Mustang Valley ready to take advantage of wet track
The Baker/Forsman training team have a formidable record in three year old classics and I think they have a great chance of taking out the 1000 Guineas on a wet track with Mustang Valley. She has never finished out of the money on a slow or heavy track. She tends to get back in the field and finishes strongly. Vinnie Colgan rides her. The 1000 Guineas is race 8 at Riccarton.
Kopua is a strong chance in race 4 at Riccarton
Kopua will be hard to roll in race 4 at Riccarton. He ran the fasted sectionals in his race last week and is likely to find any easing of the track to his advantage. Tina Comignahi rides him.
The Good Shepherd value bet in race 5 at Riccarton
The Good Shepherd may have won at Gore last time but you can never rule out a last start winner who is trained in Southland. The Good Shepherd has raced seven times for two wins, two seconds, and one third. That is a fair record for his stage of career. A Bohorun rides him claiming 3kg. He will carry 53.5kg.
Silent Battler surprize package in race 7 at Riccarton
Silent Battler has a terrific record in the wet which will make him hard to beat on a slow or heavy track. He finished a narrow second at Wingatui on Melbourne Cup day. The going was good that day which would have been too firm for him. He is also trained in Soutland (Sophie Price).
Madam De Soir bolter in NZ Cup
Beaudz Well is the one beat in the New Zealand Cup but Madam De Soir is one who could provide a boilover at odds as she has a habit of doing. She ran the fastest final sectionals last SAturday and the wet track will aid her chances. Khafeef is one to watch on a slow track.
Mister Reliable strong chance in race 12 at Riccarton
Mister Reliable races over a middle distance for the first time today and by the way he has been finishing on I think he will find 2000m to his liking. I also think the sting out of the track will suit him better than the firm track he raced on last week.
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James Cummings trained horses today
James Cummings has several horses at Newcastle (Aus) today. They are:
Race 1-Excursion
Making his debut and nothing is known. Watch for the Pat Snowden trained horses on debut. They tend to go well. He has a debutante in Russian Conquest in this race.
Race 8-Kementari, Roheryn, and Craideras.
This is a million dollar race so you would expect Godolphin to have runners in. Cradieras is one for longer odds. He gets in with a light weight, is unbeaten at Newcastle, and handles soft going. Wandabaa is another longshot worth considering as she is on a seven day backup, has raced twice on the course for a win & a place, loves soft/heavy going, and has 5kg less to carry than her last start. Wandabaa is trained by K Lees at Newcastle.
Race 10-Gravina and Kataldi
Gravina is likely to be the favourite because James McDonald is riding him. He never runs a bad race. Katalin won narrowly first up so can she back up that effort. She is unbeaten at Newcastle and has 5kg less to carry than last time.
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