melbournecupmethod

Free horse racing betting systems

February 14, 2023 kiltedkiwinz Leave a comment

Free horse racing betting systems

Many punters follow horse racing systems in order to point them toward horses that have a genuine chance of winning. The idea is to replace bad judgement with good judgement. A punter with bad judgement will back a horse because it is being ridden by a certain rider and for no other reason. Such a punter takes no account of whether the horse is fit, is racing within its grade, can handle the going and distance and so forth.

A system can replace good judgement with bad. A punter with good judgement may be prepared to forgive a horse one bad run if it struck traffic problems during the running but a system may discard such a horse.

A combination of a system + your good judgement may be what is called for.

Here are some systems which have merit and worth following up on but may not provide you with much action.

System one

1. Note horses that finished outside of the first three placings last time

2. Eliminate those that last raced more than 14 days ago

3. Any remaining horse that was among the first three favourites at its last race qualifies as a system bet

System two

Note all last race winners ion each race and back the ones that raced for the most prize money within their last six races.

System three

Note any horse which is racing on a course that it has gained all of its successes at.

System four

Back any horse that won as the favourite last time out providing that it won by 3 lengths or more

System five

Back any horse that has been the favourite in at least half of its career races.

System six

Back a last race beaten favourite providing that it has previously won at today’s course and distance.

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Horse racing system to try

February 2, 2023 kiltedkiwinz Leave a comment

The 10+ System

Here is a simple system for Australian racing but really can be used anywhere. It is for handicaps. The rules are self-explanatory.

Rules

1 Handicaps only. No bets on set weight races, jumps, maidens, and two year old races.

2 Note those horses in handicaps with saddle cloth numbers 10+

3 Eliminate any horse that last raced more than fourteen days ago

4 Eliminate any horse that did not finish within three lengths of the winner last time out

5 Eliminate any horse that does not carry at least 3kg less than at it’s previous race

Horses which qualify for Saturday 4 February 2023 are:

Randwick, race 5, Anagain (10)

Randwick, race 9, San Fabrizio (11), Wineglass Bay (14) and Lovetheinvasion (18)

Sandown, race 8, Riot and Rosie (11)

Sandown, race 9, San Fabrizio (13) and Threeandfourpence (15)

10-system-horse-racing Download

The winner finder system

January 10, 2023 kiltedkiwinz Leave a comment

The winner finder

Backing winners is easier than if you know what you are looking for and are prepared to be patient and wait for a horse to appear which all factors considered has a very good chance of winning.

THE SYSTEM

This system does not select a horse in every race or anything like it but waits until a system horse appears which is approaching form or is in form. The rules are as follows;

RULE ONE

NOTE ALL HORSES WHICH HAVE RACED AT LEAST TWICE WITHIN THE PREVIOUS 42 DAYS.

Only these horses will qualify further therefore eliminate all horses which do not meet this criteria.

RULE TWO

NOTE THOSE HORSES WHICH HAVE RACED WITHIN THE PREVIOUS 14 DAYS.

Eliminate all horses which last raced more than fourteen days ago.

If the day of the race is 15 April then its last race must have been on the 1st April onwards.

RULE THREE

NOTE THE MARGINS BEHIND THE WINNER OF BOTH THE LAST RACE AND THE SECOND TO LAST RACE.

You will use the margins as a yard stick on each horse’s rate of improvement.

Eliminate all horses which have not shown at least 5 lengths improvement in its last two races.

For example if the horse finished one length behind the winner last time out then in its second to last race it must have finished 6 lengths or more behind the winner.

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How to spot improving horses

December 20, 2022 kiltedkiwinz Leave a comment

How to spot improving horses

There are some telltale signs to look for when trying to find improving horses and those that are likely to at least maintain their current level of conditioning.

The two signs I look for are those that have improved from their second to last race to their latest and those horses that are likely to improve on their latest run because it was their first race for at least 28 days.

Here are the winners from Kumara 2022. The third meeting on the West Coast circuit,

Race 1-Shameless Tart (638X8)

Her race at Ashburton on 21/12 was her first run for three months.

Race 2-Tudor Queen (8262)

Finished second at Reefton. Her first race since 1/12 (34 days)

Race 3-First Rock (5X005)

Finished 5th at Timaru last time out 28/12; his first race for two months.

Race 4-Mochatini (76X1)

Won at Greymouth 3/1/22; her first race since the Spring

Race 5-Prince of Doon (5X503)

Finished 3rd at Greymouth; his first race since 2/12 (32 days)

Race 6-Sahara Express (32)

Finished second at Greymouth last time. Previous race at Otaki 17/12

Race 7-Redgum (2127)

Finished 7th in the Miss Scenicland Stakes 3/1/22

Race 8-Camino Rocoso (8882)

Beaten narrowly in the Greymouth Cup. Finished 11 lengths from the winner at Otago on Boxing Day.

Race 9-Kristofferson (0313)

Finished 3rd at Otago on Boxing Day. Won at Ashburton 21/12

Race 10-Saigon Hot Night (0753)

Finished 3rd at Greymouth 3/1/22 and prior to that finished 10 lengths from the winner at Ashburton 21/12. Had a similar form pattern to Camino Rocoso.

Other factors to note

Take note of the value of the race each horse raced in last time. The higher the value the higher the class of race. At Kumara Redgum the winner of race 7 lined up in the Miss Scenicland Stakes at her previous start. That was worth much more than the Kumaraa race she won.

Also at Kumara Kristofferson finished 3rd in a much more valuable race than he was racing in at Kumara.

Photo: Kumara races 2022

Bosson and Te Akau another Boxing Day field Day?

December 18, 2022 kiltedkiwinz Leave a comment

Bosson and Te Akau another Boxing Day field Day?

Opie Bosson has had a good strike rate aboard the Te Akau runners at Ellerslie on Boxing Day in recent years. The public has been quick to latch on to them as they have been strong favourites. Still, the odd one pays good money. Here are the Te Aau/Bosson horses at Ellerslie the last two years.

2021: Dynastic (2nd $1.60), Belle En Rouge (1st $2.20 & $1.10), On the Biubbles (1st $3.00 & $1.40), Festivity (1st $4.10 & $1.70), Prise De Fer (unplaced),

2020: Brando (1st $1.80 & $1.20), Amarelina (1st $2.70 & $1.50), In a Twinkling (3rd $2.20) Bosson also rode other non-Te Akau runners to victory on Boxing Day. 56kg seems to be the minimum weight he rides at but he has a good strike-rate on horses he has ridden at less than 56kg. Watch these. I noted one on New Years Day last year I think it was and it paid around 8/1. Note horses that Bosson rides on debut as they tend to be good horses. One was Bitcoin on Saturday which finished second and the other was Hasstobeawinner which was unplaced. I think the going may have tripped up Hasstobeawinner. http://www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com 

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Some old systems I found

December 11, 2022 kiltedkiwinz Leave a comment

Some old systems I found

Here are some old systems I found on my old laptop. Included are some winners of the system at the time I wrote this all out.

FOURTEEN DAY SYSTEMS

To qualify for these systems, horses must have last raced within the previous fifteen days.

SYSTEM 1

Back any horse that finished no more than half length behind the winner last start.

Bella Renza 14.00, Alpine Delight 2nd, Glamourous Girl 9.20, Fleminton 8.30, Saviour The Moment 4.80, Windarra 4.80, In To Win 10.50, Straittothepoolroom 8.10, Misty Heights 23.30

SYSTEM 2

Back any last start winning favourite.

Maravi 3.10, Outback Girl 13.80,

SYSTEM 3

Second up stars

Back any horse with the following form lines X1, X2, X3, X4

O’Fillie 11.00, Beersheba Knight 6.00, I Robot 5.00, Willy Duggan 4.10, The Harrier 5.80, Sonny Wellington 2.40, Tatiana 4.00, Acapela 5.20, Lifes Like That 10.00, Roxon 24.20,

SYSTEM 4

Back any horse that has been in the money in 70% + of its races.

O’Fillie 11.00, Don’t Dilly Dally 2.90, Mai Guru 2.70, Quintessential 12.70.

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Horse racing betting systems

December 5, 2022 kiltedkiwinz Leave a comment

Horse racing betting systems

The Beaten Favourite System

Rules

1. Beaten favourite last time out

2. Last race not longer than fourteeen days ago

3. 20% win rate

The 2 length system

Rules

1. Finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time out

2. Last race not more than fourteeen days ago

3. Prize money for today’s race not more than it’s last race

The drop in grade system

Rules

1. Last race in a group or listed race

2. Today’s race is not a group or listed race

3. Last race not more than fourteen days ago

Super 2 system

1.Second last start

2. Finished half a length or less from the winner last start

3. 6 starts or less

The promising horse system

Rules

1. Horse has any of the following forms; 12, 22

2. Horse has raced no more than six times.

The quick backup

1. Horse last race within the previous eight days

2. Horse has a 20% win rate

Simple horse racing betting method

Here is a simple method of selecting your horses;

1. Eliminate all those horses who last raced more than fourteen days ago

2. Allocate points to those that remain after the application of rule one.

Last four race starts;

30 points for each win

20 points for each second

10 points for each third

Highest scorer in each race is the selection.

Turn the tables

This one can be used in conjunction with turning the tables. If there are two horses that finished 1st and 2nd in the same race last time and meet again within 14 days then back the one that finished second to turn the tables.

The six start rule

Back a horse that has raced no more than six times if it last raced within the previous fifteen days

Group one form

1. Last race group one (This season’s form)

2. Today’s race not a group or listed race

If there are two or more qualifiers in the same race preference is for the one that last raced more recently.

https://346d4qlm5y77cvc8y3ihntbo0n.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=placebetting

Make money from place betting:

All Weather Angles

December 4, 2022 kiltedkiwinz Leave a comment

All Weather Angles

Riccarton all weather review

Some interesting angles came out of last Friday’s all meeting at Riccarton.

In race 1 there were just five runners. It was won by the top-rated runner The Growler with the second top-rated runner It’s So Easy finishing second and third top-rated runner Light Up finishing third. The trifecta was $72. The quinella was $14 which of course is selecting the first two homes in any order.

Race 2 was won by Mio Sorella who was equal top-rated in this maiden event. Mio o Sorella was the $2.20 favorite.She was ridden by LIsa Allpress who has a knack of winning with favourites. Lisa is one of New Zealand’s leading riders.

Race 3 was won by Bluey’s Chance who was also top-rated. He paid $9

Race 4 was won by Make Believe who was ridden by Lisa Allpress. He was the odds-on favourite in this 6 horse field. This is the third time in a week that LIsa has ridden the winner in a field with 7 or fewer runners. Make Believe was also the top-rated runner. He was my only bet of the day at Riccarton. I got even money on him.

Race 5 was won by a bolter Cockahoop at 33/1. He was on debut. There were six runners on debut at Riccarton on Friday so you would have made a profit by backing them all.

Race 6 was won by The Number One Son who was the second top-rated in the race; he paid $3.60. The top-rated runner Night Raider finished second. The quinella was $4.20.

Race 7 was won by Namibia Miss who was down in the ratings. The equal top-rated Harbourside finished second paying $2.20

Race 8 was won by Rocastano, another favourite ridden by LIsa Allpress. He was the equal top-rated runner.

It would be a good idea to go for the shortest priced runner when there are two or more equal top-rated.

Aegon set to stamp his class at Trentham

November 30, 2022 kiltedkiwinz Leave a comment

Aegon set to stamp his class at Trentham

I tipped out AEGON to win the Captain Cook Stakes last year but he ran disappointingly. I did say that Two Illicit was one of the dangers and she won. Aegon just simply did not recapture his best form at four but as a five year old is coming back to it with a win in the Moonga Stakes at Caulfield and finishing fourth in the G1 Cantala Stakes at Flemington. That form should ensure that he starts at close to odds-on for this. PRISE DE FER is the only danger. He won last week at Te Rapa and is expected to be the second favorite. VERNANME is my third choice. He likes 1600m and is certainly capable in this company.

Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2021 TWO ILLICIT 06X13 3rd South Auckland Breeders Stakes

2020 ROCK ON WOOD 37X21 1st OHCP Awapuni

2019 WYNDSPELLE 2402 2nd Awapuni

2018 DANZDANZDANCE 56×13 3rd G1 Livamol Classic

2017 KAWI 3433 3rd G2 Tauranga

2016 AIDE MEMOIRE 26×12 2nd OHCP Tauranga

2015 JULINSKY PRINCE 01×13 3rd G2 Tauranga Stakes

2014 SHUKA 5×542 2nd G1 Livamol Classic

2013 SHUKA 11×14 4th G2 Tauranga Stakes

2012 FINAL TOUCH 1214 4th G2 South AK Breeders Stakes

2011 MUFHASA 1212 2nd G2 Tauranga Stakes

Here is a system to try for the Captain Cook Stakes. Only horses that finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd at WFA last time out are considered. If there is more than one qualifier, allocate points in the following way;

LAST RACE CLASS LAST RACE FINISH POINTS ALLOCATED

G1 1 9

G1 2 8

G1 3 7

G2 1 6

G2 2 5

G2 3 4

G3 1 3

G3 2 2

G3 3 1

G1=Group one, G2=Group two, and G3=Group three

Recent WFA races in NZ have been;

DATE CLASS RACE

19/11 G2 South Auckland Breeders Stakes (Pukekohe) G2

12/11 G2 Tauranga Stakes (Tauranga) G2

03/11 G3 Balmerino Stakes (Ellerslie) G3

15/10 G3 Rotorua Stakes (Rotorua) G3

08/10 G3 Taranaki Breeders Stakes (Hawera) G3

15/10 G1 Livamol Stakes (Hastings) G1