-0 $5.00

Poser career record 15-3-1-1 Course record 3-1-0-0 $8.30

Raajoices career record 5-1-0-0 Course record 1-1-0-0 $4.40

Calipurna career record 25-5-1-2 Course record 5-4-0-0 $4.70

Pop Star Princess career record 36-8-9-2 Course record 5-1-2- $6.10

Supreme Heights career record 19-7-3-2 Course record 2-2-0-0 2^nd $1.60

Pop Star Princess and Supreme Heights finished first and second in the 2021 Rotorua Stakes. 

New Plymouth Horse Racing Betting System

Here is a simple horse racing system for this Saturday’s Taranaki meeting at New Plymouth. Simply note all of the Taranaki trained horses and back the one at the shortest price. This is a meeting which Taranaki trainers target and have dominated in recent years. Allan Sharrock and Robbie Patterson are the two leading Taranaki trainers. These two have the best strike-rate of any New Zealand trainer in the top ten.

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Kaipana top chance at Newmarket

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Kaipana hard to beat in the Pretty Polly Stakes

KAIPANA won at Newmarket by 10 lengths last time out. On that basis I am picking him to win again. He has a 121 form line from three starts. His first two races were on the all weather. If his turf debut is anything to go by he has a bright future.

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William Hill Pretty Polly Stakes (listed) 1m2f 3YOF

Newmarket (UK) on Sunday

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Running Lion 100/30 411×1 Won C2 Kempton

2022 With the Moonlight 3/1 4113X Third listed 2YO Newmarket

2021 Mystery Angel 13/2 2225X Fifth listed 2YO St Cloud (Fr)

2020 Run Wild 11/2 1423X Third listed race Newmarket

2019 Maqsad 5/4f 23X1 Won Newmarket maiden

2018 Lah Ti Dah Evsf 1 Won maiden Newbury

2017 Horse Play 11/2 41X Won maiden 2YO Nottingham

2016 Swiss Range 6/4 2X1 Won maiden Newmarket

2015 Jazzi Top 5/2 33X1 Won maiden Kempton

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#prettypollystakes #newmarket #ukhorseracing

Antino picked at Eagle Farm

Antino picked at Eagle Farm

ANTINO has a terrific strike-rate of nine wins from fourteen starts. He has won four races from five starts at Eagle Farm and is unbeaten at 1200m so oin that basis I think the Tony Gollan horse will win the Victory Stakes today. UNCOMMON JAMES will be his biggest danger. This horse has been running around in Group 1 company so will appreciate the drop to Group 2.

TRANSATLANTIC and PRESS LINK are my two for the Queensland Guineas. Both are progressive horses who are open to further improvement.

WEGALL TIGER is in races 5 and 7 at Eagle Farm and is worth backing. This is a smart youngster who I expect will be ready to win first up.

Victory Stakes at Eagle Farm (G2) 1200m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Rothfire $4.00 285×2 2^nd Ascot Handicap

2022 Count Du Rupee $7.50 1×042 2^nd Hallmark Stakes Randwick

Queensland Guineas at Eagle Farm (G2) 1600m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Kovalica $2.60 111×3 3^rd South Pacific Stakes

2022 Character $6.00 1310 Unplaced ATC Derby

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