Wild Bill has to be a real Marton Cup chance with a slowish track. He is a very consistent horse but really needs the sting out of the track which is something he has not had in some of his races this season. At $12 FF that looks real value and I would expect that price to drop if the tracks gets worse.
Maia’s Angel could well provide the upset in the final event at Kumara but could be vulnerable on a really heavy track. She will carry only 51 kilos thanks to an apprentice claim. Maia’s Angel raced twice on the Coast circuit last year for two narrow seconds. Something’s Burning and Tiebreaker are two other good chances at Kumara but it would pay to check out the wet weather stats and pay particular attention to Mike Breslin’s horses.
The mudlark Duffers Creek looks well placed in the Nuggets on Saturday with the track almost certainly heavy. There is heavy rain outside (Friday). Duffers Creek was third in last year’s race and loves the heavy ground, he has 3 kilos off and has never finished further back than third on the Coast. King’s Pal and Capo both look place chances while Noble Warrior will be running in his fifth Nuggets. He finished second behind Titch in his first one.
Duffers Creek will be hard to roll in the Nuggets with the expectation of a wet track. A good track won’t necessarily rule out his chances but meeting Sanazar will if it is Good. Duffers Creek has never been out of the money on the Coast, his West Coast formline is: 111X133X2
Below; Red Ripper returning to scale after winning last year’s Kumara Gold Nuggets Handicap/
Many of the horses racing at Reefton would have found the track too hard and will appreciate the expected wet track at Kumara on Saturday but before I go on to the ones that started, some of those that were scratched are worth a mention. The Mike Breslin trained Miss Norway and Leeds will really appreciate a wet track. Both were scratched yesterday. Leeds has only been out of the money once in wet going as has Miss Norway. Red Thunder, Redeem, and Farce from the Peter McKenzie barn probably need the going really heavy and it is a case of wait and see what the weather does with them.
Tiebreaker finished fourth yesterday with 58kg, a big weight for a mare. I think a wet track & an apprentice claim will be the formula that sees her in the winners circle. Gootago’s run can be ruled out in the same race as Tiebreaker. She lost her chance at the start. David Walsh rode her when she won in July. That’s the only time he has ridden her but whether he will ride her on the circuit, we will see.
Third Time Lucky, Fun Fair, Sheez All Heart, and Midnight Capper would all appreciate the sting out of the track and have had the Reefton run as a prep for their next start.
Two out of three ain’t bad. I back three horses at Reefton for two winners. Overtheriver & Gold Allure, both favourites. I don’t normally like to back at such short odds but I was so confident about their chances yesterday. My loser was Rosheen. I backed her because she qualified under one of my systems but I had reservations about her because she had two hard races within 3 days just after the Christmas period. I thought about backing TIe Breaker but at $2.30 I didn’t think her credentials matched her price and the same could be said for Savannah Somoya thought it was narrowly beaten.
My tips for the Reefton Cup meeting are as follows;
Race 1- Miss Norway
Race 7-Savannagh Somoya
Race 8-Gold Allure
Special Note; Over the River and Gold Allure are unbeaten in two starts on the Coast. I think the track will be a shade too firm for Duffers CReek and the distance too short. Wait till Kumara for him. Madam Courtney has a good chance in race 4 and could form the quinella with Tiebreaker
The Kevin Myers trained Over the River looks the Reefton Cup winner. He is unbeaten on the COast and looks set to go three from three. His stablemate Duffers Creek would have been favoured on a slow track but the Kumara Nuggets on Saturday looks his go. His formline on Coast tracks is 111X133
Gold Allure, also unbeaten on the Coast in two starts is a great chance at Reefton. She has the inform Sam Wynne aboard and is nicely weighted. The only other horse I like is Savanagh Samoya.
Fantamo is in form and looks well placed to win in her race at Omakau today with just 51 1/2 kilos on her back courtesy of an allowance. No other horse interests me.
Floscee’s Gold is great value at $14 in the first race at Wairarapa. I cannot understand why she is paying so much since the short distance will be right up her alley as will any easing of the track and in a 5 horse field, well thats great odds.