Swingalong picked for the Duke of York Clipper Stakes at York

Swingalong picked for the Duke of York Clipper Stakes at York

SWINGALONG is my pick for the Clipper Stakes at York on Wednesday. This mare has a good strike-rate away from Group 1 company. She has had five Group 1 starts without a win but has won three of his other six starts. She is unbeaten in G2 races, (1 start for 1 win) and unbeaten at York, (2 starts for 2 wins), therefore she is my selection for this race.

Duke of York Clipper Stakes at York (G2) 6f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Azure Blue 12/1 411×1 Won Newmarket

2022 Highfield Princess 11/2 3521 Won C2 Newcastle

2021 Starman 5/1 1110X Unplaced G1 Ascot

2020 No race due to covid lock down

2019 Invincible Army 7/2jf 299X1 Won listed Doncaster

2018 Harry’s Angel 4/9f 2114X Fourth G1 Ascot

2017 Tasleet 14/1 2182 Second listed Leicester

2016 Magic Memory 5/2f 113X1 Won G3 Newmarket

2015 Glass Office 40/1 5467 7^th G3 Newmarket

2014 Maarek 12/1 10X72 Second listed Naas

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Danielle strong favourite at Lingfield (UK)

Danielle strong favourite at Lingfield (UK)

DANIELLE won a novice at Wetherby by 12 lengths last time out. She was the odds-on favourite which makes this filly a strong chancer here despite the obvious class rise. Five of the last six winners of this race started at a low class track last time out. Rubies are Red was a non-runner in the Cheshire Oaks in favour of this. She is the next best and could push Danielle hard on good going. She was the beaten favourite in heavy going last time. You can always forgive a beaten favourite in heavy going.

Lingfield (UK) Oaks Trial 

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Eternal Hope 9/4 31x Won Chelmsford

2022 Rogue Millenium 15/2 15×1 Fifth Wetherby

2021 Sherbert Lemon 28/1 1×4 forth Wetherby

2020 Miss Yoda Evs 112x 2^nd G3 Newmarket

2019 Anapurna 7/4f 91x Won Lingfield

2018 Perfect Clarity 5/1 1x Won Nottingham

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Illinois picked for the Derby Trial at Lingfield

Illinois picked for the Derby Trial at Lingfield

ILLINOIS will be hard to beat in the Derby Trial at Lingfield on Saturday. This horse has had three races for a 13×3 form line. His most recent run was in heavy going so you can disregard that effort. He was the odds-on beaten favourite in that race too. At his second start he ran in a G1 at Saint Cloud and it takes a good horse to be running in G1 at their second start. Illinois is unbeaten below Group 3 level and this is a listed race. Big danger to Illinois is possibly DEFIANCE, who ran second at listed company at Epsom last time out. He too, has just had the three runs. His only unplaced effort came at G2 level at Newmarket.

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Lingfield (UK) Derby Trial (listed) 1m2f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Military Order Evs 41×1 Won Novice Newbury

2022 United Nations 9/4 17×4 Fourth listed race Epsom

2021 Third Realm 14/1 5×1 Won maiden Nottingham

2020 English King 9/4jf 71x Won Newmarket maiden

2019 Anthony Van Dyke 2/1f 1239x Unplaced G1 Chantilly (Fr)

2018 Knight to Behold 7/1 21x Won Newmarket maiden

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Grand Providence hard to beat in the Chester Cup

Grand Providence hard to beat in the Chester Cup

GRAND PROVIDENCE will be hard to roll in the CHester Cup if his form line is anything to go by. He has finished out of the money just once in seven starts. This season he has raced just once and that was when finishing third when beaten favourite at Newbury three weeks ago. It may be a concern how he will back up from that. His record suggests he will because he has had five races which were 21 days or less after  the previous race for a 32210 form line.

AZTEC EMPIRE is the current favourite at 5/1. He was the beaten favourite at both of his last two races. He has not won on turf but has finished placed against handy fields and a repeat of those efforts will see him go close to winning. He is having his first run for the season but has a good record of coming off breaks and running well.

Chester Cup winners 2m2f

(Friday)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM ODDS LAST RACE

2023 Metier P8P2 5/1 Second C2 Musselburgh

2022 Cleveland 551X5 6/1 Fifth listed race Naas

2021 Falcon Eight 4534X 15/2 Fourth G3 The Curragh

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 MAKING MIRACLES 0351 16/1 1st C2 Hcp Ripon

2018 MAGIC CIRCLE 7150 8/1 13th Newmarket October

2017 MONTALY 3200 16/1 15th C2 Hcp Doncaster

2016 NO HERETIC 6563 11/1 3rd C4 Novice Newbury

2015 TRIP TO PARIS 4411 10/1 1st C2 Hcp Ripon

2014 SUEGIOO 2523 10/1 3rd C2 Hcp Ripon

2013 ADDRESS UNKNOWN 2130 12/1 Unpl Haydock

2012 IKE DE EKE 2110 10/1 Unpl Sandown HUrdle

2011 OVERTURN 2573 11/2 3rd Hurdle Ayr

2010 MAM LOOK 1400 7/1F Unpl Aintree Hurdle

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Goodwood Stakes at Morphettville

Sky Angel dangerous lightweight in the Goodwood Stakes 

SKY ANGEL has only had six race starts for four wins. Her ponly defeats to date were in the Caulfield Guineas over 1600m and at Bendigo when resuming at Bendigo with 61kg. She won last time out over the same course and distance as she runs over on Saturday. AMELIA’S JEWEL will be tough to beat. She ran second in the Qokka at Perth last time out and is a mare of the highest quality. OSCAR’S FORTUNE is another to watch. He ran third in the Qokka last time and like Sky Angel gets in well at the weights. LEARNING TO FLY, BENEDETTA, and CLIMBING STAR are three others to watch. They ran second, third, and first in the Robert Sangster Stakes last time out.

The Goodwood at Morphettville (G1) 1200m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023

2022 Lombardo 6162 Second Caulfield 

2021 Savatoxl 41X91 1st Morphettville

2020 Trekking 2472 2nd G3 Randwick

2019 Dispatch 51 1st G3 Morphettville

2018 Santa Ana Lane 4163 3rd G3 Morphettville

2017 Vega Magic 9171 1st G3 Ascot WA Aus

2016 Black Heart Bart 2212 2nd G1 Randwick

2015 Flamberge 3230 Unpl G1 Rosehill

2014 Smokin Joey 8036 6th Victoria Hcp Caulfield

2013 Platelet 2521 1st G1 Morphettville

2012 Black Caviar 111X1 1st Sangster Stakes Morphettville

2011 Velocity 1012 2nd G1 Morphettville

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Chrysaor picked for the Gold Coast Guineas

Chrysaor picked for the Gold Coast Guineas

CHRYSAOR has the black type form to take out the Gold Coast Guineas at the Sunshine Coast on Saturday. He has not started since the Gold Coast Magic Millions in January but will have been set for this. CIFFRADO is his biggest danger and these are the two expect to fight out the race. These two have won over a million dollars in stakes and as they say, lass rises to the top at these big meetings.”

(Sunshine Coast) 

Gold Coast Guineas (G3) 3YO 1200m

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 Yellow Brick 1112x 2^nd MM3YO Guineas Gold Coast

2022 Prince of Boom 44X11 Won Gold Coast 3YO

2021 Marboosha 2X142 2nd Randwick

2019 Pennino 432X5 5th 3YO Doomben

2018 Champagne Cuddles 222X 2nd Flight Stakes Randwick

2017 Savanna Amour 7731 1st Armanasco Stakes

2016 Take Down 7X243 3rd Arrowfield Stakes Randwick

2015 Nostradamus 0X866 6th Arrowfield Stakes

2014 Doraki 31X35 5th Royal Sovereign Stakes

2013 Academus X141X 1st West Australian Guineas

2012 Florentina 2230X Unplaced Flight Stakes Randwick

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#goldcoastguineas #goldcoast

Huetor picked for the Hollindale Stakes

Huetor picked for the Hollindale Stakes 

HUETOR is the one to beat in the Hollindale Stakes. This horse ran some good races on last year’s Queensland Winter carnival and without Zaaki to face this year, he can back up his JRA Plate victory with another win here. OSMOSE and KOVALICA could be the dangers here. Osmose was a black type winner two starts back while Kovalica won in top form this time last year and is not to be written off despite his average form.

Hollinsdale Stakes at the Sunshine Coast WFA Group 2 1800m

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 Zaaki 341×2 2^nd All Aged Stakes

2022 Zaaki 1X212 Second Queen Elizabeth Stakes

2021 Zaaki 47X62 2nd JRA Plate

2019 Life Less Ordinary 233X8 8th Doncaster Handicap

2018 Oregons Day 2224 4th Coolmore Legacy Stakes

2017 Itssomewhat 23X11 1st Doncaster Handicap

2016 Leebaz X5610 Unplaced Queen Elizabeth Stakes

2015 Leebaz 6302 2nd JRA Plate Randwick

2014 Streama 6604 4th Queen of the Turf Stakes

2013 Lights of Heaven 0X021 1st Sellwood Stakes Rosehill

2012 Shez Sensational 1311 1st OHCP Tauranga

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#hollindalestakes #goldcoast #zaaki

Hamish Favourite for the Ormonde Stakes

Hamish Favourite for the Ormonde Stakes 

Hamish will be going for his third win in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester on Wednesday (UK time). He is unbeaten at Chester because those are his only appearances there. Hamish has been the favourite at six of his last seven races and the second favourite at the other one. His career record is seventeen starts for ten wins, four seconds, and one third. He has won his last five races on end with the most recent win being at G3 level at Newbury on his season’s reappearance.

Ormonde Stakes at Chester (G3) 1m5f

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS LAST RACE

2023 Hamish 10/11 Second G3 Newbury

2022 Hamish 9/2 7^th listed race Kempton

2021 Japan 13/8F 9th G1 Ascot (October)

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Morando 3/1 1st G3 Newbury

2018 Idaho 8/11F 8th G1 Meydan

2017 Western Hymn 7/2 1st listed race Kempton

2016 Dartmouth evsF 1st G3 CFD

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Chester Vase attracts an open field

Chester Vase attracts an open field

As is always the case, the Chester Vase has attracted an unexposed bunch of youngsters, but despite it being a nightmare for form students the favourite has a good record in the race with all of the last 11 winners being at 8/1 or less and 5 of them were the favourite.

This leads us to take a look at the favourite for this year’s running. It is Grosvenor Square who is currently at evens. This horse has not raced since last October when winning a Group 3 event at Leopardstown. His career record is 131x It has been noted that each of his three races to date were on rain affected going. He has never raced on good going. On the plus side is this: He won in heavy going over 1m1f at his third start. It requires stamina to win in heavy going and I have no doubt that he will get the 1m4f distance.

Hidden Law is a horse who has to be considered. He is from the in-form Charlie Appleby. He has a 21 form line. At least 5 of the last 11 winners of this race were last race maiden winners.  Hidden Law is around 3/1 as is Cadogan Place from the Andrew Balding Yard. This horse is unbeaten after winning on debut. US Army Ranger (2016) and Ruler of the World (2013) were two previous winners of this race who were coming off a debut win. Both were at odds-on.

Chester Vase 3YO (Gp3) 1m 4f 

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Arrest 10/11f 3112X Second G1 Saint Cloud (Fr)

2022 Changingoftheguard 100/30 4521 Won Dundalk maiden

2021 Youth Spirit 7/1 4134 4th Listed race Newmarket

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2018 Young Rascal 100/30 21 1st Maiden Newbury

2017 Venice Beach 5/2F 231 1st Maiden Tipperary

2016 US Army Ranger 4/11F 1 1st Curragh

2015 Hans Holbein 7/4F 421 1st Maiden Leopardstown

2013 Ruler of the World 10/11F 1 1st Maiden Curragh

2012 Mickdaam 8/1 2142X 2nd C2 Newmarket

2011 Treasure Beach 7/2 1123X 3rd Ascot 2YO

2010 Ted Spread 8/1 713X 3rd C2 2YO Newmarket

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#chestervase #chester #ukhorseracing #britishhorseracing 

The Australian Three Year Racing System

The Australian Three Year Racing System

Last week there were a stack of three year old races held around Australia. I normally go for those horses that raced at Group or listed level last time but the problem is, how do you know which level the horse raced at if this info is not given in the form guides?

A more simpler method of operation is this: Focus on the six top rated horses in the race and the top six favourites. 

I think if any horse features on both lists it is worth backing.

Here are the winners of the 3YO races last Saturday.

RACE WINNER RATING ODDS

Adelaide Guineas Pojfect 72 (2) $2.70

STH Aus Derby Coco Sun 80 (6) $4.70

Hawkesbury Guineas Schwarz 88 (1=) $2.40

Queensland Guineas Kintyre 84 (2) $7.80

Examples from 27 April

Bronze Stakes Skybird 87 (2) $7.60

Australasian Oaks Vibrant Sun 80 (4=) $6.00

Chairman’s Stakes Bold Soul 82 (2) $4.50

IRTVobis Platinum GuineasElphinstone 68 (3) $3.20

Here are some examples from 13 May 2023

Denise’s Joy Stakes Red Card 77 (2) $8.90

Cameron Ryan Plate Ocean’s Above 65 (6) $10.50

The Rose Room Sprint Airman 74 (1=) $3.50

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