Aviatress picked to win first up at Morphettville

Aviatress picked to win first up at Morphettville

 AVIATRESS (race 1 Morphettville) has a form line of 114x She raced in the Red Roses at Flemington 9/11/23 last time out. That being her only defeat. This race is an R68 event. She is unbeaten in non-stakes races. AVIATRESS is also unbeaten at Morphettville.

The Breeders Stakes is normally won by the favourite. Khadme won on debut at Sandown but whether he is good enough to win this is another matter but it is worth noting that debutante 2YO winners often win again at this time of the year.

SECOND TO NUN has a change of rider in race 9 at Morphettville. Jamie Kah is aboard her. She has a fair strike-rate and is nicely-weighted.

Jimmysstar best pick at Rosehill (race 8)

JIMMYSSTAR finished out of the first three for the first time at Newcastle 8/3. That was a Group 3 race and now back to an ordinary handicap in race 8 at Rosehill. This is a race which is winnable for him. He is unbeaten at 1600m. This will be his first race at Rosehill.

SEASCAPE won on debut at Gosford and could make it two from two in race 1 at Rosehill. She won by 4 lengths that day. PISCES is the only race winner engaged. James Cummings trains him.

New York Hurricane drops in weight at Caulfield

NEW YORK HURRICANE finished second at Bendigo last time out. He was conceding Co Co Sun 6kg that day. Co Co Sun is my tip for the G1 at Morphettville. He carried 61kg at Bendigo and drops to 57kg this time. He also carried 61kg when finishing second two starts back.

CHIHULY won 17/4 with 61kg and drops to 57kg. He has won twice at 2000m but needs a reasonable track.

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

http://www.facebook.com/winningfactors

Orchestral the one to beat in the Vinery Stud Stakes

Orchestral the one to beat in the Vinery Stud Stakes

Orchestral has taken the New Zealand racing scene by storm this season and is set to do likewise in Australia. She won the Magic Millions 3YO, the Avondale Guineas, and the NZ Derby and now takes on the Aussies. Zardozi and Kimochi are expected to finish second and third behind Orchestral. They are rated on 107, 102, and 98 respectively with the next highest rated runner being Autumn Angel on 88. Zardozi won the Phar Lap Stakes last time while Kimochi ran third in the G1 Coolmore Classic.

Vinery Stud Stakes at Rosehill (3YOF) G1 2000m

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM

2023    PROWESS                                   1st Pukekohe (NZ)

2022 FANGIRL Fourth Phar Lap Stakes 1X154

2021 HUNGRY HEART 1st Phar Lap Stakes 7X781

2020 SHOUT THE BAR 2nd Kembla Grange 12

2019 VERRY ELEEGANT 1st Phar lap Stakes 57×21

2018 HIYAAM 3rd Phar Lap Stakes 343×3

2017 MONTOYA’S SECRET 1st 3YO Moonee Valley 5221

2016 SINGLE GAZE 1st Kembla Grange 0221

2015 FENWAY 4th Matron Stakes 43×44

2014 LUCIA VALENTINA unpl Coolmore Classic F2x30

2013 NORZITA 3rd Coolmore Classic 1×123

2012 MOSHEEN 1st Randwick Guineas x1211

www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

http://www.facebook.com/winningfactors

Riff Rocket picked at Rosehill

Photo by @coldbeer on Pexels.com

Think it Over hard to beat in the Ranvet Stakes

Riff Rocket can beat him

RIFF ROCKET was the beaten favourite in the Australia Guineas and I think he can make amends in the Ranvet Stakes over 2000m. I think the 1600m in the Guineas may have been on the short side as he did win the Victoria Derby in November. Riff Rocket has only finished outside the first three just once in nine race appearances. THINK IT OVER is a classy type and it will take a horse who is right in that zone to knock him over. VIA SISTENA and PLACE DU CARROUNSEL are making their Australian debuts for Chris Waller and the Freedman’s respectively. Her last four races were in Group 1s but this is a different kettle of fish. Place Du Carrounsel won at G1 level in France in 2022 and last year at G2 and 3 level also in France but this is going to be a steeper mountain to climb for him.

Ranvet Stakes  at Rosehill (G1) 2000m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM PREVIOUS RACE

2023 DUBAI HONOUR 2426x 6th G1 Champion Stakes, Ascot (UK)

2022 MONTEFILIA 214X7 7^th Chipping Norton Stakes

2021 VERRY ELLEEGANT 37X31 1st Chipping Norton Stakes

2020 ADDEYBB 1212X 2nd Champion Stakes (Ascot UK)

2019 AVILIUS 0X115 5th Australian Cup

2019 GAILO CHOP 1X112 2nd Australian Cup

2017 HARTNELL 23X28 8th Chipping Norton Stakes

2016 THE UNITED STATES 10X52 2nd Blaimey Stakes

2015 CONTRIBUTER 18X11 1st Chipping Norton Stakes

www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

http://www.facebook.com/winningfactors

Sunshine in Paris and Uncommon James picked in the Galaxy Sprint

.Sunshine in Paris and Uncommon James picked in Galaxy Sprint at Rosehill

A very open field will line up in the Galaxy Sprint; my selections are Sunshine in Paris and Uncommon James. They are drawn 1 and 2. Sunshine in Paris has had just 6 starts and has never finished out of the first three. She has never been beaten first up. Uncommon James is also first up.He has never run out of the first three first up. Several horses in this race are second up and you just have to wonder whether they may have been flattened on their first up run. King of Sparta and Passive Agressive are the other two horses I like. The highest rated last race winners of the meeting always have to be considered; they are rated 111 and 110 respectively.

Galaxy Sprint (G1) 1100m Rosehill

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 MARIAMIA $10.10 3×114 4th Millie Fox Stakes

2022 SHELBY SIXTY SIX $6.20 2121 Won Rosehill

2021 EDUARDO $6.30 204X1 1st Randwick

2020 I AM EXCITED $26.40 77X52 2nd Wenon Stks (Randwick)

2019 NATURE STRIP $4.10 18×10 10th Oakleigh Plate (Caulfield)

2018 IN HER TIME $3.30 x112x 2nd Manikato Stakes (Moonee Valley)

2017 RUSSIAN REVOLUTION$2.90 1x114x 4th Coolmore Stud (Flemington)

2016 GRIANTE $16 587×0 Unpl Oakleigh Plate (Caufield)

2015 SWEET IDEA $13.80 2412x 2nd Myer Classic (Flemington)www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

Immediacy picked for the Rosehill Guineas

Immediacy picked for the Rosehill Guineas

IMMEDIACY has won three races out of three. Last time out he won the Autumn Classic at Caulfield and I think a horse that can win a black type race after only a few races must be well above average. He was dominant in his last win. Those horses that raced in the Randwick Guineas last. These ones are Tom Kitten, Cafe Millenium, Ganbare, Ceol Wulf, and Ducasse. These horses were within 2 lengths of the winner in the RAndwick Guineas.

Rosehill Guineas 3YO 2000m Group 1

YEAR WINNER FORM PREVIOUS RACE

2023 LINDERMANN 2×512 2nd Randwick Guineas

2022 ANAMOE 2X312 2^nd Randwick Guineas 

2021 MO’UNGA 17X32 2nd Randwick Guineas

2020 CASTLEVECCHIO 22X88 8th Randwick Guineas

2019 THE AUTUMN SUN 11×11 Randwick Guineas

2018 D’ARGENTO 1×137 Randwick Guineas

2017 GINGERNUTS 4111 NZ Derby

2016 TARZINO 31×42 Australian Guineas

2015 VOLKSTOK ‘N’ BARRELL 1132 NZ Derby

2014 CRITERION 4×428 Randwick Guineas

2013 ITS A DUNDEEL 27×41 Randwick Guineas

2012 LASER HAWK 11×13 Randwick Guineas

2011 JIMMY CHIOUX 1111 NZ Derby

www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

Phearson picked for the Ajax Stakes

Phearson picked for the Ajax Stakes

PHEARSON is my pick for the Ajax Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday in what is a very open race. But what he does have in his favour is that he is the only horse to have raced within the previous 2 weeks and is unbeaten at Rosehill. He is also a last race winner. AMOR VICTORIOUS at the bottom is a very promising horse on the way up and is worth attention. He has won 5 of his 10 races and finished placed in 3 others.

Ajax Stakes (G2) at Rosehill 1500m

YEAR WINNER Div FORM LAST RACE

2023 CEPHEUS $8.50 30×23 Third Doomben

2022 JUST FOLK $5.90 16X87 Seventh C.F.Orr Stakes

2021 I AM SUPERMAN $9.40 107X4 Fourth Flemington

2020 IMAGING 6.40 X20X8 8th LIverpool Stakes

2019 FIFTY STARS 5.00 1601 1st Blaimy Stakes

2017 ITS SOMEWHAT 10.40 4313X 3rd Coongy Classic

2016 ITS SOMEWHAT 9.80 7236 6th Liverpool Stakes

2015 BURBERO 8.10 1122 2nd Canterbury Cup

2014 MESSENE 2.60 X11X1 1st Nat Sprint (Canterbury)

www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

http://www.facebook.com/winningfactors

Les Vampires picked for the Phar Lap Stakes

Photo by Aliaksei Semirski on Pexels.com

Les Vampires picked for the Phar Lap Stakes

LES VAMPIRES ticks enough boxes to suggest that he is the one to beat in the Phar Lap Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday. He raced in the G1 Randwick Guineas a week ago and that being at his sixth race start. As I have always said, “A horse which races at G1 in it’s first six starts must be above average. Les Vampires ran third in the Hobartsville Stakes two starts ago. The second horse in that race won the Randwick Guineas so it is good form all round.

Phar Lap Stakes 3YO at Rosehill 1600m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR HORSE Div FORM LAST RACE

2023 ZOUGOTCHA $1.50 111×4 4th Surround Stakes

2022 MR MOZART 9.20 29X78 Eighth Futurity Stakes 

2020 FUNSTAR 1.50 211X2 2nd Surround Stakes

2019 VERRY ELLEEGANT 2.20 167X2 2nd Vanity Stakes

2018 UNFORGOTTEN 11.00 111X0 Unpl Surround Stakes

2017 FOXPLAY 1.80 14X24 4th Surround Stakes

2016 HATTORI HANZO 13.00 9X311 1st BM64 Moonee Valley

2015 WINX 2.60 22X75 5th Surround Stakes

2014 TRAITOR 7.00 X5121 1st BM72 Kens

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

http://www.facebook.com/winningfactors

Rosehill-Conscript will relish the wet

Photo by Bence Szemerey on Pexels.com

Rosehill-Conscript will relish the wet

CONSCRIPT has a terrific record in soft/heavy going that he is the one to beat in the Starlight STakes at Rosehill. Tim Clark rides him. QUICK TEMPO also loves it wet and is on a quick back up. THese are the two to back while Malcovich is also a show.

Starlight Stakes at Rosehill (listed) 1100m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2022 Zethus $9.50 8X136 6th Flkemington

2021 Vulpine $13.20 8726 6th Randwick

2020 Invictus Salute $6.40 0X571 1st Chosoir Stakes

Williamsburg picked in the Starlight STakes

WILLIAMSBURG will relish the heavy going if the going is that way today. He has won three races in heavy going but has not won on good going, His last five races were on good going. Williamsburg has raced in G1 events this season and is capable of taking this out.

Festival Stakes at Rosehill (G3) 1500m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2022 Dajraan $9.60 353X0 Unpol Randwick

2021 Ellsberg $2.30 2X127 7th Golden Rose

2020 Outrageous $5.00 245X1 1st Flemington

www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

www.facebook.com/winningfactors

Ausbred Rising Sun worth another chance in the Tulloch Stakes

Ausbred Rising Sun worth another chance in the Tulloch Stakes

AUSBRED SON finished eighth in last weeks Rosehill Guineas and is worth another chance in the Tulloch Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday. It was the first time he had finished outside the first three on Saturday. It is possible that he may improve with a little sting out of the track. TAVI TIME is one of the main dangers. He finished second at Eagle Farm last time and is another that won’t mind rain.

Tulloch Stakes at Rosehill  (3YO) 2000m (G2)

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE

2022 CHARACTER Third Phar Lap Stakes

2021 YALETOWN Fourth Phar Lap Stakes

2020 QUICK THINKER 1st Rosehill

2019 ANGEL OF TRUTH 5th BM78 Rosehill

2018 LEVENDI 2nd Alistar Clark Stakes Moonee Valley

2017 JON SNOW 3rd NZ Derby Ellerslie

2016 OLD NORTH 4th Phar Lap Stakes Rosehill

2015 HAURAKI 2nd Phar Lap Stakes Rosehill

2014 GALLATIN 5th Kensington

2013 PHILIPPI 2nd Alistar Clark Stakes Moonee Valley

2012 POLISH KNIGHT 9th 3YO HCP Caulfield 

www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

Eduardo to go one better at Rosehill

Photo by @coldbeer on Pexels.com

Eduardo to go one better at Rosehill

Shades of Rose the danger

EDUARDO just got knocked off last time at Randwick and is strongly favoured to go one better but there is a question mark about him backing that effort up second up. If he is unable to then SHADES OF ROSE is an excellent alternative as she has won 7 of 10 races and last raced in the Everest in October.

Galaxy Sprint (G1) 1100m Rosehill

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2022 SHELBY SIXTYSIX $6.20 2121 Won Rosehill

2021 EDUARDO $6.30 204X1 1st Randwick

2020 I AM EXCITED $26.40 77X52 2nd Wenon Stks (Randwick)

2019 NATURE STRIP $4.10 18×10 10th Oakleigh Plate (Caulfield)

2018 IN HER TIME $3.30 x112x 2nd Manikato Stakes (Moonee Valley)

2017 RUSSIAN REVOLUTION$2.90 1x114x 4th Coolmore Stud (Flemington)

2016 GRIANTE $16 587×0 Unpl Oakleigh Plate (Caufield)

2015 SWEET IDEA $13.80 2412x 2nd Myer Classic (Flemington)www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com