CHANTILLY ACE will be hard to roll if she gets a wet track at Trentham for the Eulogy Stakes at Trentham. She is the top-rated in the race and finished 3rd in the Wellington Stakes at Otaki 30/11. She was 6 lengths from the winner last time and has been up a while. PSYCLONE is one for odds if the going is good. She is unbeaten on good going. Her other two starts were on soft going. John Bary trains her.
Eulogy Stakes at Awapuni 12 December 3YOF 1600m
YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM ODDS
2022 POLYGON 5th Bonecrusher Stakes 1245 $8.10
2021 BELLE EN ROUGE 3rd 1000 Guineas 4133 $2.50
2020 WHIMSICAL 1st Te Rapa maiden 41 $5.50
2019 LILIKOI 4th 3YO Awapuni 4X122 $5.20
2018 QUEEN OF DIAMONDS 1st Te Rapa Maiden 271 $2.70
Penny Weka one to beat in the Eulogy Stakes at Awapuni
PENNY WEKA, third in the Group 3 Wellington Stakes last time out, is the one to beat if the going is heavy at Awapuni. The Wellington Stakes was run in heavy going and over a mile so there is no problem with her getting the distance. SOPHMAZE is the top-rated runner in the race. She won in listed company at two but has not returned to that form. She would have needed her last run and will be fitter for this. The Eulogy Stakes is a favourites race so it will pay to take note of the first two favourites and maybe put 2 units on the favourite and 1 unit on the second favorite.
This is a favourites race with 8 of the last 10 winners paying less than $6 for a win.
Eulogy Stakes at Awapuni 3YOF 1600m
YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM ODDS
2021 BELLE EN ROUGE 3rd 1000 Guineas 4133 $2.50
2020 WHIMSICAL 1st Te Rapa Maiden 41 $5.50
2019 LILIKOI 4th 3YO Awapuni 4X122 $5.20
2018 QUEEN OF DIAMONDS 1st Te Rapa Maiden 271 $2.70
Starrybeel carried 59kg when winning at Te Aroha two weeks ago and has just 54kg to carry in the Waikato Cup which should see him home here. He has been disappointing at times but maybe this season he has turned a corner. He has raced just twice this season for a 5th and a win. Cheaperthandivorce is carrying 57.5kg, a lot of weight for a mare but this is a poor field compared to other years. Cheaperthandivorce was beaten odds-on favourite in the Counties Cup. A wet track will throw a spanner in the works as neither horse would be fancied. In the rains came then I would go for Bonny Ezra who finished two fourths in his last two races. They were in the Wanganui Cup and the Feilding Cup.
Waikato Cup (Group 3) 2400m 12 December 2020
Past winners
YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM WEIGHT
2020 OCEAN BILLY 7th Counties Cup 2177 54kg
2019 JUSTAMAIZ 1st Counties 1X601 54kg
2018 MONGOLIAN MARSHAL 2nd Counties Cup 1212 53.5kg
2017 FIVE TO MIDNIGHT 2nd Counties Cup 8042 56kg
2016 LIZZIE L’AMOUR 6th Ellerslie 1615 53kg
2015 VAVASOUR 1st Counties Cup 4441 59kg
2014 SURPASS 4th Kensington (Aust) 4084 55.5kg
2013 MORE THAN SACRED 1st Counties 8021 53kg
2012 ANNIE HIGGINS 4th Counties Cup 7314 53kg
Mai Tai selected for Waikato WFA
Mai Tai with Opie Bosson aboard is selected here. Opie has an amazing strike-rate in black type races this season. Mai Tai finished 5th in heavy going at the TAuranga Stakes. That is the only time she has raced in heavy going. The mile should suit her too. Slave to Trace is a big chance providing the going is no worse than dead while Victorem is consistent and likely to hold her own again this field if there is rain about.
Cal Isuku Stakes Gp 2 Fillies & Mares WFA 1600m
YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM AGE
2020 SHOWOFROSES 2nd WFA Pukekohe 52X92 4
2019 THE REAL BEEL Unpl Caulfield 0950 4
2018 BELLE DU NORD 6th Levin Stakes (1200m) 753×8 4
2017 LIZZIE L’AMOUR unplaced Geelong Cup 7600 5
2016 COLD PLAY 1st Ellerslie 50×11 4
2015 STOLEN DANCE 1st Ellerslie 1×211 4
2014 SPORTS ILLUSTRATED 1st Ellerslie 47×21 4
2013 DIADEME 6th WFA Pukekohe 45×46 5
2012 SHEZ SENSATIONAL 1st Ellerslie (WFA) 70.11 5
Stolen Dance is the only winner I had backed of this lot; the winner usually comes from within the first 4 favourites in this race which was the case with all these winners apart from Belle Du Nord. Four and five year olds have the best record in the race with 4YOS winning five of the last six runnings of this race; the last two at double-figure odds.
Brando selected in the Te Rapa Sprint
The Opie Bosson/Jamie Richards combination are going to prove tough in black types this summer and with Brando they have another strong chance. Brando finished third in the TAuranga STakes last time. That was a heavy track and he will be better in slow or dead track. Brando is a smart horse in his own right taking on Group 1 company as a three year old. 5 of the last 9 winners of this race had a 40%+ win-rate going into the race and Brando has a 40% win-rate so he clearly ticks that box as well.
J W Swap Sprint Gp 3 Open Sprint at Te Rapa
YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM WIN-RATE
2020 COVENTINA BAY 2nd listed Sprint Te Rapa 1X452 50%
2019 JULIUS 4th Pukekohe Listed 1100m 123X4 50%
2018 SULTAN OF SWING 2nd OHCP Sprint Tauranga 19xP2 25%
Note; the win-rate is the percentage of wins to starts. Julius had a 50% win-rate, Sir Lovesalot had 4 wins from 10 starts giving him a 40% win-rate. Tomorrowland had 4 wins from 6 starts giving him a win-rate of 66%
There is a FREE horse racing magazine (UK) available on the internet; it is called oncourse profits and you can sign up for a subscription. The monthly magazine has systems in each issue which will be of interest to systems bettors.
Belle En Rouge one to beat in the Eulogy Stakes at Awapuni
Group 1 form has always to be respected, we saw that last week with Dark Destroyer and Marine One winning, both horses I backed. Belle en Rouge is another. She has had five starts for 1 win and 4 places and any horse that has raced in a group 1 within it’s first five starts is generally above average. In the 1000 GUineas Belle en Rouge finished less than half-a-length from the winner The Perfect Pink. She ticks a lot of boxers in this but if the track is good then she may be beatable as she has not raced on a good track. The track is unlikely to be good so it looks all go. Belle En Rouge is trained by Jamie Richards.
Biggest dangers are expected to be Unusual Culture and Just Dance. Unusual Culture finished second in the Wellington Stakes last time and that being her second start, she has scope for improvement. Just Dance ran greenly through at Te Aroha last time and will do better back on a left-handed track. She is also having her third start here.
This is a favourites race with 7 of the last 9 winners paying less than $6 for a win.
Eulogy Stakes at Awapuni 3YOF 1600m
YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM ODDS
2020 WHIMSICAL 1st Te Rapa Maiden 41 $5.50
2019 LILIKOI 4th 3YO Awapuni 4X122 $5.20
2018 QUEEN OF DIAMONDS 1st Te Rapa Maiden 271 $2.70
Key finished who finished second in the Wellington Stakes as favourite looks set to go one better at Awapuni on Saturday. She ticks so many boxes. There are question marks over some of her main rivals as to their ability to run out the distance but that will not worry Key whose second was at 1600m at Otaki. Rain will not worry her either as she seems to be proficient in the wet. This is a form race with Choice winning at $23 in 2014 being the only double figure winner in recent years. It was a slow track that year. Shezacatch, Signora Nero, and Samina Bibi are worth keeping an eye on. Samina Bibi won on debut at Te Rapa last time so her true ability is unknown. Even if she finishes out of a place she will still remain unbeaten when you remove black type form from her form line. The same is said for Shezacatch who is unbeaten in two starts.
Eulogy Stakes at Awapuni 12 December 3YOF 1600m
YEAR WINNER LAST RACE FORM ODDS
2019 LILIKOI 4th 3YO Awapuni 4X122 $5.20
2018 QUEEN OF DIAMONDS 1st Te Rapa Maiden 271 $2.70
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