When most of the leading riders are at the major meeting and there are other meetings taking place then the leading riders at the second tier meets often have a field day., A perfect example was at Hastings on New Years Day last year when Jonathan Parkes and Hayden Tinsley won 5 of the 7 races between them while at Waikouiti David Walsh won 3 or 4 on Pitman trained runners. Its something to think about.
TIMY TYLER LOOKS NEXT TIME WINNER
Timy Tyler covered a lot of extra ground at Invercargill on Saturday but was finishing faster than anything else to be within half-a-length from the winner. It had the “next time out winner” tag written all over it., Maybe boxing day at Wingatui will be his go. Once he gets his act together he will win his share.
Big Kahuna was taken on all the way by Crafty Love in his race at the same meeting and fought on for second. Timaru on 28 December would be ideal since he likes Washdyke. He won on debut there September 2013 on a heavy track.
MY THOUGHTS ON THE TRIPLE TRIO
The triple trio when introduced was supposed to be racing’s answer to lotto with big pools and massive dividends but the problem is from a punter’s perspective is that they are virtually impossible to strike barring a miracle. The large divvies only mean that 1000s are putting into the pool but only a few are taking out. People are not going to continue to lose week in and week out chasing that pot of gold that they may never find. The best chance of winning them is at the dogs where there is only 8 runners per race and an approach I suggest is to take two runners in each leg as anchors and the rest of the field to fill the other spot. That is 6 X 6 X 6 = 216 combinations. Percentage betting or combining with others to form a syndicate will reduce the cost. It is worth thinking about.
TIARA CONCERTO LOOKS READY TO WIN FIRST UP
The Graham Richardson trained mare Tiara Concerto looks well placed to win first up in race 5 at Te Rapa today. She won her maiden on Auckland Cup day 5 March and that was a 30K race. She shows a lot of talent and with Noel Harris, her regular rider on-board, she looks an excellent bet.
DELARGOS SECRET LOOKS TOUGEST TO BEAT IN WAIKATO CUP
The four year old Delargos Secret looks well place to win the Waikato Cup tomorrow and there are several reasons why. He is unbeaten in two starts at Te Rapa and has never finished further back than third on a left handed track. Delargos Secret ran well at his last start at Avondale but back to his favoured left handed way of going he will be more competitive. The Fire Inside will likely be the biggest danger as she was beaten fav at Ellerslie last start carrying 59 kg and drops to 53.
At Southland there are some good bets going with the three best being Timy Tyler, The Big Kahuna, and Zeina and what these three all have in common is that they have been out of the money on a Southland track. Others to watch are King Prawn and Valiant.
I don’t particularly like much at Awapuni apart from Civics Rock which will appreciate the easing of the ground there. He actually finished second at the same meeting a year ago.
THREE YEAR OLD SYSTEMS WORTH NOTING
Three year olds which are on the 7 day back up are worth backing. They tend to have quite a good strike rate and there are few qualifiers but the system will have qualifiers coming up in the next few weeks. Also note 3 year olds resuming after a break of 6 weeks or more especially if they have plenty of racing experience, say 6+ starts. Never underestimate the value of racing experience when assessing the chances of the youngsters.
TIMY TYLER LOOKS GOOD BET ON SATURDAY
Timy Tyler looks a good bet on Saturday at Invercargill where he will be having his first start since returning from Riccarton. He has a great record in Southland where he has never finished further back than third. Last season as a three year old Timy Tyler raced against some of the better 3 year olds in listed company. He does not mind it wet either.
Yesterday I scored a good win off Gallant Ruby at Wingatui but Recording seemed to run out of steam in the last.
FOLLOWING THE 2 LENGTH RULE COULD LEAD TO WINNERS
If you are following systems or need one to point you in the right direction then backing horses which finished within 2 lengths of the winner at their last start and gained ground in the stretch could lead you into a few winners. Only a handful of horses will meet this criteria but those that do will likely to give you a good run for your money. Two added rules would be to limit bets to horses which last raced within the previous fifteen days and races at the same distance as their last race.
GALLANT RUBY LOOKS GREAT FIRST UP PROSPECT
Gallant Ruby looks ready to win first up at Wingatui today, she won on debut in the wet in the Autumn and the drizzly weather in Dunedin could be to her favour. Recording looks well place in his race down there as well and he won’t mind too much rain.
MAIDEN WINNERS AT ELLERSLIE SYSTEM
Backing all horses which won a maiden race at Ellerslie is a good system to follow. The most recent winner for the system was Tavy on Saturday. There are so many Ellerslie meets coming up so is well worth following.
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