Waisake the favourite for the Wellington Cup

Queen of Song won the 1936 Wellington Cup from Silver Ring. Paperspast-Evening Post, 24 January 1936

Waisake the Wellington Cup favourite

Noble Knight worth backing

Waisake is the Wellington Cup favourite after his slashing run for third in the Trentham Stakes last week. He is a previous winner of the race though he was younger and nine now but that may not stop him. Even so; not many horses aged over seven win the Wellington Cup. Last year’s winner was eight. 

Never Look Back, Noble Heights, Prince Alby, Canheroc, and Ess Vee Ar are worth mentioning.

Never Look Back finished third in the Marton Cup last time and third in the Manawatu Cup two starts back. The heavy going may not have suited him last time. He is by Shocking so is bred to stay. Another horse by Shocking is Ess Vee Ar. He won the NZ St Leger on the course last Autumn and is unbeaten at Trentham. Noble Heights is by Ghibillines. He won two races on end then finished unplaced in the Marton Cup. He finished second last in the Trentham Stakes but is capable of turning that form around. Canheroc and Prince Alby finished first and second in the Marton Cup at Hastings last time. Both have good chances on form shown this season. Prince Alby prefers rain affected going.

Kingfisher Lad and Blackwood Star are long shot chances. Both raced in the Trentham Stakes last Saturday as a lead up to this one.

Wellington Cup at Trentham 3200m G3

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER WT FORM AGE

2023 LEADERBOARD 53kg 7050 8 12th Marton Cup

2022 LINCOLN KING 56kg 6428 7 8th R74 Tauranga

2021 WASAKE 53kg 3121 6 1st R74 Trentham

2020 SOLESEFEI 53kg 3433 7 3rd Marton Cup

2019 GORBACHEV 53kg 5553 5 3rd Stratford Cup

2018 MAGIC CHAI 53kg 5113 5 3rd Dunstan Final Ellerslie

2017 SAVARIA 56.5kg 0555 5 5th Trentham Stakes

2016 MISTER IMPATIENCE 52.5kg 5550 6 12th City of Auckland Cup

2015 MAYGROVE 52kg 1212 4 2nd Marton Cup

2014 GRAPHIC 52kg 1411 5 1st Dunstan Final Ellerslie

2013 BLOOD BROTHA 54kg 4139 7 9th Marton Cup

www.melbouecupmethod.wordpress.com

http://www.facebook.com/winningfactors

Whangehu selected in the Douro Cup at Trentham

Whangehu selected in the Douro Cup at Trentham

Whangehu won over the course and distance last time out 9/12 and despite the break between races he can defy that to win the Douro Cup at Trentham. I think he has been aimed at this race by his connections.. Lisa Allpress will ride him. Our Jumala is another with form at the course and distance. She is usually competitive and is in form. Any rain will not bother her.

Douro Cup at Trentham 1600m 

PAST WINNERS

DATE WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2023    Kelly Coe                        1236   6th Anniversary Handicap

2022    Langkawi                        3991   1st R74 Awapuni

2021 Colorado Star 2X342 2nd R74 Trentham

2020 Original Gangster 7262 2nd R65 Awapuni

2019 Flamingo 9655 5th OHCP Hastings

2018 Piece of Kate 4308 8th Stratford Cup

2017 Sergeant Blast 1623 3rd R75 Trentham

2016 Skyweka 0121 1st R75 Otaki

2015 Fast Learner 5611 1st R75 Ellerslie

2014 Julinsky Prince F138 8th R85 Taupo

Others

2009 Bella Renza 6212 2nd R90 Ellerslie

2008 Marty Boy 4783 3rd R90 Trentham

2007 High Octane 4131 1st OHCP Ellerslie2004 Carlton Bru 8101 1st PQ Trentham

Prise De Fer the one to beat in the Trentham Stakes

Prise De Fer the one to beat in the Trentham Stakes

PRIS DE FER is the one to beat in the Trentham Stakes judging by his effort two starts ago in the Waikato Cup over 2400m. The edge may have been taken off him after that because he ran 7th in the G1 Zabeel Classic over 2100m. He s a class horse and Opie Bosson will get the most out of him. MATSCOT is one for longer odds as he raced in the G1 Captain Cook Stakes last time as did Massolino who is another one of the leading chances.

Trentham Stakes at Trentham 2100m G3

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2022    WAISAKE                          0860   Unpl Marton Cup

2021    OUR HAIL MARY            5311    1st R74 New Plymouth

2020 CAMINO ROCOSO 0101 1st Waikouaiti Cup

2019 CONSENSUS 0006 6th Zabeel Classic G1

2018 VON TUNZELMAN 1657 7th Rich Hill MIle Ellerslie G2

2017 SAMPSON 0145 5th Marton Cup listed

2016 NASHVILLE 4690 11th Marton Cup

2015 PERFECT START 8110 12th City of Auckland Cup

2014 ALPINE HEIGHTS 1420 10th Marton Cup

2013 O’FILLE 4602 2nd Summer Cup (Awapuni)2012 SIX O’CLOCK NEWS 0905 5th Waikato Cup

The Longest Traveller System

The Longest Traveller System

Backing the horse that has travelled the longest distance to the race meeting is a system followed in the UK a bit. In New Zealand I have note those that qualify for selection at Trentham today (16/12/23)

Race 1-There Goes my Hero

Race 2-Dancarina

Race 3-Sumi

Race 4-Giacomo

Race 5-Fierce Flight, Langkawi, and Leaderboard

Race 6-Text Regrets

Race 7-Lady Sass

Race 8-Strange Love

The Trentham System

Backing those horses who are on a seven day back up at Trentham is a system worth noting. Trentham is a testing track and horses need to be fit to win. Here are the horses to note at today’s meeting:

Race 2-Duncan Creek and Sharepower

Race 5-Pep Torque, He No Opilio, and Malfurion

Race 7-Lady Sass

Lady Sass raced in the G1 1000 Guineas in November and then finished 5th last week. Both of those races were run on a good track but I think if you got a slow track she will be more competitive.

The Shortest Priced Last Race Winner System

Backing the shortest priced last race winner at the meeting is a system which is worth noting.

Qualifiers for today are:

Campionessa, race 6, Te Rapa

Sumi, race 3, Trentham

Fifita, race 1, Invercargill

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

Chantilly Ace hard to beat at Trentham

Photo by Anil Sharma on Pexels.com

Chantilly Ace hard to beat at Trentham

CHANTILLY ACE will be hard to roll if she gets a wet track at Trentham for the Eulogy Stakes at Trentham. She is the top-rated in the race and finished 3rd in the Wellington Stakes at Otaki 30/11. She was 6 lengths from the winner last time and has been up a while. PSYCLONE is one for odds if the going is good. She is unbeaten on good going. Her other two starts were on soft going. John Bary trains her.

Eulogy Stakes at Awapuni 12 December 3YOF 1600m

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM ODDS

2022 POLYGON 5th Bonecrusher Stakes 1245 $8.10

2021     BELLE EN ROUGE                       3rd 1000 Guineas                    4133                  $2.50

2020     WHIMSICAL                               1st Te Rapa maiden 41 $5.50

2019 LILIKOI 4th 3YO Awapuni 4X122 $5.20

2018 QUEEN OF DIAMONDS 1st Te Rapa Maiden 271 $2.70

2017 SAVVY COUP 2nd 3YO Trentham 7112 $3.50

2016 VOLPE VELOCE 1st 3YO Tauranga 11X11 $1.40

2015 COLDPLAY 8th Trevor Eagle Memorial 318 $4.10

2014 CHOICE 3rd R65 New PLymouth 2643 $23.00

2013 WHISTLING DIXIE 7th R65 Ellerslie 2X527 $8.80

2012 SORIANO 3rd Levin Turf Classic 2463 $4.80

www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

http://www.facebook.com/winningfactors

Opie Bosson has top rides at Trentham

Opie Bosson has top rides at Trentham

It is worthwhile going over Opie Bosson’s rides at Trentham.

Race 4-Captured by Love

Won on debut at Tauherenikau 12/11. Bosson will ride at 55kg which says a lot about her chances. This horse is trained by Walker/Bergerson

Race 6-Tarzetto

A last race winner at New Plymouth this horse has had just the two starts.

Race 7-Insatiable

Another Te Akau runner. This horse raced twice at Riccarton for two fourths. He has no form at the distance though.

Race 8-Fashion Shoot

Won the mares race at Riccarton but this is a big step up. Has never won at the mile.

Race 9-Nereus

A very promising type with just three previous runs for a 21X3 form line. First start at 1600m but it will suit him.

Best chances appear to be Captured by Love, Tarzetto, and Nereus.

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

http://www.facebook.com/winningfactors

Captured by Love hard to beat at Trentham

Captured by Love hard to beat at Trentham

CAPTURED BY LOVE won on debut at Tauherenikau 12/11 and may just make it two out of two with Opie Bosson in the saddle. Bosson will ride at 55kg which suggests that he considers it a big chance.  This is an open race and is a race you cannot be confident about. POETIC CHAMPION is one of the market leaders; he finished 3rd at a listed company two weeks ago. He may be better left handed this time.

Wakefield Challenge Stakes 1200m (G2)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2022 Impendabelle 1 1st Trentham

2021 No race

2020 Stormy 1 1st Awapuni

2019 Not an Option 1 1st Pukekohe

2018 Aotea Lad Debut

2017 Xpression 3 3rd Otaki

2016 Gift of Power 11 1st Wellesley Stakes

2015 Leading Role 7 7th Otaki

2014 Showboy 24 4th Pukekohe (listed)www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

Shamus V Express Yourself

Shamus V Express Yourself

Allan Sharrock has won the open sprint at Trentham on Captain Cook day three of the last four years. IN the year he did not win it there was no race. He is set to win it again with SHAMUS, a class sprinter. Shamus has had just 10 starts for 6 wins, a second, and a third. You cannot go past a record like that. As were the previous Sharrock runners to win this he will be the favourite. EXPRESS YOURSELF will be the big danger and is a real chance of beating Shamus. She has had 13 starts for5 wins 3 seconds, and 1 third. Her form line is 1112. THe big factor in her favour is that she will carry just 53kg compared to 58.5kg by Shamus.

DCOPPINS@XTRA.CO.NZ NEW TIPS SERVICE PREMIER OHCP 1100m

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER                ODDS FORM   LAST RACE

2022    Shamus                     $2.70   1130X    Unplaced G1 Levin Turf Classic

2021    No race

2020    Justaskme                  $2.40    5611      Won OHCP Wanganui

2019    Tavi Mac                   $1.90    1X115    5th R72 Te Rapa

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

http://www.facebook.com/winningfactors

Habana and Desert Lightning hard to beat at Trentham

Going is key factor in Trentham’s Feature

The going is going to play an important part in Saturday’s Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham on Saturday; a race named the TAB Classic this year. If the going is good then you would have to fancy the chances of PRIS DE FER, HABANA, and DESERT LIGHTNING but if it is heavy then FARAGLIONI and BELARDO BOY are chances. Prise DE Fer, as was the case last year is on a 7-day backup but whether he is as good a horse I doubt it. Habana is a very promising horse having won seven of his fourteen races. This is his biggest test to date. Desert Lightning is another to watch. He was not far off the best G1 horses as a three year old last year and by what he has shown so far this season, this could be his year.

TAB Classic at Trentham 1600m WFA (G1)

Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham 1600m (G1)

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2022 PRIS DE FER 3621 1st Eagle Technology Stakes

2021 TWO ILLICIT 06X13 3rd South Auckland Breeders Stakes

2020 ROCK ON WOOD 37X21 1st OHCP Awapuni

2019 WYNDSPELLE 2402 2nd Awapuni

2018 DANZDANZDANCE 56×13 3rd G1 Livamol Classic

2017 KAWI 3433 3rd G2 Tauranga 

2016 AIDE MEMOIRE 26×12 2nd OHCP Tauranga

2015 JULINSKY PRINCE 01×13 3rd G2 Tauranga Stakes

2014 SHUKA 5×542 2nd G1 Livamol Classic

2013 SHUKA 11×14 4th G2 Tauranga Stakes

2012 FINAL TOUCH 1214 4th G2 South AK Breeders Stakes

2011 MUFHASA 1212 2nd G2 Tauranga Stakes

www.facebook.com/winningfactors

www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

Family Ties one to beat in the NZ Oaks

Family Ties one to beat in the NZ Oaks

FAMILY TIES did not get the best of runs in the Lowland Stakes at Awapuni last time and she is worth another chance in the G1 NZ Oaks especially when you consider that there is rain forecast for Wellington on Saturday. She revelled in the going when winning on a slow 6 track at New Plymouth at her second to last start. I think she looks a good bet with conditions to suit. The Lowlands winner VAL DI SOLDSO and the Sunline Stakes winner SAKURA GIRL are both expected to make their presence felt too but it’s Family Ties with Opie Bosson in the saddle for me.

New Zealand Oaks at Trentham 2400m 3YOF (G1)

YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM

2022 SELF OBSESSION 1^st Sunline Vase 1311

2021 AMARELINA 1st Sunline Vase (Ellerslie) 1211

2020 JENNIFER ECCLES 1st Lowland Stakes 1311

2019 SENTIMENTAL MISS 9th Lowland Stakes 5629

2018 SAVVY COUP 1st Lowland Stakes 2311

2017 BONNEVAL 1st Lowland Stakes p311

2016 FANATIC 4th Lowland Stakes 5774

2015 SAVARIA 1st= Lowland Stakes 1321

2014 MISS MOSSMAN 2nd Lowland Stakes 7152

2013 MORE THAN SACRED 1st Sunline Vase (Ellerslie) 6131

2012 ARTISTIC 1st Sunline Vase (Ellerslie) 4351

http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

http://www.facebook.com/winningfactors