KYLANG ROCK is my selection at Nottingham today. Them 3-year-old has only been beaten at class 3 level or lower once in his career and that was at debut. Tonight he runs in a class 3 race with a nice weight and is the one to beat. He is at 11/4.
The other horse I like is in the last there. TANGO SKY finished 3rd of 11 last time out and looks an improver in an open field. he is at around 5/1
HORSES TO WATCH
Horses that raced at Riccarton on Saturday that will likely improve with better ground.
Probably found 59 kilos too much in the holding ground on Saturday. Has won in heavy ground but has a better record in better ground
Needs the ground no worse than slow. Finished 4th & 6th in his two starts at Riccarton. Form will improve with the weather.
BORN A ROYAL
Saturday’s run was just his 3rd this campaign so has scope for further improvement. Has won in heavy going but worth overlooking his failure in puggy ground on Saturday.
First start in the South Island for Mike McCann when 5th in the Spec Cond Maiden. Will be improved by the outing & a better track.
Not a genuine wet weather horse but still ran okay and as with Amun Ra will likely improve whwen the weather does likewise.
Had his third start in two weeks on Saturday. Carried 59 kilos which was a bit too much in holding ground. Likely to go close to winning if in the right race next time.
PAT IN BRACKETS
Capable on his day. Has no form in heavy going so obviously prefers the ground to not so heavy.
Race 3-OUR BARTY
Race 6-DYNAMIC BID
Race 3-HEZA JOLLY SON
Race 4-WILLY WONKA SOCKS
Race 6-MAKE MINE BRANDY
I normally use the Australian meeting to test out new angles and one I have is that in maiden races you take the horse that has the most recent second placing to its form line. Chekkapen, Our Barty, Ritornio, and Westerport are qualifiers.
7-DAY BACK-UP HORSES NEXT TIME OUT
Horses coming off a 7-day back-up are sometimes nice bets. Here is what I mean coming off a 7-day back-up. Horses that started twice in a week at the Riccarton meeting just completed will be coming off a quick back up. I noticed that at the Taranaki meeting coming up later n this month, some horses who have competed twice at the Riccarton meeting have won there, namely Kalgoorlie Bomber (2012), The Bouncer (2014), and Megablast (2016). What all these horses have in common is that they all won on the last day at Riccarton. I don’t have the other year’s books handy where I could research the results of that year but another horse Gee Oh that ran twice at Riccarton won on the first day and finished 3rd on the last day.
Other horses that had a gap of more than 2 weeks and had run twice in 7 days were successful.
Saturday was a strange meeting at Riccarton with several horses defying the form book. One horse I tossed in was Stormy Habit as he was having his third run in a week. I think that will probably be it for him this campaign. Stormy Habit finished a close second at Hokitika in January on a 5 day back-up. Two other horses who had won on a quick back-up previously won on Saturday. They were Tabard who won on a 2 day backup at Blenheim at his second to last start and Whatwedo who won on a 5-day back–up at his second to last start. I actually backed Whatwedo in earlty July when he won at 25/1. I should have stuck with him.
Current fitness was a factor in the holding track because Stormy Habit and The Gordonian, both winners on Saturday were having their 3rd race in two weeks while Doubtless Princess who was 3rd was also having her 3rd run in 2 weeks.
Sakhee’s Star a horse I backed on Saturday coming off a 3-day back-up ran a shocker. She never got into it.
AUSTRALIAN SELECTIONS FOR TODAY
SHARPAMAL (race 5)
NEPTUNE PALACE (race 7)
TWO EASY BRO (race 8)
VACLUSE BAY (race 2)
WASHINGTON HEIGHTS (race 7)
THIRD TIME LUCKY & HIGHBROOK AT RICCARTON
I remember a system where I would back horses on a 7-day back-up if their last three form figures add up to no more than 5 and Third Time Lucky and Highbrook both qualify. Third Time Lucky has form 131 while Highbrook has form 121 It is not often that you would come across horses that meet this criteria but these two have appeared on the same day. This system had nothing to do with the research on 7-day back-up horses I was talking about yesterday, That was more to do with a factor called race spacing which I used many years ago.
Three horses running in the UK tomorrow morning (NZ) time which will be competitive are PRANCEBOOTHON (race 1 Brighton) , LEOPARD (race 3 Musselburgh), and STALKING MOON (race 4 Musselburgh)
Pranceboothon won on debut on the Brighton course then finished out of the money at Wolverhampton. Back to Brighton he should be too good.
Leopard has not won in his 5 starts but showed improvement with 6th at Wolverhampton last start and I believe he is on the improve while Stalking Moon was a last start winner on the course & distance at Musselburgh and carried no more weight.
Yes, I know Musselburgh is in Edinburgh Scotland I have actually been to the races there before.
SAKHEE’S STAR SELECTED AT COUNTIES
SAKHEE’S STAR is nicely weighted to win again in race 3 at Counties. She has won ionce from 28 which is a poor strike rate but has been racing well recently for two seconds. The most recent at Rotorua 29th July. That was just 3 days after her second to last race at Matamata on the 26th July. I was gouing to do a study of those horses that are coming off a 7-day back-up then Sakhee’s Star crops up. She is coming off a 3-day back-up. there seems to be no better indication of wellness in horses than when a trainer is prepared to start them twice in a week. Apart from her current fitness, Sakhee’s star has 3 kilos ioff with Jasmine Fawcett riding her which brings her weight down to 51 kilos. ms Fawcett rode three winners last week including a double at Te Rapa so she is in form.
VENTURA (race 6) is certainly worth a bet. she is trained locally by Richard Collett who has just the one horse in tomoerrow. Ventura has started three times in heavy going for one win and two places. All of her recent races have been in Australia so this should be easier.
ADMIRAL (race 1) is a nother runner worth a bet, albetit an each-way one. He faces a drop in class and it must be a while since he has been out of Open Company. He also has 3 kilos off. I would have preferred him to haved raced at 1200 metres but he has won at the distance when successful in Open company last September ion the course. The hot favourite in the race will be BOWIE who has an extra 3 kilos to carry which will make it hard for him on a heavy track.
SULIMAN (race 2) is my selection for the Maiden 2100 metres. I don’t normally bet on these types of races but he did get beaten just narrowly last start, carries the same weight and has a good jockey. There are lots of promising types in the race that are best left till another day.
LUKE NICELY WEIGHTED AT RICCARTON
LUKE has a big drop in weight for the Millenium Hotels & Resorts Premier (race 5). Last Sarturday in the Winter Cup he carried 56 kilos but with a 3 kilo claim this time and the lower weight scale, he is down to just 50 kilos. SCAPOLO, IRISH EXCUSE, NASHVILLE, and DYNAMIC are all chances and you could make a good case for any of them but I think Luke is back at his favourite distance and that really should turn it into his favour.
In the following race, both THE MAN & SHEZATOUCHA are good chance at reasonable odds. The Man won on the course & distance 24 June two starts back and would have improved his with run last Saturday while Shezatoucha won well last start and has a light weight of just 51 kilos. Her rider Tina Cominaghi has won three races on the mare including when she won her last race. She must have a good strike rate on the mare because she never riode her on the four races prior to her recent win.
MASTER PLATINUM is the value runner in race 8. He has yet to strike form this winter but will improve with his run on the first day where he was checked. Lisa Latta, his trainer has a good record with horses on a 7-day back-up.
DOIKNOWYOU has a nice drop in weight for the Winter Cup. He finished second behind NASHVILLE who will again carry 60 kilos. PLATINUM COMMAND is the value runner but will be racing further than she has ever been before.
Other chances at Riccarton are MANDALAY (race 10) and HIGHBROOK (race 11)
Using tipsters to win
Using professional tipsters to select your horses for you requires you to put some faith into their selections but does have some advantages, namely that in instances when you do not have enough time to select your horses or do the necessary homework on the form or you believe that they can make a better job of it than you.
Whether you use the services of a professional tipster or select your own horses, the same basic rules of punting apply and the te main two are;
1-Never bet with money which you cannot afford to lose
2-Have a large enough bank in order to sustain you through a lean spell
There is no point in running out of money after a run of 12 losses because what will happen is that what would have been your 13th bet will come home at 12/1 and you will not have any money on it. These are probably the two most important rules of any sport where you are betting on the outcome.
Racing to Win in the UK provides is a service catering for UK racibng and you can find more info about them on this link;