Semper Magico picked in the Parliamentary Handicap

Semper Magico picked in the Parliamentary Handicap

The Mark Oulaghan trained SEMPER MAGICO is my selection for the Parliamentary Handicap. He raced last Saturday at Otaki where he ran fifth. With that race under his belt and the testing nature of the Trentham track, Semper Magico may have far too much stamina for his rivals. It is worth noting that he has won six races in heavy going.

LIFFEY (race 7) and PINKERTON (race 8) are two other strong chances at Trentham. LIFFEY raced in the listed WFA race at Wanganui while Pinkerton is another Mark Oulaghan trained horse who won last time out. I have seen Oulaghan trained horses win at Trentham previously after having won the time before.

The bolter could be CHER AMI in race 6. She will be racing for the third Saturday in a row and will be improved by those two races.

Parliamentary Handicap at Trentham 2200m

YEAR WINNER No. WEIGHT LAST RACE

2023 ENCHANTED ELLE 4 51.5kg Third Ruakaka

2022 PRINCE LEO 2 57.5kg Won OHCP Trentham

2021 Meeting abandoned

2020 No race due to covid

2019 TRISHA LEA 7 54kg 4th OHCP Hastings

2018 EL LUCHADOR 4 55.5kg 1st Kiwifruit Cup (Tauranga)

2017 Meeting abandoned

2016 REKA 4 56kg Unplaced Te Rapa

2015 BEL SORRISO 8 54kg 2nd Awapuni

2014 SEA EAGLE 5 54kg 9th R75 Hastings

2013 SEA EAGLE 9 53kg 1st R75 Hastings

2012 RISING TIDE 3 55kg 1st Awapuni

2011 BROMPTON 7 54kg 3rd R80 Hastings

2010 STRAPPED FOR CASH 1 59kg 2nd Avondale

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Carpe Diem Picked at Trentham

CARPE DIEM won at last year’s Trentham meeting and do so again. He ran third last week at 1400m and 1600m will suit him better. He has a good record when backing up so he is the one. MANOLO is one for odds.

Lincoln Star hard to beat again

LINCOLN STAR is going to be tough to beat again at Trentham after his win on the same course and distance last weekend. The Lisa Latta trained nine year old has won twice in heavy going and there is no reason why he cannot win again. He is the anchor.

Hot Shockolate picked in Trentham Sprint Feature 

HOT SHOCKOLATE has the heavy track stats to win the Autumn Sprint Final at Trentham on Saturday. All of her form has been in heavy going and she is likely to get that on Saturday. Another stat in her favour is that she has raced at Trentham four times for three places. She will be fit after two runs back from a layoff. REIGN IT IN has a similar form line to the selection. He too is having his third run from a layoff. He was slow away last Saturday. Reign it in is another mudlark. AMEND will be the favourite or close to it after his last race win at New Plymouth. PAPA SURF ran third to Amend at New Plymouth while AMINOSIA and IVY DAZZLER are two others to consider.

Thumper picked in the last at Trentham

THUMPER must be ready to show something now after two runs back fro a spell. His only win was in heavy going and he has no other form. He finished well back at New Plymouth 11/5 but watch for improvement. SOTIRO and ANDIT HURTS are two light weights to watch. Both have 3kg off. MONOSA has 4kg off so is another one to watch in heavy going. All of her form has been in heavy going.

Autumn Sprint Final at Trentham 1200m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2023 Prioress $9.50 3322 2^nd R65 Rotorua

2022 Durham Lad $13.60 260×5 Fifth R65 Wanganui

2021 Magic Incanto $38.20 1940x Unplaced Awapuni

2020 No race

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Trentham Heavy track Betting System

Trentham Heavy track Betting System

The going may be heavy as it usually is at Trentham. Those horses who raced at Trentham last Saturday will be worth following at Trentham again especially those who are known to prefer heavy going. Here is a formula for working those out.

Step 1

Take the total number of times each horse has finished in the first three in heavy going and multiply this figure by 100

Step 2

Note the total number of times each horse has finished in the first three during it’s career.

Step 3

Divide the figure in step 1 by the figure in step 2.

Example:

Carpe Diem at Trentham 27/5/2023

The total number of times he had run in the first three in heavy going is 7.

Multiply this figure by 100 and this equals 700.

Divide 700 by the figure in step 2.

Carpe Diem’s Career record at May 27, 2023 was 48 starts for 4 wins, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds. 

The total number of times he finished in the first three is 8.

The formula is 700 divide by 8 equals 87.5%

From this formula we see that 87.5% of Carpe Diem’s wins and placings were in heavy going.

I also backed Courageous Step in the maiden race. He had a record of three first three placings, all in heavy going so simple a calculator was not needed.

The going at Hawera on Sunday was good and there were several horses who found the going too form so it would not surprize me if some horses backed successfully at Trentham on Saturday.

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Islington Lass picked for Rangitikei Gold Cup

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Islington Lass strongly fancied at Trentham

ISLINGTON LASS was an unlucky second in the Anzac Mile at Otaki that she is expected to be improved enough to take out the Rangitikei Gold Cup at Trentham on Saturday. She was 3 wide, but had cover, then was hampered when making her run and just failed to catch the winner Mr Mojo Risin. That was her first run since December and she will come on leaps and bounds from that. If the rains comes and turns the track heavy then it will being others into contention. One of these is KICK ON who ran third in the race two years ago.  ENRICO is another. HE finished third last week and does not mind a heavy track. He won on the course and distance 6/4. CHANNEL SURFER ran third to Enrico that day. He won’t mind a heavy track either. JUSTASKME and LIGHTNING JACK are two others to consider even though they have to concede weight to their rivals.

Rangitikei Gold Cup (Trentham) 1600m (listed Hcp)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER LAST START

2023 JUSTASKME Third New Plymouth

2022 VERRY FLASH First run this campaign

2021 BELLE PLAISAIR Won R74 Awapuni

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 HINERANGI unplaced Travis Stakes (WFA) Te Rapa

2018 SHE’S POPPY unpl NZ Cup 

2017 LADIES FIRST 1st New Plymouth R75

2016 AIDE DE MEMOIRE 1st Otaki 

2015 DANZA LAD 4th listed Awapuni OHCP 

2014 JULINSKY PRINCE 1st listed OHCP Awapuni 

2013 SASHA unpl Rotorua Stakes 

2012 ZENNISTA 2nd Rotorua Stakes 

2011 DANCING JESS 2nd Travis Stakes 

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He’s a Doozy picked in the Awapuni Gold Cup

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He’s a Doozy picked in the Awapuni Gold Cup

 HE’S A DOOZY is selected to win the Awapuni Gold Cup on Saturday. The Latta trained runner has won 6 races at Trentham and will be hard to beat on that factor. He won last time out on the course 9/3 and had a trial to prepare for this a few days ago. Biggest danger will be SKYMAN, who is the equal top-rated with He’s A Doozy. Skyman hinted at a quick return two weeks ago when he was swamped over 1600m. Prior to that he raced in two G1s. Backing He’s A Doozy and Skyman is the way to go in this.

Awapuni Gold Cup WFA 2000m (G2)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE

2023 BRANDO 1st Japan/BOP Trophy

2022 ZOLA EXPRESS Fifth Cuddles Stakes

2021 BEAUDEN 4th G1 NZ Stakes

2020 No race (covid lockdown)

2019 JACKSSTAR 5th Avondale Cup

2018 OUR ABBADEAN 1st Trentham

2017 SAMPSON unpl Avondale Cup

2016 MAYGROVE 2nd Waverley

2015 IAMISHWARA 6th NZ Stakes

2014 SORIANO 4th NZ Stakes

2013 BETTER THAN EVER unpl NZ Stakes

2012 RIOMORAL unpl NZ Stakes

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Sires produce at Trentham attracts class field

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Velocious the one to beat in the Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes

VELOCIOUS is the one to beat in the Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes at Trentham on Saturday. The Marsh trained filly has swept all before her so far this season taking out the two big juvenile prizes of the season, The Magic Millions and the Sistema Stakes. Only a heavy track will beat Velocious because all of her 4 wins have been on good tracks and her only defeat, a 3rd in the Eclipse Stakes was on a soft track. CAPTURED BY LOVE won’t mind it heavy. She won in heavy going at New Plymouth in February before taking out the Matamata Breeders Stakes ten running third to Velocious in the Sistema Stakes; that being her only defeat. She has never beaten Velocious. An each way bet for value seekers is SAVAGLEE. He finished fourth in the Sistems Stakes. Savaglee has never finished in the first three on good ground but has never finished outside the first three in soft going. This suggests that rain affected going is his thing. ARCHAIC SMILE finished second in the Sistema Stakes. She has a tidy record and has won on soft going. UNBRIDLED JOY is another to watch. She finished 3rd to Captured by Love in the Matamata Breeders Stakes last time and is owned by Te Akau who also have Captured by Love. It should be noted that Te Akau have won five of the last six runnings of this race.

Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes 2YO 1400m Group 1

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE

2023 PIGNAN 3rd Matamata Breeders Stakes (G2)

2022 MAVEN BELLE Third Sistema Stakes (G1)

2021 ON THE BUBBLES 2nd Sistema Stakes Group 1 Ellerslie

2020 No race (covid lockdown)

2019 YOURDEEL 1st Sistema Stakes Group 1, Ellerslie

2018 AVANTAGE 2nd Sistema Stakes Group 1 Ellerslie

2017 MELODY BELLE 1st Magic Millions 2YO

2016 LUNAR ROSSA 1st 2YO Trentham

2015 MARKY MARK 4th Sistema Stakes Group 1 Ellerslie

2014 O’ MARILYN 2nd Sistema Stakes Group 1 Ellerslie

2013 RECITE 1st Matamata Breeders Stakes (G2)

2012 CHOICE BRO 7th Sistema Stakes Group 1 Eller

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Witz End picked for the Wellington Guineas

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Witz End picked in the Wellington Guineas

WITZ END finished a good second to smart galloper December at Taupo 8/3 and I think he is good enough to win this at just his third start. He didn’t get the best of runs at Taupo and he should be suited by the roomier Trentham track. This is a race which has favoured the horses carrying saddle cloth’s 1 and 2. The two times the race was not won by 1 or 2 in the last 9 years it was a filly that won the race. Tokyo Tycoon has struggled to recapture his two year old form. He drops from 2100m in the Avondale Guineas to 1400m but that won’t worry him. Lantern Way last raced in the 2000 Guineas and won’t mind a wet track. He is a good horse.There are some good fillies entered in this race. Moet Down and Irish Legacy finished second and third to Certainly at Ellerslie last time out. They both have had limited experience and this is their black type debut. 

Wellington Guineas at Trentham (G3) 1400m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE RG No

2023 COGNITO 6th 2000 Guineas 70 1

2022 SHAMUS 1st 3YO Awapuni 70 2

2021 NEED I SAY MORE 1st Ellerslie 89 1

2020 GOLD BRACELET 1st 3YO Otaki 68 9

2019 EMILY MARGARET 1st 3YOF Listed Wingatui 75 12

2018 SCOTT BASE 4th Avondale Guineas (beaten favourite) 90 1

2017 SARACHINO 8th G3 OHCP Ellerslie (beaten favourite) 92 1

2016 THE JUSTICE LEAGUE 2nd 3YO Matamata (beaten favourite) 74 2

2015 VESPA 2nd 3YO Otaki (beaten favourite) 79 2

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Still Bangon on target for the NZ Oaks

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Still Bangon on target for the NZ Oaks

STILL BANGON is my selection for the New Zealand. The Stephen Autridge trained filly has had a perfect prep for this. She finished a good second in the G2 Royal Stakes on New Year’s Day then  a month later finished unplaced in the David and Karen Ellis Classic. It appears that the combination of a good track and the month between runs may have found her short of stamina. Next time out she ran a slashing third in the Sunline Stakes at Ellerslie. A soft track is likely at Trentham which will suit her fine. She has won two races in soft going and has even been placed in heavy going. Still Bangon is unbeaten at Trentham. PULCHRTUDINOUS, QALI AL FARRASHA, LIVID SKY, and BOZO are three that are expected to be thereabouts. Pulchrtudinous won the Lowland Stakes quite impressively at just her sixth race start. That was also her first race past a mile so so she could turn out to be better than people realise. Qali Al Farrasha has run out of the money just once and was a narrow second in the Sunline Stakes. Livid Sky is a stable mate of Still Bangon and has followed an identical route to the Oaks. She finished 3rd in the Royals Stakes. Bozo raced last week. She has never run out of the money on a slow or heavy track so she will add interest to a wide open race.

New Zealand Oaks at Trentham 2400m 3YOF (G1)

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM

2023 PENNYWEKA 3rd Lowland Stakes

2022 BELLE EN ROUGE 6th Sunline Stakes 1166

2021 AMARELINA 1st Sunline Vase (Ellerslie) 1211

2020 JENNIFER ECCLES 1st Lowland Stakes 1311

2019 SENTIMENTAL MISS 9th Lowland Stakes 5629

2018 SAVVY COUP 1st Lowland Stakes 2311

2017 BONNEVAL 1st Lowland Stakes p311

2016 FANATIC 4th Lowland Stakes 5774

2015 SAVARIA 1st= Lowland Stakes 1321

2014 MISS MOSSMAN 2nd Lowland Stakes 7152

2013 MORE THAN SACRED 1st Sunline Vase (Ellerslie) 6131

2012 ARTISTIC 1st Sunline Vase (Ellerslie) 4351

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The Underbelly picked in the NZ St Leger

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The Underbelly picked in the NZ St Leger

Winning form is good form and if that is anything to go by then THE UNDER BELLY is the one to beat in the St Leger. He has won his last four races on the trot and is going for five. He won his last race by 4 lengths. The second horse in that race Mark Twain then finished second in the Auckland Cup. That is good form. TESTIFY ME is my second pick. He ran second at Trentham last Saturday and shapes up as though 2600m is no problem. MARY LOUISE, stable mate of The Under Belly has a show. She is the top-rated runner in the race at 91. ORLOV is the other to watch; he beat Testify Me narrowly last SATURDAY. Both he and Testify Me drop from carrying 59kg to 55kg.

New Zealand St Leger (3 & 4YO Set weight) 2600m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE RG NO

2023 ESS VEE AR 4th Nathan’s Memorial 73 8

2022 LEADERBOARD 5th R74 Matamata 76 4

2021 WAISAKE 1st Wellington Cup 88 1

2020 SERGEANT BLAST 1st OHCP 1600m Trentham 90 4

2019 SAMPSON 4th OHCP Trentham 93 1

2018 DAYTONA RED 6th Hastings 68 5

2017 ROCK ON 4th Otaki 3 & 4YO 75 2

2016 JACKSSTAR unpl Otaki 3 & 4YO 64 3

2015 IFFWEDANCE 1st Hastings 72 1

2014 SIR GUS 4th Otaki 3 & 4YO 69 11

2013 SERPENT 1st Spec Maiden Ellerslie 70 8

2012 GUNS AT FIVE 6th OHCP Ellerslie 80 4

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Fashion Icon ready to make a statement

Fashion Icon ready to make a statement

The Desert Gold Stakes is one of those races which is usually won by a good horse; one who turns out to be a major contender for the major staying races for three year old fillies coming up in the next two months. Fashion Icon is one of those horses. She has already shown herself above average having won three of her six starts. It is just a question of how well she stays. Last time out she was beaten half a length by Sudbina, one of her rivals in the Desert Gold Stakes. Grail Seeker is the danger to both horses. She finished third in the G2 Eight Carat Classic last time and is the only horse in the race with a 1, 2, 3 finished at Group or listed level last time. She has scope for more progression having just five starts so far.

Desert Gold Stakes at 1600m 3YOF (G3)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023 MAZZOLINO 5291 Won Pukekohe

2022 LA CRIQUE 1131 Won Ellerslie

2021 FORCE OF WILL 611 1st R65 Tauranga

2020 SHOWBEEL 3138 8th 3YO Awapuni

2019 SECRET ALLURE 2482 2nd G2 Royal Stakes Ellerslie

2018 DIJON BLEU 1122 2nd Eulogy Stakes Awapuni

2017 NICOLETTA 2415 5th G2 Royal Stakes Ellerslie

2016 DUCHESS KATE 1541 1st R65 Ellerslie

2015 PLATINUM WITNESS 9141 1st 1000 Guineas Riccarton

2014 MONZOON 10L1 1st R65 Pukekohe

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