Auguste Rodin favourite on Wednesday

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Auguste Roden favourite for the Prince of Wales Stakes

That class horse Auguste Rodin is the favourite for the Prince of Wales Stakes as he usually is at Royal Ascot. His record is 7 wins from 12 starts. Five of those wins were at G1 level and that includes last year’s Epsom Derby and a G1 at Santa Anita in the US. Auguste Roden was beaten by WHITE BIRCH by three lengths at The Curragh and is expected to go one better with that run under his belt. White Birch is again his main rival. He is going for four wins on end.

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Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot G1 1m2f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Mostahdaf 12/1 1014 Fourth Meydan

2020 Lord North 5/1 121X1 1st G3 Haydock

2019 Crystal Ocean 3/1 22X11 1st G3 Newbury

2018 Poets Word 11/2 262X1 1st G3 Sandown

2017 Highland Reel 9/4 127X1 1st G1 Epsom

2016 My Dream Boat 16/1 11X15 5th G1 Chantilly

2015 Free Edge 5/2F 1213X 3rd G1 Ascot

2014 The Fugue 11/2 21X11 1st G1 Curragh

2013 Al Kazeem 11/4 21X11 1st G1 Curragh

2012 So You Think 4/5F 264X1 1st G1 Curragh

2011 Rewilding 17/2 3161X 1st Meydan Mey

2010 Byword 5/2F 4X112 2nd G1 Longchamp

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The Ruakaka Backup System

The Ruakaka Backup System

Here is a system which is worth noting for this Saturday. The Ruakaka backup system. Any horse which raced at Ruakaka then runs again the following Saturday is noted and backed. Ruakaka is a sandy track which does not get puggy like other tracks therefore horses do not have a gut buster there. The two Saturday meetings in the North Island on Saturday are Te Rapa and Trentham so there may be some horses which are worth backing at both meetings.

The Lisa Latta Maiden during winter system 

I thought about this one prior to Saturday’s meeting at Otaki but she had three horses in the maiden races and one of them won at 30/1. This could mean that the others are due. Wait and see.

The Close up Unplaced Horse System

Back a horse who finished out of the first three last time out and was less than two lengths from the winner. It’s last race must have been not more than fourteen days ago.

The 4kg Claimer System

When a 4kg apprentice claimer wins any race, take note of the trainer that he or she rode for because this trainer/jockey combination will often win again at short notice. Taylor Melvin rode her first winner for Walker/Bergerson 25/5 and could do so again at short notice.

The Greyhound Winner System

Back a greyhound who is a last race winner, has won at least three races, and has a 20%+ strike-rate. It should have preferably won at the track.

The Greyhound form System

Back a greyhound with any of the following forms: 22, 32, 23, 33, 24, 42 and it has a 20%+ strike rate.

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Wanganui-Justaskme picked

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Justaskme ready to strike at Wanganui

JUSTASKME is showing signs of a return to form after finishing within three lengths of the winner in the Rangitikei Cup two weeks ago. He was conceding the winner Islington Lass 6kg that day and back to a weight for age race he will be competitive. BRADMAN is his biggest danger after winning on a heavy 10 track at Trentham last week. Bradman has no form at 1600m but I am not worried about that because if he has the stamina to win at Trentham on a heavy 10 then 1600m will hold no fears for him at Wanganui. BELARDO BOY is the other horse I like. He ran third to Pentura in the Manawatu Challenge Stakes at WFA in December, this will be his second run back so whether he is ready for it is another question. TURN THE ACE has won most of his races at Te Rapa. He carried 59kg when running third there two weeks ago and just like Justaskme was conceding the winner a bit of weight.

AGC Training Stakes at Wanganui 1600m WFA (listed)

YEAR FORM WINNER LAST RACE

2023 5×921 JUSTASKME Won Rangitikei Cup

2022 7622 AMUSEZ MOI Second OHCP Trentham 

2021 3362 SUPREME HEIGHTS Second Rotorua Stakes WFA 

2020 Race not held

2019 4443 DOLCETTO 3rd Rangitikei Gold Cup 

2018 3021 TOMELLIA 1st Rotorua Stakes 

2017 4633 DUFFERS CREEK 3rd 1400m Trentham 

2016 54×68 TAURUS 8th OHCP Te Rapa 

2015 8310 JULINSKY PRINCE unpl Easter Hcp Ellerslie 

2014 0x045 I AM SAM 6th Rangitikei Gold Cup 

2013 6033 INNOVATION 3rd Rangitikei Gold Cup 

2012 3121 ZENNISTA 1st Rangitikei Gold Cup 

2011 6272 BRAGATO 2nd OHCP Trentham

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Carpe Diem Picked at Trentham

CARPE DIEM won at last year’s Trentham meeting and do so again. He ran third last week at 1400m and 1600m will suit him better. He has a good record when backing up so he is the one. MANOLO is one for odds.

Lincoln Star hard to beat again

LINCOLN STAR is going to be tough to beat again at Trentham after his win on the same course and distance last weekend. The Lisa Latta trained nine year old has won twice in heavy going and there is no reason why he cannot win again. He is the anchor.

Hot Shockolate picked in Trentham Sprint Feature 

HOT SHOCKOLATE has the heavy track stats to win the Autumn Sprint Final at Trentham on Saturday. All of her form has been in heavy going and she is likely to get that on Saturday. Another stat in her favour is that she has raced at Trentham four times for three places. She will be fit after two runs back from a layoff. REIGN IT IN has a similar form line to the selection. He too is having his third run from a layoff. He was slow away last Saturday. Reign it in is another mudlark. AMEND will be the favourite or close to it after his last race win at New Plymouth. PAPA SURF ran third to Amend at New Plymouth while AMINOSIA and IVY DAZZLER are two others to consider.

Thumper picked in the last at Trentham

THUMPER must be ready to show something now after two runs back fro a spell. His only win was in heavy going and he has no other form. He finished well back at New Plymouth 11/5 but watch for improvement. SOTIRO and ANDIT HURTS are two light weights to watch. Both have 3kg off. MONOSA has 4kg off so is another one to watch in heavy going. All of her form has been in heavy going.

Autumn Sprint Final at Trentham 1200m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Prioress $9.50 3322 2^nd R65 Rotorua

2022 Durham Lad $13.60 260×5 Fifth R65 Wanganui

2021 Magic Incanto $38.20 1940x Unplaced Awapuni

2020 No race

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Sapphire Seas picked in the Middleton Stakes at York

Sapphire Seas picked in the Middleton Stakes at York

SAPPHIRE SEAS is my pick to win the MIddleton Stakes at York on Thursday. The Appleby trained mare has clearly the best form line of the race and has shown that she is capable of winning this. She is also unbeaten at York. William Buick rides her. 4/1 seems very generous odds for her when you consider that the first two favourites Free Wind and Bluestocking do not have any wins in their exposed form line.

Middleton Fillies Stakes at York (G2) 1m2f

Thursday

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Free Wind 6/5f 2111x Won G2 Haydock

2022 Lilac Road 15/2 912X5 Fifth G2 Newmarket

2021 Queen Power 6/4f 343X2 Second G2 Newmarket

2020 No race

2019 Lah Di Dah 1/3f 1123X Third G1 Ascot

2018 Coronet 2/1f 4253X Third G1 Ascot

2017 Blond Me Information unavailable

2016 Beautiful Romance 5/1 6253X Third G1 Ascot

2015 Secret Gester Information unavailable

2014 Ambivalent 9/2 1923X Third Meydan Mey

2013 Dalkala 2/1f 315X4 Fourth G2 Longchamp

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Grand Providence hard to beat in the Chester Cup

Grand Providence hard to beat in the Chester Cup

GRAND PROVIDENCE will be hard to roll in the CHester Cup if his form line is anything to go by. He has finished out of the money just once in seven starts. This season he has raced just once and that was when finishing third when beaten favourite at Newbury three weeks ago. It may be a concern how he will back up from that. His record suggests he will because he has had five races which were 21 days or less after  the previous race for a 32210 form line.

AZTEC EMPIRE is the current favourite at 5/1. He was the beaten favourite at both of his last two races. He has not won on turf but has finished placed against handy fields and a repeat of those efforts will see him go close to winning. He is having his first run for the season but has a good record of coming off breaks and running well.

Chester Cup winners 2m2f

(Friday)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM ODDS LAST RACE

2023 Metier P8P2 5/1 Second C2 Musselburgh

2022 Cleveland 551X5 6/1 Fifth listed race Naas

2021 Falcon Eight 4534X 15/2 Fourth G3 The Curragh

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 MAKING MIRACLES 0351 16/1 1st C2 Hcp Ripon

2018 MAGIC CIRCLE 7150 8/1 13th Newmarket October

2017 MONTALY 3200 16/1 15th C2 Hcp Doncaster

2016 NO HERETIC 6563 11/1 3rd C4 Novice Newbury

2015 TRIP TO PARIS 4411 10/1 1st C2 Hcp Ripon

2014 SUEGIOO 2523 10/1 3rd C2 Hcp Ripon

2013 ADDRESS UNKNOWN 2130 12/1 Unpl Haydock

2012 IKE DE EKE 2110 10/1 Unpl Sandown HUrdle

2011 OVERTURN 2573 11/2 3rd Hurdle Ayr

2010 MAM LOOK 1400 7/1F Unpl Aintree Hurdle

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Aviatress picked to win first up at Morphettville

Aviatress picked to win first up at Morphettville

 AVIATRESS (race 1 Morphettville) has a form line of 114x She raced in the Red Roses at Flemington 9/11/23 last time out. That being her only defeat. This race is an R68 event. She is unbeaten in non-stakes races. AVIATRESS is also unbeaten at Morphettville.

The Breeders Stakes is normally won by the favourite. Khadme won on debut at Sandown but whether he is good enough to win this is another matter but it is worth noting that debutante 2YO winners often win again at this time of the year.

SECOND TO NUN has a change of rider in race 9 at Morphettville. Jamie Kah is aboard her. She has a fair strike-rate and is nicely-weighted.

Jimmysstar best pick at Rosehill (race 8)

JIMMYSSTAR finished out of the first three for the first time at Newcastle 8/3. That was a Group 3 race and now back to an ordinary handicap in race 8 at Rosehill. This is a race which is winnable for him. He is unbeaten at 1600m. This will be his first race at Rosehill.

SEASCAPE won on debut at Gosford and could make it two from two in race 1 at Rosehill. She won by 4 lengths that day. PISCES is the only race winner engaged. James Cummings trains him.

New York Hurricane drops in weight at Caulfield

NEW YORK HURRICANE finished second at Bendigo last time out. He was conceding Co Co Sun 6kg that day. Co Co Sun is my tip for the G1 at Morphettville. He carried 61kg at Bendigo and drops to 57kg this time. He also carried 61kg when finishing second two starts back.

CHIHULY won 17/4 with 61kg and drops to 57kg. He has won twice at 2000m but needs a reasonable track.

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The Trainer Form System

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The Trainer Form System

Have you noticed how some trainers, train a winner one day and then some other horse from their stable wins the very next day. There was a meeting at Woodville 12/4 and a few trainers who won races there have horses at Otaki the following day. So here they are:

Benner/Wynard

Race 5-Pride of Aspen

Race 6-Titled

John Bary

Race 4-Sequoia Star

Race 8-Psyclone

Lisa Latta

Race 1-Coney Island, Stanmore and Platinum Cruzer

Race 3-Platinum Designs

Race 4-Chikira Lass, Prioress,  and Lincoln Falls

Race 7-Lincoln’s Cruz

Race 8-Jestin Case and Platinum Sixty Six

Pride of Aspen appears to be the best bet of this lot. She has won twice in heavy going and will be fit after her first up run 1/4. Prior to that she raced at WFA in December.

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Sydney Cup-Chairmans is the best guide

Sydney Cup is wide open

The Sydney Cup is a wide open contest and from what I have seen of the entrants I am inclined to go for those horses that raced last Saturday. Loft, Stockman, Circle of Fire, and So Dazzling are in this category and the winner could come from within this four. They raced in the Chairman’s Stakes in heavy going last Saturday so don’t be surprized if there are form reversals among them. It should be noted that eight recent Sydney Cup winners raced in the Chairman’s Stakes prior to winning the Sydney Cup and only The Offer won the lead up race. Circle of Fire will be ridden by British jockey Andrea Atzeni. The Roy Higgins Stakes at Flemington could provide some clues for the Sydney Cup. Major Beel, who ran fourth in that race is a likely improver. He won last year’s Australian Derby. Athabascan, who finished 4th in the Tancred Stakes is another improver, Tyler Schiller rides him.

Sydney Cup at Randwick 3200m (G1)

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE

2023 EXPLOSIVE JACK 10^th Tancred Stakes 

2022 KNIGHTS ORDER Second Chairman’s Handicap

2021 SELINO 4th Chairman’s Handicap

2020 ETAH JAMES 4th Auckland Cup

2019 SHRAAOH 2nd Chairman’s Handicap

2018 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN 3rd Tancred Stakes (2400m)

2017 POLARIZATION Unplaced Doncaster (UK) September

2016 GALLANTE 3rd Manion Cup (2400m)

2015 GRAND MARSHAL 3rd Chairmans (2600m)

2014 THE OFFER Won Chairmans (2600m)

2013 MOURAYAN 4th Chairmans (2600m)

2012 NIVOT 4th BMW (Tancred Stakes) (2400m)

2011 STAND TO GAIN 10th Chairmans (2600m)

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Who are the value bets at Ellerslie?

Who are the value bets at Ellerslie?

I have looked at the favourites for Ellerslie on Wednesday to see if there are any which are worth backing; here are my thoughts:

Race 1-Villa Bellamiro

This is a maiden with four previous race starts for three placings. The three placings were on good track so soft going will make her a poor bet. It is the story that a horse may be an even money chance on a good track but a $5 chance with sting out of it. La Parisenne has also had four starts. She has run two placings, one on a good track and one on a slow track. One of her unplaced efforts was in the listed Wanganui Guineas. You can always forgive a horse a bad run at WAnganui as it trips up many a horse.

Race 2-Sweynesday

$2 is a bit on the short side for this horse because there are several promising youngsters in this race. Sweynesday has had one start for one second which was in soft going at Taupo.

Race 3-Sunset Boulevard

Finished second on debut at Taupo when beaten half-a-length. Looks like a promising horse and certainly worth following.

Race 4-You Know

Finished second over 1600m last time at 20/1. He has won just once from 21 starts and is not a percentage I would want when backing a favourite.

Race 5-Espadas

One start for one third but there is one or two to be wary of.

Race 6-Persiflage

This is a last race maiden winner and a narrow one at that; therefore is worth opposing.

Race 7-Cast of Diamonds and Lili

Another maiden. I’m not enthused about either horse.

Favourites for Ellerslie

Race 1-Villa Bellemiro ($1.65)

Race 2-Sweynesday ($2.00)

Race 3-Sunset Boulevard($3.20)

Race 4-You Know ($5.00)

Race 5-Espadas ($2.70)

Race 6-Persiflage ($3.00)

Race 7-Cast of Diamonds and Lili ($4 equal favourites)

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