The Weight Plus Form Betting System

The Weight Plus Form System

I had the right idea in handicapping that Country Final race at Caulfield last week. That is to go for the horses with the biggest drops in weight. I should have been more mechanical in my work. 

Here is a system to do that.

Allocate points on the following basis:

(a) 1 point for every kilo drop in weight.

(b) 1 point for every length the horse won at its last race.

Deduct points for lengths beaten. 1 point deducted for every length beaten.

Preference is for horses that have last race no longer than 14 days ago.

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6 Wins Plus Horse Racing Betting System

Here is a simple system for betting on proven horses.

Here are the rules.

1. Note all horses who have won at least six races.

2. Eliminate any horse who has not raced within the previous 15 days.

If there is more than one qualifying horse in the same race…

preference is for the one who ran the best placing last time out.

For example…last race wins preferred over last race seconds, thirds, fourths, etc.

Good luck with the system.

Always bet within your means.

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Taranaki Cup form might be the key form race for Matamata

Taranaki Cup form might be the key form race for Matamata

It is worth noting which horses raced in the Taranaki Cup because the winner of the Kaimai Stakes has come out of that race in the past. The first four in the Taranaki Cup were: Contribute, Hi Yo Sass Bomb, Saint Alice, and Colorado Star.

The other runners were: Dark Destoyer, Dionysus, Mahrajaan, Coruba Jak, Oso Savvy, Masetto, Thunder, Enchanted Elle, and Dubai Diva.

Dark Destroyer, Dionysus, Mahrajaan, and Coruba Jack raced in the Avondale Cup last Saturday and are unlikely to line up here as they are preparing for the Auckland Cup. The first four home in the Taranaki Cup may be worth attention as the three winners below who raced in the Taranaki Cup at their previous start all finished in the first four in that race. Colorado Star will be going for his second win in this race if he starts. 

Kaimai Stakes OPN HCP at Matamata (listed)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM WEIGHT LAST RACE

2023 COLORADO STAR 8441 56.5kg 1st Taranaki Cup

2022 LANGKAWI 9117 53kg 7^th Ashhurst/Pohinga Cup

2021 PAISLEY PARK 9504 53kg 4^th Taranaki Cup

2020 JOE’S LEGACY 4222 53kg 2nd R82 Te Aroha

2019 VIN DE DANCE x90x4 53.5kg 4th Taranaki Cup

2018 SHOW THE WORLD 06×42 53kg 2nd OHCP Te Rapa

2017 VON TUNZELMAN 4212 53kg 2nd OHCP Te Rapa

2016 GUARANTOR 9321 54kg 1st R85 Te Rapa

2015 BENZINI 4401 55kg 1st R85 Wairarapa

2014 PRINCESS KYOTO 0810 53kg Unpl Marton Cup

2013 GUESS WHAT 3232 53kg 2nd R75 Ellerslie

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Patterson stable worth following at Rotorua today

Patterson stable worth noting at Rotorua today

The Taranaki trainer Robbie Patterson is taking three horses to Rotorua today and the trio are worth noting especially since the going has turned up heavy. The horses in question are Mary Louise (race 4), Belladonna Lily (race 6), Bananarahma (race 8). Mary Louise last raced in the Taranaki Cup when she ran fifth. This is a huge drop in grade for her. She handles the heavy going and is unbeaten first up. Belladonna Lily has had three starts for three seconds. She may be a short priced favourite. Bananarahma raced at Trentham last time where she had a vet problem. She may bounce back here.

In race 5 Martell and Paul David may be worth backing. Martell won first up in heavy going then finished out of the money next time. Those are his only two starts to date. Paul David has raced twice in heavy going for two places. He will be ridden by Craig Grylls who rides Belladonna Lily and Bananarahma.

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Llanacord for odds in the Travis Stakes

Llanacord for odds in the Travis Stakes

Llanacord has ability but she does not always show it but she gets her chance for some black type in the Travis Stakes at Te Rapa on Saturday. Last Sunday she finished fifth in heavy going in the Anzac Mile. That was in heavy going which is not her thing and neither is the mile distance. A better track and longer distance will suit her this time. Llanacord won the Lowland Stakes as a three year old but has not won since but her connection’s patience should be rewarded here. The Perfect Pink is another to consider. She finished well back in the  Easter Handicap last Saturday in heavy going. Just like Llanacord The Perfect Pink will appreciate better going and perhaps the extra two furlongs. She has has an excellent prep for this. She is open to further improvement and that is something one cannot say for the majority in this field. Backing Llanacord and The Perfect Pink may be the way to go here. Town Clerk and Aromtic are others to consider. Town Clerk won the Anzac Mile on Sunday. I’m not all that keen on backing a mare under those circumstances. It depends on how she backs up from that slogfest on Sunday.

Puketiro will probably be the red hot favourite for the Cambridge Breeders Stakes. She has won three of her four races. Westwood is a good each way chance. She finished third to Puketiro last time. She would prefer firmer going tat she has struck. Denby Road is one for longer odds. He won on debut then has struggled since. He has only raced six times.

Cambridge Stakes 3YO 1200m (G3)

At Te Rapa

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2022 Bonny Lass 1513 Third 3YO Ellerslie

2021 Babylon Berlin 1221 won 3YO Te Rapa 

2020 No race due to covid lock down

Travis Stakes (G2) OPN F&M 2000m

At Te Rapa

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2022 Two Illicit 3633 Third G1 WFA Te Rapa 

2021 Perina 8043 Third Anzac Mile Awapuni

2020 No race due to covid lock down

Decise Electrical and Control 2YO

At Te Rapa

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER ODDS FORM LAST RACE

2022 Chamario $4.80 3231 Won Maiden 2YO

2021 Turning the Ace $2.80 On debut

2020 No race due to covid lock down

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Hastings horse racing system

Camino Rocoso beating Bully Boy in January’s Greymouth Cup. Bully Boy lines up at Hastings tomorrow.

Hastings horse racing system

Here is a system to work for Hastings for Saturday’s meeting.

Rules

1-Trained at Hastings or Waipukurau

2-Last raced no more than fourteen days ago

Qualifiers are:

Karehana Bay (race 4)

Matt Cain (race 7)

Blue on Black (race 8)

Hastings selections (Saturday)

Race 1-Tighlign

danger-Kickon

Race 2-Canon Hill

Race 3-Whiskey Ned

Race 4-The Mayor

Race 5-Don Parlo

Value-Karehana Bay

Race 6-Dubai Diva

Race 7-Percytheperincanto

danger-Matt Cain

Race 8-Blue on Black

Race 9-Cullinan

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Myers set to clean up at Hawera today

Myers set to clean up at Hawera today

The Kevin Myers team are in form at the moment and are set to clean up at Hawera today. I think they can take all three jumping races on the program with Khafeef, Obrigado, and Interllectus. He has other horses in those races too so here’s hoping I have picked out the right ones.

A jockey angle to follow is to back the Michael McNab and Craig Grylls mounts which are at the shortest odds. McNab and Grylls are the two leading riders in New Zealand.

McNab’s rides are Angel’s Wings (race 5), Stella Splendida (race 6), Trieste (race 8), and Caravella (race 9)

Gryll’s rides are Miss Parvella (race 5), Baronet (race 6), I’m a Ronaldo (race 9)

They may have rides in the other races come race day so log on to to www.tab.co.nz for updates.

Hawera (NZ) races

Race 1-Khafeef

Race 2-Obrigado

Race 3-Interllectus

Race 4-Tellemalie

Race 5-Crunchie Boy

Race 6-Baronet 

Race 7-Kopua

Race 8-Caravello

Race 9-Blue Rata Boldness

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#hawera #egmont

Le Sablier bolter for the Easter Handicap at Pukekohe

Le Sablier bolter for the Easter Handicap at Pukekohe

If the going turns heavy for the Easter Handicap on Saturday at Pukekohe then LE SABLIER may take full advantage. She has won four times in heavy going and has also won twice at the track. She has also won three times at 1600m. WHITE NOISE is the other horse to consider in heavy going. He finished third first up at Pukekohe two weeks ago and will improve with that. He so far has not lived up to his early promise but this is his opportunity to show us how good he is.

Easter Handicap at Pukekohe 1600m G3

PAST WINNERS

YEAR PAST WINNERS FORM LAST RACE

2022 Caroline Reaper 1321 Won R74 Avondale

2021 Demonetization 442X9 9^th OHCP Ellerslie

2020 No race (covid lockdown)

2019 Endless Drama (1) 5042 2nd OHCP Hastings (listed)

2018 Megablast (3) 1948X 8th Livamol Classic (G1)

2017 Seventh Up (15) 47X31 1st OHCP Tauranga

2016 Sound Proposition (19) 3621 1st R85 Ellerslie

2015 Pondorosa Miss (16) 6735 5th Te Aroha Breeders Stakes (G1)

2014 Albany Reunion (12) 1341 1st R85 Ellerslie

2013 Viadana (5) 0762 2nd Japan/BOP Trophy (G2)

2011 Veyron (9) 7111 1st OHCP Te Aroha

Notable stats:

*Megablast & Pondarosa Miss started in a Group 1 race last time

*Endless Drama, Seventh Up, and Pondarosa Miss were on a seven-day backup

*Sound Proposition & Albany Reunion won at Ellerslie last time

*Caroline Reaper, Seventh Up, Sound Proposition, Albany Reunion, and Veyron were last race winners.

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#easterhandicap #pukekoheracing 

To Catch a Thief class horse

To Catch a Thief class horse

TO CATCH A THIEF will be the strong favourite in the Champagne Stakes after his third in the G1 Sires Produce at Awapuni last time. Prior to that he finished fourth in the G1 Sistema Stakes on the course. On that kind of form he just has to win. THERE GOES MY HERO has the best form line and is the hardest for To catch a thief to beat. CHANTILLY ACE finished one place behind To Catch a Thief at Awapuni and has to be respected. She won on soft 6 going two starts back.

Champagne Stakes at Ellerslie 1600m (listed)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2022 Sharp ‘N’ Smart 2 2^nd Ruakaka

2021 Lady Maroal 9X15 5th Sires Produce Awapuni

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Quick THinker 2 2nd Rotorua Maiden

2018 Rubira 54 4th New Plymouth Maiden

2017 Qui Phoenix 11 1st Ellerslie

2016 Astara 241 1st Ellerslie

2015 Brighton 3 3rd Avondale Maiden

2014 Caduceus 1 1st Waverley Maiden

2013 Fast Dragon 7X5 5th  Ellerslie

2012 Swiper the Fox 5051 1st Pukekohe Maiden

2011 Dowager Queen 2013 3rd Sires Produce Awapuni (G1)

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#champagne Stakes #pukekohe #freebettingtips

Habana selected in Easter Handicap at Pukekohe

Bright Glow winning the 1929 Easter Handicap (paperspast-NZ Herald 1 April 1929)

Habana selected in Easter Handicap at Pukekohe

Marroni big danger

HABANA is the find of the season as far as the milers are concerned. He has won 6 of his 11 races and is unbeaten in four starts at Pukekohe. He is certainly the one to beat here but for one thing…

The going. If it is a heavy track then that could trip him up. He won his last two on a slow 5 track so out to a 6 or 7 and he could be in trouble. No such worries for Marroni however, as he has won three times in heavy going. Marroni will be ridden by Opie Bosson who will help him carry his 60kg. WHITE NOISE and BELL OF THE BALL are two others to consider. They finished third and second respectively to Habana at Pukekohe last time. White Noise in particular will really excel in the wet.

Easter Handicap at Pukekohe 1600m G3

PAST WINNERS

YEAR PAST WINNERS FORM LAST RACE

2022 Caroline Reaper 1321 Won R74 Avondale

2021 Demonetization 442X9 9^th OHCP Ellerslie

2020 No race (covid lockdown)

2019 Endless Drama (1) 5042 2nd OHCP Hastings (listed)

2018 Megablast (3) 1948X 8th Livamol Classic (G1)

2017 Seventh Up (15) 47X31 1st OHCP Tauranga

2016 Sound Proposition (19) 3621 1st R85 Ellerslie

2015 Pondorosa Miss (16) 6735 5th Te Aroha Breeders Stakes (G1)

2014 Albany Reunion (12) 1341 1st R85 Ellerslie

2013 Viadana (5) 0762 2nd Japan/BOP Trophy (G2)

2011 Veyron (9) 7111 1st OHCP Te Aroha

Notable stats:

*Megablast & Pondarosa Miss started in a Group 1 race last time

*Endless Drama, Seventh Up, and Pondarosa Miss were on a seven-day backup

*Sound Proposition & Albany Reunion won at Ellerslie last time

*Caroline Reaper, Seventh Up, Sound Proposition, Albany Reunion, and Veyron were last race winners.

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#easterhandicap #pukekoheracing 

Capo Del Impero picked for Gold Cup glory at Riccarton

Limerick, winner of the 1927 Canterbury Gold Cup. Paperspast-9 November 1927

Capo Del Impero picked for Gold Cup glory at Riccarton

CAPO DEL IMPERO, a course and distance winner last time out, is selected to take out the Canterbury Gold Cup at Riccarton on Saturday. He was impressive when beating Elizabeth Rose in the Founders Cup. The 2000m distance will suit him as will the softish going. His stable mate BURGIE won the War Step Stakes at the corresponding meeting. She has improved with every race this season. Burgie is the stablemate of Capo Del Impero. Both are trained by the Andertons. ASATHOUGHT won the Riverton Cup last time but has a poor record at Riccarton. She does like wet ground though and will stay. Asathought’s dam Asavant won the War Step Stakes in 2012. TIMES TICKING, PERFECT SCENARIO, LIGHTNING JACK, and EXCHANGE are other horses to consider. Exchange by the way is another Anderton runner, therefore giving the Wingatui stable a strong three pronged attack.

Canterbury Gold Cup WFA 2000m (G3)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2022 Prise De Fer 6516 Sixth Awapuni Gold Cup

2021 Beauden 1141 1st Awapuni Gold Cup

2020 No race due to covid lockdown

2019 Who Dares Wins 724X1 1st Easter Cup Riccarton

2018 Saint Emilion 5018 8th Awapuni Gold Cup

2017 Tommy Tucker 2121 1st Easter Cup Riccarton

2016 Authentic Paddy 3495 5th Awapuni Gold Cup

2015 Scapolo 1262 2nd Easter Cup Riccarton

2014 Nashville 8153 3rd Awapuni Gold Cup

2013 Shuka 4621 1st Te Aroha Cup

2012 Inferno 7356 4th Awapuni Gold Cup

2011 Inferno 1233 3rd F&M G3 Riccarton

Notable stats:

5 of the last 10 winners last raced in the Awapuni Gold Cup

3 winners finished first or second in the Easter Cup.

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