Waisake the favourite for the Wellington Cup

Queen of Song won the 1936 Wellington Cup from Silver Ring. Paperspast-Evening Post, 24 January 1936

Waisake the Wellington Cup favourite

Noble Knight worth backing

Waisake is the Wellington Cup favourite after his slashing run for third in the Trentham Stakes last week. He is a previous winner of the race though he was younger and nine now but that may not stop him. Even so; not many horses aged over seven win the Wellington Cup. Last year’s winner was eight. 

Never Look Back, Noble Heights, Prince Alby, Canheroc, and Ess Vee Ar are worth mentioning.

Never Look Back finished third in the Marton Cup last time and third in the Manawatu Cup two starts back. The heavy going may not have suited him last time. He is by Shocking so is bred to stay. Another horse by Shocking is Ess Vee Ar. He won the NZ St Leger on the course last Autumn and is unbeaten at Trentham. Noble Heights is by Ghibillines. He won two races on end then finished unplaced in the Marton Cup. He finished second last in the Trentham Stakes but is capable of turning that form around. Canheroc and Prince Alby finished first and second in the Marton Cup at Hastings last time. Both have good chances on form shown this season. Prince Alby prefers rain affected going.

Kingfisher Lad and Blackwood Star are long shot chances. Both raced in the Trentham Stakes last Saturday as a lead up to this one.

Wellington Cup at Trentham 3200m G3

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER WT FORM AGE

2023 LEADERBOARD 53kg 7050 8 12th Marton Cup

2022 LINCOLN KING 56kg 6428 7 8th R74 Tauranga

2021 WASAKE 53kg 3121 6 1st R74 Trentham

2020 SOLESEFEI 53kg 3433 7 3rd Marton Cup

2019 GORBACHEV 53kg 5553 5 3rd Stratford Cup

2018 MAGIC CHAI 53kg 5113 5 3rd Dunstan Final Ellerslie

2017 SAVARIA 56.5kg 0555 5 5th Trentham Stakes

2016 MISTER IMPATIENCE 52.5kg 5550 6 12th City of Auckland Cup

2015 MAYGROVE 52kg 1212 4 2nd Marton Cup

2014 GRAPHIC 52kg 1411 5 1st Dunstan Final Ellerslie

2013 BLOOD BROTHA 54kg 4139 7 9th Marton Cup

www.melbouecupmethod.wordpress.com

http://www.facebook.com/winningfactors

That’s Incranibull Is the Wellington Cup bolter

Wellington Cup at Trentham 3200m G2

Mondarani one to beat

That’s Incranibull danger

He No Opilio chance

The New Zealand Cup winner MONDARANI is the one to beat in the Wellington Cup on Saturday. He has had his preparation with this race in mind. He is set to join previous winners that have completed the NZ Cup/Wellington Cup double. Those that come to mind are Koiro Trelay, Samazaan, and Blood Brotha.

THAT’S INCRANIBULL could be the bolter. He won the Summer Cup at Trentham twelve months ago. His form since has been poor but he has carried some big weights against the lower grade horses but this is a poor field for the Wellington Cup and the lack of class will be in his favor. HE NO OPILIO is the other one I like. He is bred to get the 3200m being by Zed out of a Pentire mare. He finished 3rd last week and like THats Incranibull has been carrying big weights.

All three of these horses are on a seven day backup which will help.

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER WT FORM AGE

2021 WASAKE 53kg 3121 6 1st R74 Trentham

2020 SOLESEIFE 53kg 3433 7 3rd Marton Cup

2019 GORBACHEV 53kg 5553 5 3rd Stratford Cup

2018 MAGIC CHAI 53kg 5113 5 3rd Dunstan Final Ellerslie

2017 SAVARIA 56.5kg 0555 5 5th Trentham Stakes

2016 MISTER IMPATIENCE 52.5kg 5550 6 12th City of Auckland Cup

2015 MAYGROVE 52kg 1212 4 2nd Marton Cup

2014 GRAPHIC 52kg 1411 5 1st Dunstan Final Ellerslie

2013 BLOOD BROTHA 54kg 4139 7 9th Marton Cup

www.melbouecupmethod.wordpress.com

If you would like regular email updates from me then click on the link below;

https://forms.aweber.com/form/30/16216030.htm

Thorndon Mile at Trentham 1600m G1

Coventina Bay the one to beat

COVENTINA BAY is my selection for the Group 1 Thorndon MIle on Saturday. She finished a very good second in the Anniversary Handicap after conceding the winner a lot of weight. She is a smart mare.

TWO ILLICIT is my second selection. She finished 3rd in the Zabeel Classic last time. That was a GRoup 1 race over 2000m. 1600m is her distance though.

PAST WINNERS

2021 MELODY BELLE 0113 3rd Mackinnon Stakes Flemington

2020 THE MITIGATOR 2104 4th OHCP Awapuni

2019 SHADOWS CAST 6701 1st Manawatu Challenge Stakes (WFA)

2018 STOLEN DANCE 6636 6th Zabeel Classic

2017 THEE AULD FLOOZIE 1512 2nd Anniversary Handicap

2016 KAWI 2611 1st Zabeel Classic

2015 PUCCINI 1273 3rd Richhill Mile (Ellerslie)

2014 A TOUCH OF RUBY 1851 1st R85 Pukekohe

2013 HISTORIAN 42×00 14th Rich Hill MIle (Ellerslie)

www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

https://forms.aweber.com/form/30/16216030.htm

Desert Gold Stakes at 1600m 3YOF

Sassy Merlot one to beat

La Crique the danger

SASSY MERLOT finished a good third in the Wellington Guineas against the males that back against the fillies she looks like being very hard to beat. She was beaten by two high class colts two weeks ago and they do not oppose her this time.

LA CRIQUE is the form horse in the race. She has a 1131 form line. 

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER FORM LAST RACE

2021 FORCE OF WILL 611 1st R65 Tauranga

2020 SHOWBEEL 3138 8th 3YO Awapuni

2019 SECRET ALLURE 2482 2nd G2 Royal Stakes Ellerslie

2018 DIJON BLEU 1122 2nd Eulogy Stakes Awapuni

2017 NICOLETTA 2415 5th G2 Royal Stakes Ellerslie

2016 DUCHESS KATE 1541 1st R65 Ellerslie

2015 PLATINUM WITNESS 9141 1st 1000 Guineas Riccarton

2014 MONZOON 10L1 1st R65 Pukekohe

www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com

WAISAKI ONE TO BEAT IN TOMORROW’S WELLINGTON CUP

Waisaki hard to beat in the Cup

The Allan Sharrock trained Waisaki looks the one they all have to beat in Saturday’s Wellington Cup. He was so impressive winning last time on the course and has the best formline of the race. He carried 59kg when winning last time and that drops to 53kg on Saturday. Biggest threats may cme from the five year olds Dr Velocious and Dragon Storm. Dr Velocious finished 4th in the NZ Cup and will stay when others are stopping. Dragon Storm won the NZ Cup last November and NZ Cup winners have such a great record in this race. He has been set for this.

I think those that have won in heavy going are worth noting in staying races because it takes stamina to win at 3200m especially on a testing track like Trentham. Waisaki and Dr Velocious have both won in heavy going.

Value bet of the day looks to be VICTOREM in the Desert Gold Stakes. She won at Trentham last Saturday and you have to respect last race winners on a quick backup at Trentham. She will be at good odds.

Cup at Trentham 3200m G2

PAST WINNERS

YEAR WINNER WT FORM AGE

2020 SOLESEFEI 53kg 3433 7 3rd Marton Cup

2019 GORBACHEV 53kg 5553 5 3rd Stratford Cup

2018 MAGIC CHAI 53kg 5113 5 3rd Dunstan Final Ellerslie

2017 SAVARIA 56.5kg 0555 5 5th Trentham Stakes

2016 MISTER IMPATIENCE 52.5kg 5550 6 12th City of Auckland Cup

2015 MAYGROVE 52kg 1212 4 2nd Marton Cup

2014 GRAPHIC 52kg 1411 5 1st Dunstan Final Ellerslie

2013 BLOOD BROTHA 54kg 4139 7 9th Marton Cup

www.melbouecupmethod.wordpress.com

If you would like regular email updates from me then click on the link below;

https://forms.aweber.com/form/30/16216030.htm

Melody Belle long odds-on

Melody Belle will be red hot favourite for the Thorndon MIle on SAturday. It will be hard to see her get beaten here. If she does, a lot of big punters will get their fingers burned. Rock on Wood may give her a run for her money. He is a group one winner having taken the Captain Cook Stakes in December, Last time he finished 4th in the Zabeel classic.

Thorndon Mile at Trentham 1600m G1

PAST WINNERS

2020 THE MITIGATOR 2104 4th OHCP Awapuni

2019 SHADOWS CAST 6701 1st Manawatu Challenge Stakes (WFA)

2018 STOLEN DANCE 6636 6th Zabeel Classic

2017 THEE AULD FLOOZIE 1512 2nd Anniversary Handicap

2016 KAWI 2611 1st Zabeel Classic

2015 PUCCINI 1273 3rd Richhill Mile (Ellerslie)

2014 A TOUCH OF RUBY 1851 1st R85 Pukekohe

2013 HISTORIAN 42×00 14th Rich Hill MIle (Ellerslie)

www.melbournecupmethod.wordpress.com