Sapphire Seas picked in the Middleton Stakes at York

Sapphire Seas picked in the Middleton Stakes at York

SAPPHIRE SEAS is my pick to win the MIddleton Stakes at York on Thursday. The Appleby trained mare has clearly the best form line of the race and has shown that she is capable of winning this. She is also unbeaten at York. William Buick rides her. 4/1 seems very generous odds for her when you consider that the first two favourites Free Wind and Bluestocking do not have any wins in their exposed form line.

Middleton Fillies Stakes at York (G2) 1m2f

Thursday

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Free Wind 6/5f 2111x Won G2 Haydock

2022 Lilac Road 15/2 912X5 Fifth G2 Newmarket

2021 Queen Power 6/4f 343X2 Second G2 Newmarket

2020 No race

2019 Lah Di Dah 1/3f 1123X Third G1 Ascot

2018 Coronet 2/1f 4253X Third G1 Ascot

2017 Blond Me Information unavailable

2016 Beautiful Romance 5/1 6253X Third G1 Ascot

2015 Secret Gester Information unavailable

2014 Ambivalent 9/2 1923X Third Meydan Mey

2013 Dalkala 2/1f 315X4 Fourth G2 Longchamp

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Friendly Soul favourite for the Muscadora Stakes

Friendly Soul favourite for the Muscadora Stakes 

It is hard to go past the favourite FRIENDLY SOUL for Wednesday’s Muscadora Stakes at York. This filly is unbeaten with her most recent win coming at Newmarket 10 days ago in listed company at just her second race start. It takes a good horse to win a black type race at their second start. The biggest danger will be SEA JUST IN TIME. This filly won on debut at Newmarket and there is no knowing just how good this one will turn out to be. This is the risk of labelling Friendly Soul as a nap bet.

Musidora Stakes at York (UK) 3YO 1m2f 100 yards (G3)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023    Soul Sister                   11/4     1×0     Unplaced G3 Newbury

2022 Emily Upjohn 4/7f 11 Won C4 Nov Sandown

2021 Snowfall 14/1 4598X 8^th G1 2YO Newmarket

2020 No race

2019 Nausha 14/1 1X4 4^th C2 3YO Kempton

2018 Give and Take 7/2 221X2 2^nd C4 3YO Nov Sandown

2017 Shutter Speed 4/7f 1X1 Won C3 3YO Newbury

2016 So Mi Dar 4/5f 1X1 Won C2 3YO Epsom

2015 Star of Seville 4/6f 31X1 Won C3 3YO

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#york #yorkuk

Dante Stakes at York (G2) 3YO 1m2f

Thursday

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2022 Desert Crown 7/2j 1X Won maiden Nottingham

2021 Hurricane Lane 5/1 1X1 Won C3 Newbury

2020 Thunderous 13/2 111X2 Second listed Newmarket

2019 Telecaster 7/1 21 Won C5 Windsor

2018 Roaring Lion 3/1f 12X35 Fifth 2000 Guineas

2017 Permian 10/1 3X321 Won listed Newmarket

2016 Wings of Desire 9/1 31 Won maiden Wolverhampton

2015 Golden Horn 4/1 1X1 Won listed Newmarket

2014 The Great Gadsby 9/1 27X20 Unpl 2000 Guineas

2013 Liberterian 33/1 14 Fourth G3 Sandown

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#dantestakes #york #ukracing

Swingalong picked for the Duke of York Clipper Stakes at York

Swingalong picked for the Duke of York Clipper Stakes at York

SWINGALONG is my pick for the Clipper Stakes at York on Wednesday. This mare has a good strike-rate away from Group 1 company. She has had five Group 1 starts without a win but has won three of his other six starts. She is unbeaten in G2 races, (1 start for 1 win) and unbeaten at York, (2 starts for 2 wins), therefore she is my selection for this race.

Duke of York Clipper Stakes at York (G2) 6f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Azure Blue 12/1 411×1 Won Newmarket

2022 Highfield Princess 11/2 3521 Won C2 Newcastle

2021 Starman 5/1 1110X Unplaced G1 Ascot

2020 No race due to covid lock down

2019 Invincible Army 7/2jf 299X1 Won listed Doncaster

2018 Harry’s Angel 4/9f 2114X Fourth G1 Ascot

2017 Tasleet 14/1 2182 Second listed Leicester

2016 Magic Memory 5/2f 113X1 Won G3 Newmarket

2015 Glass Office 40/1 5467 7^th G3 Newmarket

2014 Maarek 12/1 10X72 Second listed Naas

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#dukeofyorkstakes #yorkdante #ukmeeting

Danielle strong favourite at Lingfield (UK)

Danielle strong favourite at Lingfield (UK)

DANIELLE won a novice at Wetherby by 12 lengths last time out. She was the odds-on favourite which makes this filly a strong chancer here despite the obvious class rise. Five of the last six winners of this race started at a low class track last time out. Rubies are Red was a non-runner in the Cheshire Oaks in favour of this. She is the next best and could push Danielle hard on good going. She was the beaten favourite in heavy going last time. You can always forgive a beaten favourite in heavy going.

Lingfield (UK) Oaks Trial 

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Eternal Hope 9/4 31x Won Chelmsford

2022 Rogue Millenium 15/2 15×1 Fifth Wetherby

2021 Sherbert Lemon 28/1 1×4 forth Wetherby

2020 Miss Yoda Evs 112x 2^nd G3 Newmarket

2019 Anapurna 7/4f 91x Won Lingfield

2018 Perfect Clarity 5/1 1x Won Nottingham

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Illinois picked for the Derby Trial at Lingfield

Illinois picked for the Derby Trial at Lingfield

ILLINOIS will be hard to beat in the Derby Trial at Lingfield on Saturday. This horse has had three races for a 13×3 form line. His most recent run was in heavy going so you can disregard that effort. He was the odds-on beaten favourite in that race too. At his second start he ran in a G1 at Saint Cloud and it takes a good horse to be running in G1 at their second start. Illinois is unbeaten below Group 3 level and this is a listed race. Big danger to Illinois is possibly DEFIANCE, who ran second at listed company at Epsom last time out. He too, has just had the three runs. His only unplaced effort came at G2 level at Newmarket.

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Lingfield (UK) Derby Trial (listed) 1m2f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Military Order Evs 41×1 Won Novice Newbury

2022 United Nations 9/4 17×4 Fourth listed race Epsom

2021 Third Realm 14/1 5×1 Won maiden Nottingham

2020 English King 9/4jf 71x Won Newmarket maiden

2019 Anthony Van Dyke 2/1f 1239x Unplaced G1 Chantilly (Fr)

2018 Knight to Behold 7/1 21x Won Newmarket maiden

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Astradeel picked for the Wairio Cup

Astradeel picked for the Wairio Cup

ASTRADEEL is my selection for Sunday’s Wairio Cup in Invercargill. This horse handles heavy going and has taken on better fields than this. He finished third in the Riverton Cup on Easter Saturday. He finished fifth in the Great Autumn Stakes last time and that was on the fourth of May so he will be fit. He has a good record on Southland tracks.

PEECEE PUSSYCAT is a longshot to consider and has won in heavy going in the North Island but whether he can cope with a Southland heavy track is a question which we will get the answer to here.

Wairio Cup at Invercargill 2200m

(Sunday)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 Take the Deel 8098 Eight Timaru

2022 Pinhead 1423 Third Riccarton

2021 Ruby Marie 4911 Won Riverton

2020 No race due to covid lock down

2019 Lil Swiss Miss 1165 Fifth Great Autumn Stakes

2018 Shakti 5610 Unplaced Riccarton

2017 Miss Three Stars 8564 Fourth Great Autumn Stakes

2016 The Gordonian 8X661 Won Riverton

2015 Motorbike Muike 5222 Second Riverton

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#wairiocup #invercargillracing #bettingtips

Rotorua selections

Here is a system for the Rotorua meeting this coming Saturday 11 May, 2024. Rotorua is a noted horses for courses track so you would expect trainers of past winners at Rotorua to target this meeting. I think the same thing will probably apply to the Chester Cup in England  meeting which starts on 8 May (UK time).

Rule one. Note all horses which have won at Rotorua

Rule two. Horse must have a career strike-rate of at least 20% wins to starts.

That’s it.

Here are some results from the past three years.

Hey Hey Baby career record 4-1-0-0 Course record 1-1-0-0 $5.00

Poser career record 15-3-1-1 Course record 3-1-0-0 $8.30

Raajoices career record 5-1-0-0 Course record 1-1-0-0 $4.40

Calipurna career record 25-5-1-2 Course record 5-4-0-0 $4.70

Pop Star Princess career record 36-8-9-2 Course record 5-1-2- $6.10

Supreme Heights career record 19-7-3-2 Course record 2-2-0-0 2^nd $1.60

Pop Star Princess and Supreme Heights finished first and second in the 2021 Rotorua Stakes. 

System selections for 11/5/24

Race 1-Itza Charmeel

Race 4-Nigella Lane

Race 7-Imprevu

Note in race 6, Raajoices has had two starts at Rotorua for two wins.

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Hamish Favourite for the Ormonde Stakes

Hamish Favourite for the Ormonde Stakes 

Hamish will be going for his third win in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester on Wednesday (UK time). He is unbeaten at Chester because those are his only appearances there. Hamish has been the favourite at six of his last seven races and the second favourite at the other one. His career record is seventeen starts for ten wins, four seconds, and one third. He has won his last five races on end with the most recent win being at G3 level at Newbury on his season’s reappearance.

Ormonde Stakes at Chester (G3) 1m5f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS LAST RACE

2023 Hamish 10/11 Second G3 Newbury

2022 Hamish 9/2 7^th listed race Kempton

2021 Japan 13/8F 9th G1 Ascot (October)

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Morando 3/1 1st G3 Newbury

2018 Idaho 8/11F 8th G1 Meydan

2017 Western Hymn 7/2 1st listed race Kempton

2016 Dartmouth evsF 1st G3 CFD

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

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Galileo Dream picked to win the Cheshire Oaks

Galileo Dream picked to win the Cheshire Oaks

(Wednesday UK time)

GALILEO DREAM is my pick to win the Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday at Chester. This filly was an easy winner in heavy going at Leopardstown last time out. In similar conditions she will be hard to beat. RUBIES ARE RED finished second to Galileo Dream at Leopardstown and may be better suited by going which is not so heavy. In that case she is worth putting into your selections as a saver. BUTTONS is the best backed of Aidan O’Brien’s horses. This filly won on debut as a two year old in her only start in 2023. She resumed with a third and is an early improver. I expect any improving in the going will be in her favour. A big clue as to which is O’Brien’s chances is the choice of rider. Ryan Moore usually has the pick of O’Brien’s horses but can get it wrong sometimes. As for Buttons; she steps up from 7f and that is a concern but it should be noted that her only defeat came at Gp3 in heavy going and her only win was on good going.

Cheshire Oaks 3YOF 1m3f 75yds (listed)

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Savethelastdance 10/11 5X1 Won Maiden Leopardstown

2022 Thoughts of June 7/1 252 Second Leopardstown maiden

2021 Dubai Fountain 13/8F 2424 4th G1 2YO Newmarket

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Medaayih 3/1F 6211 1st Chelmsford

2018 Magic Wand 3/1F 73 3rd Maiden Leopardstown

2017 Enable 2/1 13 3rd Newbury

2016 Somehow 8/15F 31 1st Leopardstown

2015 Diamonds and Rubies 5/4F 613 3rd Navan

2014 Anipa 16/1 2411 1st Windsor

2013 Banoffeel 9/1 1 1st Maiden Newbury

2012 Good Morning 50/1 1325 5th Beverley

2011 Wonder of Wonders 6/5F 271 1st Tipperary

2010 Gertrude Belle 5/2 3321 1st Maiden Newbury

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Silver Lady nap at Newmarket

Photo by Clara Vecchietti on Pexels.com

Silver Lady hard to beat at Newmarket

SILVER LADY is my nap bet for the day at Newmarket on Sunday. This mare won a G2 at Meydan Mey last time out. That being her second win in five starts. A horse that has raced six times or less and has a Group win to their credit must be above average. Silver Lady is at 4/1. Running Lion, who won the Pretty Polly Stakes last year is the favourite. He has a better record on the all weather. His turf record is 1 win from 6 starts.

William Hill Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket (G2) 1m1f

(Newmarket on Sunday)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Via Sistina 5/2f 0421x Won Toulouis

2022 Dreamloper 4/1 1403x Third G1 Newmarket

2021 Lord Bowthorpe 6/1 4166x Sixth G1 Newmarket

2020 Terebellum 10/11f 1315x Fifth G1 Leopardstown

2019 Worth Waiting 3/1 1114x Fourth G1 Longchamp

2018 Wuneida 10/11f 3441x Won G1 Delmar 

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