Bolter for Te Aroha (Wednesday)

PAUVRE DEMOI BOLTER AT TE AROHA TOMORROW

PAUVRE DEMOI could be the bolter at tommow’s Te Aroha meeting. He is a 3-year-old trained by Mathew Ivil who used to train at Levin (or Otaki) but now trains at Cambridge. When he trained at the Kapiti Coast he won with some long shots in maiden races and I think this one has the right criteria to cause an upset. 2 weeks ago Pauvre Demoi made his debut, also at Te Aroha. That was at 1600 metres in one of those highweight races. Tomorrow he starts in an ordinary maiden and his distance has been increased to 2200 metres. Jonathan Riddell will take the mount tomorrow. The interesting part is how much he is going to pay.

Last Wednesday, I backed those horses on a 7-day backup and snared a $14 winner. I will do the same again and have sorted out four but one is 4th on the emergency list so it may probably only be three. They are;

Race 7-THE POOR MAN’S ZABEEL (5) and CRITICS CHOICE (16)

Race 8-GOOD VIBES (11)

Race 9-MOUNT MUDORYAMA (1)

CAMPOBASSO could well be the saver in race 7. He won on the course and distance 6th June and handles very heavy going.

Last weekend at Timaru and Tretham the feature of the four jumping races held was that all four winners were the top-rated or second top rated though the Wellington hurdles winner was equal 2nd to-rated.   There are two Open handicap jumping races at Te Aroha tomorrow with the two top-rated runners in each being JOEY JONZ (69) and NEK MINNIT (69) in the hurdles race and THE NAME’S BOND (88) and NGATIRA GOLD (76) and KING’S DEEP (75) being the top-three rated in the Steeplechase. In the second hurdles race, FAST CATCH (71) and BAY ROCKER (69) are the top-two rated horses.

With the amount of rain they have had in the northern part of the North Island this meeting must be in jeopardy but if it goes ahead, the track will be very heavy.

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“Winning Form is good form.”

“Winning form is good form” if you know the right one to back.

Well as I said in one of my posts on Friday, “Winning form is good form” but you really need to know the right ones to back and which ones to leave alone. A number of the horses I selected for the weekend I never backed because their odds were too short and some of them won, some lost. I think the biggest surprise was the defeat of Rosewood. I think the race she had 7-days earlier may have taken the edge off her. One noticeable feature was the number of last race winners that won that were course and distance winners their last start and that included one at the harness meeting on Friday night at 25/1. Four last race winners won at Ruakaka on Saturday and all four of them won on the same course and distance at the 30th June meeting.

I was gouing to try a system where you back any wel-supported runner that has won its last two races but back them for a place. The system would not have fared too well on Saturday but Major Tom and Vinnevale were winners for that fit that criteria.

Another approach I was thinking of trying is to go for last race winners ridden by the keading riders. In NZ, the riders to follow are Sam Collett, Chris Johnson, and Matt Cameron. Johnson rode two last race winners on Saturday for one win (Major Tom) and a second while Collett rode last race winner Marbles at 7/1 ($8).

This Saturday’s racing is at Te Rapa and New Plymouth in NZ. On Wednesday it is at Te Aroha and on Thursday, Hastings.

Last Wednesday, I backed horses that were on a 7-day backup and ended up with a good winner at $14.

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SOUTHLAND TRAINED HORSES TO WATCH

Southland trained horses to watch

I have selected a list of Southland trained horses that are worth keeping an eye out for in the coming weeks. THey tend to pay ave the odds because they are underated. Some of these horses will likely start at Oamaru 22nd July

EPIC DREAMER trainer Stephen-Blair Edie

Unplaced at Ashburton after a good run of form.

FINBARR trainer Gay Robinson

Won his 3rd race on end at Ashburton may go on with it.

FLYING SARDINE trainer Kelvin Tyler

Impressive winner at Ashburton. Always capable of winning in the right class.

GALWAY GARRY trainer Kelvin Tyler

3rd at AShburton. Consistent type and may get his chance at Oamaru or Riccarton.

LIL SWISS MISS trainer K Tyler

Won in the bog at Riverton in May. Has struggled since.

LOCHAN NORA trainer Kelvin Tyler

Finished 4th in the Winter Cup trial at AShburton.

IRISH EXCUSE trainer E Winslow

Probably found the top weight of 60kg too much for him at Ashburton. Always capable of surprising

MAKS LEGEND trainer J. Philips

Good second on Friday. No form in heavy going but placed in slow and dead going. Gets his chance to break his maiden duck at Oamaru or at the Riccarton National meeting.

MISS CATHERINE G. Tippet

Appears to be running out of chances. Her race at Timaru on Friday was her 19th but she still ran her usual honest race foe 3rd.

MINUE trainer N & B Blatch

Unplaced at Ashburton 4th July. Won 4 starts back.

OLAF trainer Sally Mackay

Well-supported at Ashburton 4th July but finished out of the money. Worth another chance.

OREPUKE LAD trainer G & M Eade

Disappointing at AShburton after easy win at his previous start. Prefers track not heavy.

RINGBOLT trainer J. Gordon

Unplaced at Timaru last Friday but I suspect that he needs a ereally heavy track and possibly more ground. both placings have been in heavy going.

STELLACANTO trainer Stephen-Blair Edie

Unplaced Ashburton 4th July. Ex-northerner, 3 starts in the South Island.

May have found the track too heavy at Ashburton.

TILLY DUNNAGE trainer Kelvin Tyler

Disappointing in the Ohcp 2100m at Ashburton. All of her wins have been at Riverton.

TIMY TYLER trainer Kelvin Tyler

3rd in the Winter Cup trial at Ashburton. Hasn’t won since 2015

VALENTINA VITTORIA trainer Kelvin Tyler

Unplaced at Ashburton. Raced out of her class in the 3-4 year old race and will be better suited back to an R65 race.

VAN GOGH trainer K & I Taplin

Won well at Timaru and certainly no reas

SANDS OF MALL SELECTED AT NEWMARKET

Darley July Cup at Royal Ascot

Group 1 winners Blue Point and Eqidaar clash but Sands of Mall selected

SANDS OF MALL may well be the one to topple the two last race Group one winners BLUE POINT and EQIDAAR in the Group one Darley July Stakes at Newmarket. England. He has a first class formline of 112 and actually finished 2nd to Eqidaar at Royal Ascot last time out being beaten by half-a-length. Two starts ago at Haydock, Sands of Mall won a Group 2 race and that is the deal clincher for me as a GRoup 2 winner will usually challenge the GRoup one winners for glory. There is no doubt that he certainly does have a task with such a strong field but there is no denying that he has all of the credentials to take the race out. The 3-year-olds have over the older horses is their weight concession which may well swing it in their favour.

In the Betfred Mile Handicap, I like IBRAZ who has a good formline of 311 and has potential while CERTAIN LAD looks the one in the Superlative Stakes for two-year-olds. He has raced three times for two wins and a third and his last race was a Group 2 as is the case this time.

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AUSTRALIAN SELECTIONS

Selections for Australia

The Avenger is nominated for two meetings and he is selected to win whichever option he takes. The same is for Blue Brook who is in two races at the Sunshine Coast.

CAULFIELD

Race 4-THE AVENGER

Race 6-MASCULINO

Race 9-MALAISE

ROSEHILL

Race 1-MASTER ASH

Race 3-ASTERIUS

Race 7-DREAM FORCE

Race 9-THE AVENGER

SUNSHINE COAST

Race 1-BLUE BROOK & SHOGUN SUN

Race 2-SUPER SUAVE

Race 5-BLUE BROOK

Race 7-JETSONIC

Race 9-ENTERPRISE MARCH

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CORROSIVE SELECTED ON DAY TWO AT NEWMARKET

Corrosive selected at Newmarket (UK) on Friday

CORROSIVE looks well worth backing on day two at the Newmarket (UK) July meeting on Friday. He finished out of the money in a class 2 race at Royal Ascot last time out and drops in grade to a C3 for the Saeed Suhail Saeed Handicap, the last race on the card on day two. Prior to his last race Corrosiive won two in a row and as he won his final race on last season has actually won three of his last four starts. The favourite for the race is likely to be COURT OF JUSTICE, a last race maiden winner that looks worth opposing. Corrosive is expected to be second favourite.

In the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes, a Group 2 race for 2-year-olds, MAIN EDITION AND LA PELOSA look to have a class edge on the rest. Both raced at Royal Ascot where Main Edition was victorious while La Pelosa was a close 2nd. It looks like a bit of a coin toss as to which one will win. Main Edition has won three races from three while La Pelosa has had a win and a 2nd from as many starts.

The Bet 365 Handicap (3pm UK time) is between WISSCHIKON and BERINGER. They finished first and second at Royal Ascot and there wasn’t much between them. I think I would be inclined to take Wiss chikon but only if I could get at least odds of 3/1 ($4) on him.

The feature race of the day is the Group one Tattersall’s Falmouth Stakes where the odds on favourite will be ALPHA CENTAURI. He won by 6 lengths at Royal Ascot and is really difficult to oppose. An interesting runner is THREADING, 2nd to Alpha Centauri at Royal Ascot. I backed her in May in a listed race because she is unbeaten at a level below Group three and is on my list of horses to keeop an eye out for but only if she is in her proper class. CLEMMIE ridden by Ryan Moore for Aiden O’Brien may be an each-way hope but only if you are going with the bookies. He was a Group winner as a 2-year-old but his two runs as a 3-year-old has seen him unplaced but if he is going to return to anywhere near his best then this is the race to do it. Aiden O’Brien’s horses twen to win within their first three starts of the season.

Ruakaka & Trentham tomorrow

Ruakaka & Trentham

Aim Smart hard to beat at Ruakaka

AIM SMART (race 5 Ruakaka) is unbeaten in unlisted races and aims to win first-up in one in race 5 at Ruakaka. He won on debut as a 2-year-old then his only other starts were at black-type level which includes a second behind Prom Queen on the course last September. He should really be too classy here. If he is too short as far as odds are concerned then I would not bother with him.

STEVEN JAMES is another horse worth considering. He is in race 7 at Ruakaka. He finished runnerup in his first two starts then started in the Waikato Guineas third time out where he finished 6th. Steven James is one horse that may be heading towards open Handicap racing next season.

“Winning form is good form”

The say that winning form is good form and this could be the formula at both meetings in New Zealand on Saturday. Last race winners do tend to repeat themselves at Ruakaka during the winter time and Trentham is known as a last race winner’s track. Selected are;

RUAKAKA

Race 1-VINEVALE

Going for her hattrick of victories but will be a short priced favourite to complete it.

Race 3-NOT USUAL HEART

Will be odds-on favourite so will pass up this one but imperessive winner last two starts

Race 4-JON WICK

Strong win last start on the track but HAPI ELLA, another last race winner on the track is worth backing too.

Race 6-MAJOR TOM

Going for a hattrick of victories and should get it here.

TRENTHAM

Race 3-THE SHACKLER

Going for a hattrick of victories and barring mishaps may get it though unbearten IFFITEL will give him a fright.

Race 4-RED SIERRA

In outstanding form and thrown in with a light weight courtesy of a 3 kilo claimer (Charlotte O’Beirne)

Race 7-ROSEWOOD

Another going for her hattrick but odds will be short.

Also at Trentham is;

Race 6-TRISHA LEA

Dominating form of late but there must bwe a question of whether she may be training off.

Race 8-TWO THIRTY

True mudlark and is in form

In the Wellington Steeplchase, it should be noted that the top two horses Amanood Lad and Wise Men Say are both at least 10 rating points ahead of the others and that may be the telling factor in this year’s race.

Value bet of the day is ZARTAN (race 6) because he races well on a 7-day back up. I know because I have backed him twice previously when he has won on a 7-day back up. When there is a question mark over the fitness of his rivals, lack of conditioning will not be a problem for Zartan.

 

Timaru today

Timaru today

Well, I was not going to have a bet today at Timaru but have found some I like so I am back in business. My selections are;

Race 5-ADVENT

Finished out of the money at 140m at Riccarton but back to 1200m will be competitive especially with Chris Johnson sticking with her.

Race 6-WHATS UP ALF

Consistent galloper and this looks his race.

Race 7-BRIDGET TOWN

Another one in good form but overdue.

Race 8-DUNDEE FLAG

Two starts for a 3rd and a 4th. I think he will probably enjoy the slightly better track at Timaru.

SHAHEEN HARD TO BEAT AT NEWMARKET

Shaheen hard to beat at Newmarket

Promising galloper SHAHEEN looks well-worth backing on Day one at Newmarket on Thursday. He has raced nine times for four wins. His current formline is 121 and he has raced within the previous fourteen days. He is up in grade so will be at reasonable odds. The big drop in weight should compensate for the class rise. Shaheen runs in the Saeed Suhail Saheed Handicap.

GUISEPPE GARIBALDI is another horse worth backing. Like Shaheen he is in the form of his life and has recentcy in his favour. Ryan Moore will ride him. He is currently the second favourite.

ADVERTISE looks the bet of the day thoug in the July Stakes, a race for two-year-olds. He finished 2nd at Ascot last time out and won at his only other start. Though he may not be paying much more than even money looks worth backing in view of his class edge on the others.

WALK IN THE SUN could be the one to beat in the listed race, the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes later on in the day. He drops back from a Group 3 race to a listed one. He won his first two starts and raced at GRoup 3 level at Royal Ascot. In other words, he has not been beaten at a level lower than Group 3.

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Wellington Steeplechase Saturday

Wellington Steeplechase on Saturday

The Wellington Steeplechase will take place on Saturday. The 5500m event has drawn its usual field and anything can occur in these events. The significant factor seems to be that the top two rated horses AMANOOD LAD and WISE MEN SAY are at least ten rating points ahead of the rest. They both are carrying at least 5 kilos more than the others but I think they will be hard to keep out given the lack of class of the others. Amanood Lad will be ridden by Aaron Kuru and Wise Men Say by Isaac Lupton, two of the best jumping rider’s around. VENERATE has the best form in the race of 21733 but has only won the one race. TOP CHOICE has raced only three times over the big fences for one win and a place, (4th in the other). Lack of experience will be against him.

FIELD

1          1Lx65   AMANOOD LAD trainer Paul Neilson              71kg

2          x1042  WISEMAN SAY trainer R Conners                    70kg

3          x70LL   STAGEHAND    trainer S & E Clotworthy         65kg

4          5379    TIZZA SECRET  trainer Bill Thurlow                 65kg

5          2763    CHOCOLATE FISH trainer Shane Brown          65kg

6          7316    OLD COUNTESS trainer P & J Brosnan            65kg

7          0034    TOP CHOICE    trainer S & E Clotworthy         65kg

8          1733    VENERATE       trainer Harvey Wilson             65kg

9          9968    KING’S KITE     trainer Stephen Beatson         65kg

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A review on the Melbourne Cup