Allan Sharrock has won the open sprint at Trentham on Captain Cook day three of the last four years. IN the year he did not win it there was no race. He is set to win it again with SHAMUS, a class sprinter. Shamus has had just 10 starts for 6 wins, a second, and a third. You cannot go past a record like that. As were the previous Sharrock runners to win this he will be the favourite. EXPRESS YOURSELF will be the big danger and is a real chance of beating Shamus. She has had 13 starts for5 wins 3 seconds, and 1 third. Her form line is 1112. THe big factor in her favour is that she will carry just 53kg compared to 58.5kg by Shamus.
DCOPPINS@XTRA.CO.NZ NEW TIPS SERVICE PREMIER OHCP 1100m
The Te Akau team have some good chances at the Riccarton all-weather track on Friday. Warren Kennedy will be riding his horses. My selections for Riccarton are:
Race 1-Valorious
Warren Kennedy rides this debutante and when a Te Akau horse is an odds-on favourite on debut it usually wins. The stable also have Sailing Away as a second string. This one will be ridden by Lisa Allpress.
Race 2-Steve Austin
Steve Austin is consistent and likes the all weather. Jethro the danger.
Race 3-Elegant Lady
As consistent as they come. Warren Kennedy rides this for Te Akau.
Race 4-Villa Row
First up. Won a recent trial and will be ready to go first time out.
Race 5-Sorcha
Another Te Akau runner. This one will probably be odds-on. Unbeaten on the all weather.
Race 6-Thats Charming
Warren Kennedy rides this one for Andrew Carston. Hard to beat here.
Race 7-Richard Stomper
Consistent type. Top-rated here.
Race 8-Angels Wings
Another Te Akau runner being ridden by Kennedy. Expected to be the short priced favourite. Forever Babe is unbeaten on the all weather and is the danger.
The going is going to play an important part in Saturday’s Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham on Saturday; a race named the TAB Classic this year. If the going is good then you would have to fancy the chances of PRIS DE FER, HABANA, and DESERT LIGHTNING but if it is heavy then FARAGLIONI and BELARDO BOY are chances. Prise DE Fer, as was the case last year is on a 7-day backup but whether he is as good a horse I doubt it. Habana is a very promising horse having won seven of his fourteen races. This is his biggest test to date. Desert Lightning is another to watch. He was not far off the best G1 horses as a three year old last year and by what he has shown so far this season, this could be his year.
TAB Classic at Trentham 1600m WFA (G1)
Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham 1600m (G1)
PAST WINNERS
YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE
2022 PRIS DE FER 3621 1st Eagle Technology Stakes
2021 TWO ILLICIT 06X13 3rd South Auckland Breeders Stakes
2020 ROCK ON WOOD 37X21 1st OHCP Awapuni
2019 WYNDSPELLE 2402 2nd Awapuni
2018 DANZDANZDANCE 56×13 3rd G1 Livamol Classic
2017 KAWI 3433 3rd G2 Tauranga
2016 AIDE MEMOIRE 26×12 2nd OHCP Tauranga
2015 JULINSKY PRINCE 01×13 3rd G2 Tauranga Stakes
2014 SHUKA 5×542 2nd G1 Livamol Classic
2013 SHUKA 11×14 4th G2 Tauranga Stakes
2012 FINAL TOUCH 1214 4th G2 South AK Breeders Stakes
SWORDS DRAWN will provide each way value in Saturday’s Ballarat Cup. Last Saturday he finished fourth in the Eclipse Stakes at Caulfield. This will be just his third run for the season so he is an early improver. FOXY CLEOPATRA will be the main danger. She has finished out of the first three just once in her career and that was in the G1 Victoria Oaks last year. She has had two starts this season for two seconds, the most recent being in the Cranbourne Cup 25/11
Race 1-Avignon won a recent trial. He has had two starts for no placings but steps up to middle distance for the first time. He ran in heavy going last time so a firm track may see him win. Jonathan Riddell rides him. BLUE RATA BOLDNESS is the biggest danger while MARINSKY has his claims.
Race 2-Brazen Belle ran well against a higher grade at Wanganui 25/11. She will be fit and ready for this and hard to beat.
Race 3-FELLINI is the class horse of the race and should win this but it is a matter of how forward he is.
Race 4-TERRA PRETA finished third on debut a year ago and has not been seen in public since but makes her reappearance in this. Allan Sharrock trains her and she will be ready.
Race 5-HIGHLY LETHAL has had just the one run and that was last season. He finished 2nd in a recent trial so should be ready to strike form first up as should TAKES TIME who finished out of the money in a recent trial.
Race 6-MATETSKI has not raced since August but has won a recent trial. A firm track may be against him. Debutante, I HOPE SO may surprise first up while KAHLUA is an upset chance first up after a layoff.
Race 7-FREEDOM REINS is backing up from Wanganui 2/12 and having LIsa Latta as her trainer I wouldn’t put it past her to take this out.
Race 8-THE UNDERBELLY is worth another chance after finishing down the track on the course and distance 24/11. He has won 3 of his 9 races. MY ZOI is the biggest threat to her.
Race 9-BLUE RATA QUEEN is the best of an ordinary lot but FAMILY AFFAIR has scope for improvement.
FRANCO NORTON is expected to be the one to beat in Saturday’s Geraldine Cup despite a handicap of 40m. He finished second in the Green Mile at Methven on Sunday and will back up for this. Franco Norton is at least 10 points clear in the ratings ahead of the next highest which is FRANCO INDIE. They are 87 and 77 respectively. Franco Norton will start from 30m behind. Franco Indie won at Motukarara two weeks ago and will be right in this. These are the two I would expect to fight out the finish. BUCKSKIN is having his third run back from a spell and will improve on his two runs this season. He raced over a mile at Methven last Sunday and will be suited by the increase in distance.
Here are some systems I have put on my site in the past. The information has not been updated. I suggest you just test them first without putting any money up. I think the best system is the eighty percent system and the second up system.
One start system
Back all horses who have started once for one win. System not applicable to 2-year-old races
One start one place
Back all horses in maiden who have raced once for one second or one third
3 wins in 6
Back all horses who have raced no more than 6 times and have won at least 3 races
One horse a day
At each meeting, back the last race winner which won by the biggest margin. In the event of a tie, preference is for the horse which last raced most recently
Maiden system
In maiden races, back horses with any of the following forms 22, 32, 23, 33
Beaten Favourite System
Back all last race beaten favourites which have finished in the money (1, 2, and 3) in at least 75% of their race starts.
Eighty-percent
Back all horses who have finished in the money in at least 80% of their starts and were unplaced last time out
Course winners
Back all course winners who have raced no more than 6 times
111
Back all horses with form 111 who have won on the course and the distance
SECOND-UP SYSTEM
1-Second up after a spell
2-Last raced within the previous fifteen days
3-20%+ win-rate
THREE-YEAR-OLD SYSTEM
Back any three-year-old that has won on the same course.
OVERDUE
1-Finished within a length of the winner at both of its last two starts.
2-Last raced within the previous fifteen days.
ONE A MEETING SYSTEM
One horse is backed per meeting bases on the following form in their last three starts. Preference for the following forms in the order listed are;
During the month of September back all three year old last race winners in races restricted to three-year-olds only providing that the win was not longer than fourteeen days ago.
2017
DATE HORSE TRACK RESULT
02/09 WATCHMESPIN Caulfield won 15.20 and 3.10
02/09 FORMALITY Randwick won 2.30 and 1.60
09/09 MASCULINO Moonee V won 5.00 and 2.00
23/09 LEATHER ‘N’ LACE Caulfield won 4.20 and 1.70
CONSCRIPT has a terrific record in soft/heavy going that he is the one to beat in the Starlight STakes at Rosehill. Tim Clark rides him. QUICK TEMPO also loves it wet and is on a quick back up. THese are the two to back while Malcovich is also a show.
WILLIAMSBURG will relish the heavy going if the going is that way today. He has won three races in heavy going but has not won on good going, His last five races were on good going. Williamsburg has raced in G1 events this season and is capable of taking this out.
SEIKRID finished a tidy 7th at Riccarton when resuming and that run suggested that this is very winnable for her. She is a smart mare on her day but hasn’t always had the right track conditions for it. With Joe Doyle in the saddle she is going to be a big chance in this. EXCHANGE is capable of winning this first up. He gets 4kg off which will make him very competitive. Many in this race have done their share of racing this season and are best avoided.
melbournecupmethod 